Unlike ACI and WLT, CLF has earnings every year. Even last year they had a losses for the first 3 QTRs but then Q-4 was solid and irked out a net gain of $022 for the year 2014. This year should be much much better .
BL mine is NO longer accounted in Balance sheet.. so remove that loss of $30 mil per Qtr. Closing the mine and putting it in BK, will eventually bring upward of %500 mil plus when sold.. so its a net plus on both counts.
They have drastically reduced the cost of APIO operations and even IO at $60/ton, they make some money like $10 /ton EBITDA and Favorable currency exchange helps CLF. AUD is only @ $0.865 USD.
Both Coal mines Oak glove and Pinnacle will likely be sold in 1st half of 2015 and may bring $300mil-$400mil to reduce the debt further
CLF is getting $190 Mil Fed Tax Cash Credit because of Carraba related BL's and other Impairment charges.
So I think once the Q-1 results are out and when they beat the bloody MINUS $0.13 est of WS by a huge margin like they did in Q-4,14, This stock will get to $10 plus. LG took his old metals company's stock from $3 to $30-$35 and he can and will do the same. 2015 is a Pivotal year for CLF , LG and CASA..IMO
Can you believe what might be the cost of Essar IO pellet ? some Indian companies make pellet in India and their cost there is over $100 for 62 % fe and add the shipping cost to USA which is 10,000 miles away.. So why any steel mill will consider importing IO pellets when they can get from CLF for $100 or slightly under. LG is right Noone can bring IO in pellet form here under $100 .
Good post. Thanks. I agree with you. It has already lost 95% value from its high and at this price its a good(or great) value and now it has a right MNG for turnaround....I think .
May be because Moody gave a "STABLE" rating based on CLF's positive Cash Flow. I think LG will surprise WS with Positive number. Analysts' E.est for Q-1 are minus $0.13
LG needs to come up with at least $150 mil EBITDA for Q-1,15 to have some $0.25-$0.35 E. per sh. If he can do that I think WS will look at CLF impressively. Q-3 ,14 EBITDA was $267 mil and Q-4 ,14 EBITDA was $297 mil.
matt..I tend to agree with you. I am NOT sure what they may get out of BL mine but even if they get $500 mil, they should take and run and close the chapter on it and use it to reduce debt by buying discounted bond/notes.
I am also of the opinion that they should sell APIO even though its CF positive so far. I
believe,LG is in WA to make a speech at some Metals Conference and while there hope he can find a buyer like RIO,BHP or Fortescue to buy APIO assets and never have to look at SB IO price again if he sells it .
And, lastly but not the least, Hope he can do for Q-1 like what he did for Q-4,14. Current E.est. are for a loss of $0.13. If he can produce $0.30-$0.50 in earnings then this stock will move up to $10 a tleast. He will have to tell this to Media in no uncertain words that he is in control and CLF is on the way up.
Just can't figure out this stock... if it will be up or down tomorrow, This stock is nothing but the royal pain for last 30 month but its too late to get out now. If LG does for Q-1 what he did for Q-4, I think we are on the way up
What is preferred dividend cost is ..per year.. do you know?I know its $51 mil..is that per year or QTR? let me know if you do
surf..I think something is a miss here.. or CLF will not be ready to hit a new low after a gang buster Q-4 results..its only 5 cents short of new low and No one from MNGT is defending it.... just like Kirsch and Carrabba used to do and some
analysts are killing this stock's price with their talk of BK and downgrades
I say sell 2 coal mines for anything over $ 300mil and bring a FAST resolution to BL closure and use any cash just to reduce debt and make sure that Q-1 results beat Earnings and cash flow estimates.
surf...How CLF could be in violation of debt covenant when debt is NOT due till 2018 and cash tax
benefits of $190 mil will be enough to pay interest on debt.. What is your opinion?
When we needed them. I think Debt is not due till 2018 and cash Tax benefits of $190 mil due to impairment charges related ECan mines, APIO and Sale of Logan county coal mine will be sufficient to pay interest on the debt.
They are NOT in violation of anything That analyst is an AH and LG needs to make strong statements defending CLF in the media. CLF made $166 mil in q-4 when analysts were projecting $25 mil. and they will make atleast $50 mil in Q-1 ,15.
CLF dropped 8% plus today sofar as some guy named John Seward from Benziga said CLF to go in BK and restructure in Q-3. Whats happening all of a sudden? LG MUST MUST sell all the Non core assets fastest and cut down debt.
I wonder why the other Coal companies like Walter Energy and Arch Coal inspite of 10 times or more debt to equity ratios.. noone talks about their bankruptcy?
I think LG is in Western Australia(WA) making some speech at Iron Ore Conference. He needs to sell 2 coal mines fast , reduce debt and concentrate and expand USIO business. Thats only CLF's salvation. BL mine will take time . Yes.. Tax benefit of cash $190 mil should take care of their interest payment.
NO analyst has any good thing to say about CLF and LG is NOT defending all the good stuff he has done. Like AA, TSLA and CSCO CEOs going on CNBC, LG needs to go on CNBC and hammer all the shorts by intelligently explaining what he has plans for CLF about lowering debt, increasing earnings and lowering exposure to SB IO. He also Must sell 2 Coal mines fast to use proceeds to lower debt.
I agree. and thats why LG needs to defend CLF against Axiom Capital and others in media. and expedite the sale of remaining 2 coal mines and ONLY BE in US Operations which are still shielded from SB IO pricing. Axiom has cut the CLF stock price from $9 to $2 now.