Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

For those of you that look to NEV.SW as a possible early a.m. indication of interest in OSIR, today the Swiss exchange has a national holiday:

SIX Swiss Exchange Holidays 2013

January 1 Tuesday New Year’s Day
January 2 Wednesday Berchtoldstag
March 29 Friday Good Friday
April 1 Monday Easter Monday
May 1 Wednesday Labour Day
May 9 Thursday Ascension
May 20 Monday WhitMonday
August 1 Thursday National Day
December 24 Tuesday Christmas Eve
December 25 Wednesday Christmas Day
December 26 Thursday Boxing Day
December 31 Tuesday New Year’s Eve

Visit- SIX Swiss Exchange for more details.

Sentiment: Hold

Between roughly 10:20 a.m. and 12:30 p.m., three sales each of around 1900 shares dominated the trading, with each trade netting about $19,500. In the afternoon, between 1 pm and 2 pm, there were four larger sales of between 2600 and 3200 shares, of about $10.15 and $10.04, each netting between $2,6200 and $32,100. Whether a robotic (bot) program or not, the effect has been similar to Monday's smaller trades, i.e. to drive the share price down.

Sentiment: Hold

Very interesting trading. Stock price was essentially flat all day Monday until about 2:20 pm when over the next 20 minutes about 12,000 shares were offered for sale and the price fell from $10:45 to about $10. This seems to be a problem inherent for thinly traded stocks (only 32 million shares in existence) and for poorly followed stocks (only 2 analysts asked questions at the recent earnings conference call).

Osiris Therapeutics Announces First Quarter 2013 Financial Results

COLUMBIA, Md. – May 7, 2013 - Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIR), the leading stem cell company focused on developing and marketing products to treat medical conditions in inflammatory, cardiovascular, orthopedic and wound healing markets, announced today its results for the first quarter of 2013.
Highlights and Recent Developments
 Launched CartiformTM, viable cartilage mesh for the treatment of articular cartilage injury.
 Established and deployed a direct sales force for Grafix®, a premium cellular repair matrix for serious wounds including diabetic foot ulcers.
 Received title of Orphan Drug designation from European Medicines Agency (EMA) for Prochymal®.
 Defended a key patent, against an Australian opponent, covering the administration of mesenchymal stem cells for the treatment of inflammatory conditions involving the gastrointestinal tract.
 Quarterly product revenue rose to $4.1 million– representing a 38% increase over the prior quarter.
 Improved gross margin to 72% of revenue, with gross profit of $2.9M for the quarter.
 Ended the quarter with a strong cash, receivables and short-term investment position of $34.9 million.
“Our team's execution during the first quarter has given us a very strong start to 2013,” said C. Randal Mills, Ph.D., President and Chief Executive Officer of Osiris. “While we are pleased with our accomplishments, we are focused solely on the future.”
First Quarter Financial Results
Product revenues during the first quarter of 2013 were $4.1 million, compared to $1.1 million during the first quarter of 2012, an increase of 257%. Gross margin during the first quarter was 72% compared to 66% during the first quarter of 2012. Gross profit was $2.9 million during the first quarter of 2013 and $0.75 million during the same period of 2012

If you look at the past two years of the size of the short position in Osiris, you may note that after the price of Osir jumped to the $13 level in June of 2012, the short position grew larger during the next two months. In other words, in the relatively recent past, when strong volume came in on the buy side and the stock price increased in late June, a significant number of shorts in July and August saw it as an opportunity "invest in" or double down on the future decline in the price of the stock. It was AFTER Osir rose to the $13 level, that the volume of short positions rose from the 3.5 million to the 4.3 million level. Probably some shorts got out during June of 2012 and that may indeed have helped the stock to rise. But that does not show up in the stats. Rather, perhaps shorts don't think like you and me, and they don't get scared when the price goes up. The stats show that the big money for shorting sees a rise in the price of a thinly traded stock, such as Osir,as an opportunity for profiting down the road. That's what they seem to do. JMHO

Sentiment: Hold

14 minutes into Randy's presentation he said the following: "we are in the process of conducting a transaction which would have this product (prochymal) re-partnered with a good candidate to help take us forward." Admittedly ambiguous and no indication of what the nature of the "process" is (actual talks with one potential partner, or simply generally watching for emails of enquiry or engaged in negotiations with competing potential partners). So it tells us nothing new, but it's interesting none the less.

Sentiment: Hold

It may seem counter-intuitive to create a new smaller wound (skin graft) to heal a larger wound. But it usually is effective and surgeons feel very comfortable with this procedure which they have honed close to perfection. Given surgeons are generally a conservative group, getting them to change their mode of operation, literally, is a very big challenge for Osiris and any other firm with an innovative product. KCI and surgeons have a close working relationship. Although I am convinced that Osiris' use of mesenchymal stem cells in its products is a vastly superior method for a wide range of applications, Osiris' sales force does face a challenge which, to me, suggests a slow but steady increase of retraining medical personnel. Osiris will get there, gradually, IMHO.

