CLF and LG Must find more IO pellet business in USA to make up for lower IO price. Both CLF and steel companies should move more in Europe as It shows more signs of hope.
LG will make Analysts fall on their faces who are estimating Q-1 loss of $0.18. Like he reported Good
earnings of $023 for Q-3 ( when loss was expected) and $1.00 plus for Q-4 ( when Est. was $0.14), But he gets No credit. My E. est. are $0.12-$0.25 /sh for Q-1. We should know it in about 2 weeks. LG just loves to surprise WS. You can count on it .
He also said in Q-4 CC that the Preferred Dividend is NOT safe and may be cut any time. That can save $52 Mil per year. This is all good if it helps to move up stock price.
It CLF shipped 3 mil tons of IO pellets...
$30/ton margins x 3 mil tons = $90 mil USIO gross margins
$5/ton margins x 2 to 3 mil tons =$13 mil APIO gross margins
Total EBITDA. for Q-1....................$103 mil total gross margins vs $297 mil Q-4 EBITDA
$45mil interest + $25 mil Dep/Am + $13 mil preferred Divy= $ 83 mil
$103 mil mnus $83 mil = $20 mil before taxes minus $2 Fed Tax =$18 mil net profit or
$0.12/sh Q-1,15 Earnings
$45 mil interest + 25 mil Dep/Am + $13 mil preferred Divy= $83 mil
297 mil EBITDA - $83 mil = $214 mil minus $30 mil BL loss = $184 mil profit before tax
$184 mil minus $18 mil Fed tax @ 10% = $166 mil .. Earnings that CLF reported
hey solar... have you thought about checking into the Mental facility? might be good for you to stay there a few days.
Gone to find a new Short ..will they ever returnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn...???
If LG wants to sell 2 remaining Coal mines and Asia/Pac(AP) IO mine he can find buyers if he tries hard
actively and NOT insist on the so called "RIGHT PRICE". Get rid off them at best available price and concentrate on expanding US IO business from 22 mil tons to 30 mil Tons., and never look back to SB IO price. Also finalize BL Complex now in BK.. Actively find a Canadian Miner buyer with help of Quebec Gov.
GE just announced a sale of number of their assets and stock shot up.
Debt was $3.2B when LG took the control and it was $2.6 B before $129 mil reduced further by Bond Exchange.which will make it under $2.5B. Plus you won't know till CC what more he has sold like other 2 coal mines.
Note 63% Fe pellets price @ $89-$93/ton and 64% Fe pellet price @$92-$97/ton. This means that SBIO fines price has NO COMPARISON or RELATION to Pellets price... in India , China or in USA with CLF. So CLF's pellet price will remain in high $80's to in $90's at least and margins will be $30/ton plus. BMO needs to know this.
Even High FE grade lumps are going for in $80's/ton
IRON ORE DOMESTIC PRICES ON 09/04/2015
GRADE PLACE CONTENT SPECIFICATION RATES IN INR/TON ~PRICE IN (US$/TON)
60 Orissa 5-18 mm Lumps 3000 - 3550 48 - 57
62 Orissa 5-18 mm Lumps 3900 - 4450 63 - 72
63 Orissa 5-18 mm Lumps 5400 - 5950 87 - 96
64 Orissa 5-18 mm Lumps 5500 - 6050 89 - 97
60 Orissa 10-30 mm Lumps 0 - 0 0 - 0
62 Orissa 10-30 mm Lumps 3700 - 4050 60 - 65
63 Orissa 10-30 mm Lumps 5100 - 5300 82 - 85
64 Orissa 10-30 mm Lumps 5300 - 5500 85 - 89
61 Orissa - Fines 1700 - 2000 27 - 32
62 Orissa - Fines 1850 - 2100 30 - 34
63 Orissa - Fines 1950 - 2250 31 - 36
63 Orissa - Pellets 5500 - 5800 89 - 93
63 Orissa - Blue Dust 2050 - 2350 33 - 38
64 Orissa - Pellets 5700 - 6000 92 - 97
63 Orissa - Pellets 5500 - 5800 89 - 93
In response to BMO's Downgrade....
