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Best Buy Co., Inc. Message Board

vipinkot47 698 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 minutes ago Member since: Jun 9, 2009
  • Reply to

    any guess what news could start a squeeze?

    by bottomfeeder001 Jan 29, 2015 3:57 PM
    vipinkot47 vipinkot47 Jan 30, 2015 1:48 AM Flag

    $200 buyback at this price will easily reduce the outstanding shares by a tleast 20 % or by 33 mil shares leaving only 120 ml shares.

  • @ $63.04 up $0.54 from 1/28

  • Reply to

    buyout odds?

    by sugarsail42 Jan 29, 2015 5:57 PM
    vipinkot47 vipinkot47 Jan 30, 2015 1:07 AM Flag

    It won't fly unless they are willing to pay $25/ sh and willing to absorb all the Cliffs' debt.

  • Reply to

    Why CLF is Dan Carman's #1 Pick for 2015...

    by vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 9:02 PM
    vipinkot47 vipinkot47 Jan 30, 2015 1:04 AM Flag

    surf..all I am saying is that to me LG now looks like a
    seasoned CEO who knows what he is doing and he turned around Metals,USA company in less than 2 years and took that stock from $3 to $22. He has also invested his own $1 mil in CLF stock..unlike Kirsch and Carraba.
    Talking about the price of IO pellet, do you know I saw on the web site that in China 63% Fe IO pellet sells for $130/ton plus 17% Vet tax and 62% Fe IO pellet sells for $122/ton plus 17%Vvet tax . So selling 62%-66% Fe pellet by CLF in USA is a bargain for US steel companies and they probably know this.
    I am try to find that info on the web site and post it ( China manufactured IO pellet) here .

  • Reply to

    $5.60 - $5.80 for the CCall

    by ohtaegun Jan 29, 2015 7:24 PM
    vipinkot47 vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 10:14 PM Flag

    oht ..please read my post on why CLF is #1 pick in 2015. You will get a real good idea..I bet!!

  • Reply to

    any guess what news could start a squeeze?

    by bottomfeeder001 Jan 29, 2015 3:57 PM
    vipinkot47 vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 10:08 PM Flag

    Read the #1 PICK POST IN ALL ITS 5 SEGMENTS. You will get a better idea of LG's abiiity and CLF's
    future.

  • Reply to

    Why CLF is Dan Carman's #1 Pick for 2015...

    by vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 9:02 PM
    vipinkot47 vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 10:04 PM Flag

    surf.. After having read the article in completion, I Now, feel more confident in his leadership of CLF. He took Metals,USA company from $3 to $22. Sorry I could not reproduce any Charts. I reproduced the article here in 5 segments,and is very interesting. Both Longs and Shorts should read them.
    .

  • Reply to

    Why CLF is Dan Carman's #1 Pick for 2015...

    by vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 9:02 PM
    vipinkot47 vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 9:51 PM Flag

    Lastly, his resume shows a track record of increasing shareholder value. In the two years after being named CEO of Metals USA in 2003, the share price of the company rose from $3.08 to $22.
    More Positives

    I have not mentioned Cliffs' other operating segments, which are Eastern Canadian Iron Ore, Asia Pacific Iron Ore, and North American Coal. Although I won't go into an analysis of all of these, I see one of two things happening. One is that the price of iron reverts back to its 10 year average of around $100/ton, in which CLF would be cash flow positive in all of its iron segments. The increase in spot price may allow them to sell their assets for a higher price than they could currently get now.
    If we are indeed approaching a cyclical low in the iron industry, and initiate a position is a company like CLF at the beginning of a cyclical bull market, we can take advantage of the inevitable increase in share prithat follows. Even a modest increase in the price of iron will catapult the stock to double or triple the level that it's at now.
    Conclusion

    In addition to the reasons that I've outlined above, a bet on Cliffs is a bet on America. A bet that Americans will continue to construct buildings, buy cars, and consume material goods. A bet that a century and a half old American enterprise has the resilience to survive a few strategic missteps. As Warren Buffett has so famously quoted, "it's never paid to bet against America. We come through things, but it's not always a smooth ride." At the present moment, Cliffs' path is bumpy, but it will survive. And once people realize that the sky isn't actually falling, CLF shareholders will prosper.

    Please read all 5 segments of this article that was emailed to me.It says alot good stuff about to come for CLF.