Here's a random observation: This morning, on light volume, there has been consistent bouncing between $11.40 and $11.35 due to a sell and buy program, respectively. Meanwhile, the Osiris stock holding on the Swiss exchange, as the major portion of the NEV.SW fund, seems to have been buying pressure only and a rise in its share value. No conclusion. Just an observation.

Sentiment: Hold

6 times today, starting about 11 a..m., when Osir hit $9.87, that triggered an automatic sell and Osir then dropped. Not a big volume of shares, but it happened like clockwork.

Sentiment: Buy

Today's CNBC article, partially noted below, tells me some short traders are seeking refuge by shorting smaller stocks. But me thinks this simply delays their inevitable misfortune.

Stock Market Melt-Up Destroying Shorts
Published: Tuesday, 9 Apr 2013 | 3:06 PM ETBob Pisani By: Bob Pisani
CNBC "On-Air Stocks" Editor

Getty Images Another market melt-up. Forget Herbalife (HLF). The big story is the mountains of money being lost by traders who shorted the market at the open on Friday on the worst Jobs Report in years...and are being annihilated and forced to throw in the towel.

Let's be blunt: the market has gone straight up almost every minute since the Friday open. If you shorted at the open Friday--not an unreasonable bet--you're down about two percent.

"I see shorts panicking. If you shorted on the jobs number, you shorted at the lows," one head of a trading firm said to me.

Why? The trading community has little doubt who is pulling the strings and making the difference: the Central Bankers of the World (Inc). The employment report was good for the market because now the Fed can't exit. Melt higher.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Nothing to get excited about here, with "The Street" upgrading Osir to a "hold" based on its increase in stock price and "acceptable level of debt". That last phrase seems to be what their computer program generates, even if there is zero debt. That is a tip off that "The Street" has no one watching the store, so to speak, no one actually following Osiris who could say the obvious, that there is no debt. Seems the firm generates rankings for stocks simply as a way to garner new subscribers for itself. Often, when "The Street" and/or Cramer provides a ranking for a stock, whatever they say seems to function as a contrary indicator for serious investors. That being the case, it's fortunate they did not give Osiris a "buy" recommendation.

Sentiment: Hold

Two very recent sources of info for Osir followers include this morning's presentation at the Cananacord conference in Chicago. It is archived and available on the Osir website. Randy presented the story of Osir's 4 products' use and prospects. I am curious how many attended his talk. Heard nothing new but the story continues to be interesting. Also, Seeking Alpha interviewed former VP for Osir, Stephen Potter, on the prospects of Osir and other stem cell firms. That is worth reading to get a broader perspective on the field in which Osir is competing. He now serves on the board of directors for NBS (NeoStem).

Less loss equals big gain. There wasn't much mystery behind the major moves for stem cell company Osiris Therapeutics (NASDAQ: OSIR ) . Shares surged nearly 35% for the week after the company posted better-than-expected earnings results.

Osiris reported a net loss of $0.08 per share, compared with a $0.15-per-share gain in the same quarter of the prior year. However, analysts were expecting the loss to be much worse at $0.15 per share. Osiris also reported $3.1 million in revenue, down from $11 million in the same quarter for 2011. The big year-over-year difference stemmed from Sanofi's (NYSE: SNY ) cancellation of an agreement in early 2012.

Look for revenue to pick up for Osiris now that the company has built a direct sales force for Grafix, its wound healing implant for diabetic foot ulcers and other serious wounds. Its sales team currently focuses on 10 major metropolitan areas. The company expects to double this direct sales force over the coming year."

as an aside, the article mentioned Osiris and said the following (nothing new), but at least it is publicity:

Osiris Therapeutics

Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. (OSIR) is a leading stem cell company focused on developing and marketing products to treat medical conditions in the inflammatory, autoimmune, orthopedic and cardiovascular areas. Osiris' stem cell products have significant therapeutic potential because of their ability to regulate inflammation, promote tissue regeneration and prevent pathological scar formation.

Their main product in development against ARS, which is supported by a $225 million contract award received in 2008, is Prochymal™, a formulation of adult stem cells derived from bone marrow, to treat the potentially lethal complications of acute radiation syndrome (ARS). Prochymal™ is a highly purified formulation of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) that are grown in culture, permitting large-scale production. The MSCs utilized in Prochymal™ are isolated from the bone marrow of healthy adult donors. Because the cells can be expanded, thousands of doses can be produced from a single donation.

Final note