II repeat my SA comment: How are Cliffs' pellets "becoming more linked to global prices" - are USIO contracts expiring anytime soon? No. This is another of the type of vague statement that is designed only to move price down, and is not substantiated in fact. It won't matter - the goal is to promote fear and it will work to some extent. Cliffs' pellets are linked to global pricing in the same way they have been before - they are NOT "more" linked. Instead of saying something like "Cliffs' contracts provide protection from global pricing" - something that cannot be said of the large producers in the seaborne market, we get this BS. As for Cliffs' Australian operations - they are still profitable, will be less so that before - and accounted for a small portion of the company's overall profits that will get smaller. Funny, we used to hear nothing but that Australia was a "drag" on Cliffs, even when it was increasingly cash flow positive (due to cost cutting and optimization efforts) in spite of falling ore prices! Now, suddenly, we hear it has been a "strong cash flow generator" thahow will disappear - as though Cliffs depended on it. The producers that will really be hurt the most are the big boys, and the Chinese. It now appears however, that the latter will be subsidized by the Chinese government, producing the "mess" that Cliffs' CEO warned of, while being derided for doing so.
skit.. its hard to figure you out.. You bash and then you inject some sarcastic humor...for and against CLF.
atrue..I dont know if BMO is rewarded by big Shorts. I try NOT to deal in speculation . If this stock when gets to $15 ( above my breakeven $14), I am taking and running.....selling 80% of my shares.
yes..we will see but I am sure LG will produce earnings. Yes.. he can be a bit mellow and not turn off
Analysts . But I can't really blame him as WS , Analysts, CNBC/Bloomberg, Cramer all bashing this company.
Ty..oht for your words of wisdom!! Weren't you the one telling about 3 months ago that CLF was a good stock around $9 and you bought a bunch. So now you are bashing @ $5. You and solar are alike ..here just to bash all Longs..
Next.. I want to tell you the old MNGT of Kirsch and Carraba destroyed this company spending $4.9 B to buy BL Complex when IO prices at the peak.They were spending over $850 mil in CAPEX and $450 mil on SG&A and reported losses in 1st half of 2014 even though IO was wellover $100. Its going to take more time for LG to fix this company. He has slashed CapEx to $100 mil and SG&A to $120 mil and has reduced LT debt from $3.2 B to $ 2.6 B in less than 8 months. Under LG , CLF reported $0.23 operating profit for Q-3 when SB IO was $80 and $1.00 Earnings for Q-4 under when SB IO was @ $70 and I expect him to report profit for Q-1,15 and make Analysts fall flat on their faces. He is or will be selling remaining non-core assets and further reduce debt under $2 B. Analysts are wrongly lumping SB IO price with high Fe Content IO pellets and don't know the difference. Wait till Q-1 results and CC . Analysts are estimating a loss of $0.18 but he will report a good profit. Analyst have been bashing CLF more than any of the almost bankrupt, Peabody and Arch Coal and Walter Energy companies.
Before you dash off another negative post in response to this post.. just think what I have said in this and other posts here ..ok?
No one seems to respect CLF or LG and thats a shame.
ca.. you are entitled to your opinion, but CLF was destroyed by the past MNGT and sure LG has made some mistakes not selling some of non-core assets earlier but no one knew that SB Io price will tank this LOW. I think LG is now on the ball and I expect Q-1 will have Earnings like $0.20/sh compared to Analysts est. of ($0.18) loss . LG surprised Analysts and produced Operating E. in Q-3 of $0.23 and $1.00 in Q-4 but still he got NO praise.
Its probably an INSIDE INFO. ..but my guess is that its over $85/ton and CLF's cash cost is close to $55 inclusive of SG&A.