  • Reply to

    Why CLF is Dan Carman's #1 Pick for 2015...

    by vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 9:02 PM
    vipinkot47 vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 9:42 PM Flag

    continued...
    He has significant "skin in the game." According to the NASDAQ website, Goncalves has invested over $1 million of his personal wealth in CLF stock, thus has a vested interest in seeing the company maximize shareholder value. He recently upped his stake by 187,137 shares, bringing his total amount of shares owned to 264,137.

    Goncalves is committed to selling off non-core assets to help bolster liquidity and pay down long term debt. As the recent sale of Logan County Coal for $175 million illustrates, there is a market for these assets even while the industry is in a deleveraging.

    He has refinanced long term debt, so that no principal payments are due until 2018, which will give Cliffs ample time to stabilize and streamline their operations.

    Additionally, the recent asset writedown of $5.7 billion is genius because it is a non-cash charge, which does not impact its short term liquidity;but it provides tax loss carry forwards for years to come. This will reduce Cliffs' taxable income the foreseeable future, which will amplify profits and lead to outperformance in the quarters to come.

  • Reply to

    Why CLF is Dan Carman's #1 Pick for 2015...

    by vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 9:02 PM
    vipinkot47 vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 9:37 PM Flag

    Cliffs has known nothing but downgrades, short sellers, and pessimism the past feyears. However, people are failing to realize that Goncalves has taken actionable steps to return Cliffs to its former glory.

    He has decided to make the US Iron Ore business the company's number 1 priority. This is a smart idea, seeing as this segment has enabled Cliffs to be a viable entity for over 150 years and has the ability to be generate positive EBITDA even in depression like conditions.

    According to the most recent 10-Q, Cliffs' cash cost of mining for its U.S Iron Ore segment was $64.87 per ton. As I mentioned earlier, their most recent 10-Q explicitly states that Cliffs has a floor of $70/ton written into their supply agreements with their major customers. So even if the price of iron were to stay below $70 for over a year, Cliffs would earn roughly $110 million in EBITDA based on an annual production capacity of 22 million tons per year.

    Goncalves has authorized a $200 million share buyback, which will safeguard against aother collapse in share price and will mitigate downside risk. At the current price, the buyback would reduce shares outstanding by 20%.

  • Reply to

    Why CLF is Dan Carman's #1 Pick for 2015...

    by vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 9:02 PM
    vipinkot47 vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 9:28 PM Flag

    Iron Ore Price Collapse Will Weed Out Smaller Players

    As the slump in iron ore prices drags on, the high cost/less efficient players that came to market (mostly in China) during the past decade will ultimately be forced to idle their mines. As this continues to occur, the market will become less oversupplied and the seaborne price will rise. This link shows the cost curve for all of the world's iron ore miners. As you can see, with the price of iron currently around $68/ton, almost all of China's miners are unprofitable and will thus have to idle if this pricing trend continues. This data sheet from the U.S. Geological Survey shows the major iron producers' share of world production last year.

    China led world's iron production by far last year, producing 1,320 million tons, while Australia was second at 530 million tons, and Brazil third, at 398 million tons. If a majority of Chinese production goes offline in the next year, the seaborne price should rise in a big way.

    This will not only help Cliffs' revenues but it will also help switch the public perception of micompanies from extremely negative to positive. As Baron Rothschild famously quoted: "the time to buy is
    when there's blood in the street'
    continued...

  • Reply to

    Why CLF is Dan Carman's #1 Pick for 2015...

    by vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 9:02 PM
    vipinkot47 vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 9:06 PM Flag

    In addition to an oversupplied market, a slowdown in economic growth in China and a strong dollar have negatively impacted the price of iron ore. Although on the surface, these things seem like disturbing news for any company involved in the mining business, they are actually positives for Cliffs.

    Why?
    Cliffs' Dominant Position in North America

    Cliffs has been involved in the Great Lakes mining industry since 1847. Since that time, they have grown into the largest iron ore producer in the USA, accounting for over 40% of domestic iron ore production. Although the seaborne price of iron has taken a beating over the past few years, that does not effect Cliffs as much because their supply contracts are based on a 1 year average of the seaborne price. This reduces their exposure to the massive fluctuations that are inherent in the iron market. Further, there is a floor of $70/ton on those supply contracts, so even if the iron industry stays mired in a prolonged slump, Cliffs' USA mines will be EBITDA positive.
    Iron Ore Price Collapse Will Weed Out Smaller Players

    As the slump in iron ore prices drags on, the high cost/less efficient players that came to market (mostly in China) during the past decade will ultimately be forced to idle their mines. As this continues to occur, the market will become less oversupplied and the seaborne price will rise. This link shows the cost curve for all of the world's iron ore miners. As you can see, with the price of iron currently around $68/ton, almost all of China's miners are unprofitable and will thus have to idle if this pricing trend continues. This data sheet from the U.S. Geological Survey shows the major iron producers' share of world production last year.

