And then we will know whats the fate of BL mine is. LG has already said he will have a resolution for BL by the end of the year. Lets see what he does. Likely to place BL mine subsidiary in BK like US Steel did for their Can subsidiary. But we will have to be tortured for 2 more weeks before we know the status of good old BL.... the root cause of all CLF's evils.. I say Good Riddance !!
#$%$ CLF care .Only APIO goes to China and its a very small part of their total business. Once they close BL mine in early January, and take the closing cost most operations are CF positive... even APIO. so why worry about SB IO. Let RIO , BHP and Vale worry about China's PMI and SB IO
Every thing CLF has is CF positive except the BL mine. Once there is a closure to BL mine, even MET Coal and APIO are CF positive and USIO will have even better margins with lower energy cost . All this will drive out Shorts and make them cover once they realize that.
I don't know why LG waited so long on BL mine.. He could had closed it in October w/o waiting for partners and Q-4 earnings would be much better.
sugar.. you will see action from LG soon after year is over when he announces a specific
solution for BL and puts it behind the bleeding #$%$. Low oil price is good for mining and pelletizing IO... Will help improve profit margins . I expect with BL behind, Q-1,15 Earnings may be close to $0.50 plus.
I see No short squeeze until the major announcement on BL which is the culprit for earnings. Once BL Subsidiary is put in BK like US Steel did 2 months ago, this stock will move up and shorts will cover
IF no Equity participation by Nucor or others by 12/31, in the 1st week of 2015 ,LG will make a major nouncement on the closure of BL mine from the chatters I hear. He doesn't want bigger losses that may amount to as much as $40/MT
surf.. I think LG knows it well and the buyer will have to assume all the liabilities including honoring 3 yrs railway contracts.
LG will sell BL mine for any price rather than close it down in BK and get done with it. He will only sell sell APIO and MET Coal mines at right price
lishe.. if No JV by 12/31, LG will close down BL mine by putting it in BK and protect the parent comny. Closing cost .of BL mine if declare BK will be much lower than the normal closing. LG says ke knows about it and will likely go for putting BLsubsidiary in BK at a closing cost of $300-$400mil.
Low crude price is good for CLF for lower energy cost related mining and pelletizing IO in USA Operations
If Aussie dollar stay around $0.82 it will lower CLF's APIO production cost and still be profitable at even$ $68 per MT.
LG needs act FAST on ECan BL mine Subsidiary. They can protect the parent company by putting the subsidiary in BK like US Steel did 2 months ago.Canadian Companies Creditor Arrangement Act(CCAA) allows CLF to deconsolidate its Canadian subsidiary thus protecting the parent company from liabilities on its Canadian Subsidiary books. With BL in BK, the closure cost will be much lower around $300-$400 mil ( as they will not have to honor Railway Contracts for 3 years) vs $600 -$700m mil for normal closure cost. I hope we have some news on this by 12/31/14. LG knows about BL mine BK possibility and he made a point of it in his 10/27 CC.
Once the BL mine issue is resolved , it will improve the overall cash Flow as there will be NO $250 mil /year BL mine losses to carry in QTRLY earnings .After that CLF's much of business will be in USA and they have a minimum $70 floor price on Contracts with Steel companies. The BL bleeding Must be stop one way or another by the end of 2014.
Q-4 E est are still positive of $0.18 by some 16 analysts . With some dividend cut and Depreciated Notes buyback, their CF and earnings will begin to move higher in 2015..IMO
lishe...LG is NOT going to wait too long on BL mine. If Nucor is interested in providing 30% Equity that LG says is needed, They have to move fast. LG wanted this thing to be documented and signed before 12/31 and begin the Phase II operations soon. I don't know how serious Nucor is but its a great JV opportunity for both Nucor and CLF .
Having said that, I believe,LG is NOT going to wait too long as BL mine losses eat into other profits. So if this is going to happen, it will be very shortly and some announcement one way or another should be coming in the beginning of next year.
WLT is reporting huge losses QTR after QTR for last 2 years. CLF is expected to report $0.18 E. for Q-4 per analysts and had Operating profit of $0.21 in Q-3. So please don't comp[are apples and oranges .
surf.. I asked you if Nucor is putting 30% equity in BL JV for Phase II
operation to go thru? How do you know ?
surf.. What is the news on a deal with Nucor? Are they putting 30% equity into BL mine to make a Phase II proceed? LG said he needs 30% Equity besides 17% already have from Wuhan IO and Steel. Let us know whats going on if you know. Thanks.
oht.. we may see some major announcement coming shortly to turn around this company. it will happen in early 2015.