    Continued...

  • Dan CarmanLong only, deep value, contrarian, long-term horizon
    Profile| Send Message|
    Follow (9 followers)
    Why Cliffs Natural Resources Is My Top Pick For 2015
    Jan. 29, 2015 10:13 AM ET | 29 comments | About: Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (CLF)

    Disclosure: The author is long CLF. (More...)
    Summary

    CLF is the largest producer of iron ore in North America.
    It is strategically positioned to increase profits in a weak seaborne market.
    CEO Lourenco Goncalves is fixing the problems that the past management refused to address.

    This article was sent to 12,292 people who get email alerts on CLF.
    Get email alerts on CLF »

    For the past 3 years there has been a whirlwind of negativity surrounding Cliffs. Let's look at the main reasons that Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE:CLF) has shed 90% of its market value since its 2011 peak.
    Irrational Exuberance

    The past management team, led by James Kirsch, fell victim to greed and irrational exuberance when they grossly overpaid for the Bloom Lake mine in 2011. The price of iron exploded from $60/ton in January 2008 to $187/ton in February 2011. As is the case during most market bubbles, people become infected with undue optimism and agree to overpay for assets because they believe that the price will keep increasing and that this is the "new normal."

    They paid $4.9 billion for a mine that needed further investments of $1 billion to become financially feasible in today's iron ore market. As of today, Bloom Lake is in the first step of restructuring, and will finally mark the end of a massively flawed expansion campaign.
    Iron Ore Collapse

    As the price of iron skyrocketed, many high cost producers entered the marketplace to capitalize. As has happened innumerable times in the past, the excess supply being created immediately impacted the spot price, causing a collapse in the price of iron from $187/ton to $68/ton (where it sits today).Iron Ore Spot Price

    Continued.

  • Reply to

    I Am sending a Message to LG This Evening...

    by vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 5:02 PM
    vipinkot47 vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 5:06 PM Flag

    All the others Longs here should send him an email, or letter or contact by phone call and register your
    frustryrations

  • And will post it here. It may NOT be as mallow but more effective and straight forward unless he throws in a trash can..

  • Reply to

    it wasn't 400 million off the long term debt

    by glenn54us Jan 29, 2015 1:07 PM
    vipinkot47 vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    .Hope he doesn't use Divy he took away for SH for paying bigger salary increases or fill pockets of his croonies with bonuses.. Hope he uses for cutting debt. now that BL is gcne , he can cut CAPEX down from $175 mi to $100 mil and cut S,G & A expenses from $150 mil to $120 Mil or less. He can also cut employees by h0%-20%.If any one wanna leave voluntarily, he should welcome it. If they were that good CLF would not be in shape they are now. Dow up over 200 points today and CLF down 6.5%.. what a F* joke this company has become over last 3 and 1/2 years. I am mad as Hell.

  • vipinkot47 vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    Hope CLF gets out of BL BK like US Steel did. .I am praying.

  • vipinkot47 vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    The way the bankruptcy laws are. . It was GROSS foolish . Carrraba should be hanged upside down from a tree. for paying $4.9 B for that #$%$.

  • Reply to

    it wasn't 400 million off the long term debt

    by glenn54us Jan 29, 2015 1:07 PM
    vipinkot47 vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 3:06 PM Flag

    Keep Dreaming. LG could had sold AP last Sept. when IO was $75 if he did not insist on getting right price.There were NO partners for BL mine and last Fall he may have been able to sell BL for some cash. Rem CASA said they will sell NON-core assets as soon as they took control of the Board... didnt say at right price, LG is arrogant and has No support of any analysts.

  • Reply to

    2 More Days to Go...

    by vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 11:09 AM
    vipinkot47 vipinkot47 Jan 29, 2015 2:56 PM Flag

    CASA said they will sell all non-core assets as soon as they take control of the company. didnt say at right price .. LG could had sold AP assets in August at much higher price when IO was $75/ton and now its at $62/ton.
    LG is arrogant and has no relationship with analysts.He needs to explain BL Bankruptcy, any secured claims and cost, also why diiminated and where $92mil of it is going , what is actual debt, discounted bond buying , going forward strategy etc etc..all these Questions and no answers.

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