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Linn Co, LLC Message Board

virtua98 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 14, 2015 10:10 AM Member since: Mar 13, 2002
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  • virtua98 by virtua98 Jan 14, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    MPET an Even Better Buy

    Oil is down---$45/barrel--Tax Loss Selling is over
    MPET is down yet estimates of Assets still valid since most
    estimates were based on only $3/barrel Present Value.
    In fact MPET Potential could be greater with the added
    Option to Buy the Large Farnham Dome CO2 Reservoir
    and nearby acreage in Utah and Horse Hill 1 well success.
    12/03/14 Press Release Farnham Quotes:
    “Long-Term, Low-cost source of CO2 will result in
    profitable projects at current oil prices or even below”.
    “It is our belief that well managed low cost CO2 projects
    compete well with even the better unconventional plays”.
    “Opportunity to increase Reserves at attractive costs”.
    12/17/14 UK Horse Hill 1 well confirmed successful
    with 1400 ft. thick hydrocarbon zone only 3500 ft deep !
    This well, and the nearby Balcombe well with their lease
    extended for 35 years, have multiple zones including the
    Kimmeridge Clay which was 90% of the prolific North Sea
    production. This confirms & enhances MPET's Weald Value.
    Antoine Lafargue VP is now assigned to key growth and
    Strategy Development to sell and/or partner Weald Assets
    and monetize Australia Offshore.
    Also, MPET is NOT Fracking—Their Conventional wells
    are lower cost, they have no Debt so can borrow to finance
    Farnham Dome CO2. Insiders and Institutions still own 65%
    and are holding. Several near term events can cause Values
    to be recognized even in the current environment. BUY.

  • Reply to

    "Dark Shadow" --- BARRON'S

    by avi.morax Jan 12, 2015 5:52 PM
    virtua98 virtua98 Jan 13, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    Glad MPET is NOT Fracking
    CO2 EOR Conventional wells in Poplar are promising
    UK Kimmeridge Clay—Horse Hill 1 and Balcombe 35 year Lease are Conventional wells
    UK Weald “sweet spot” value may be monetized by new VP Antoine LaFarge
    Naturally Fractured wells cost less and are not the target of OPEC or Environmentalists
    MPET currently has no debt and can borrow to acquire Farnham Dome CO2
    SO, MPET is in better position than many yet has been driven down along with others
    MPET still has 8 valuable assets far from middle east, insiders and Institutions still own
    65% and are holding, and several near term events could cause value to be recognized.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Some here seem happy

    by networthgrowing Jan 5, 2015 8:32 PM
    virtua98 virtua98 Jan 6, 2015 7:28 AM Flag

    Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffet) vice -chairman Charles Munger comments:
    “Oil is absolutely certain to become incredibly short in supply and very high priced”.
    “Oil in the ground that you are not producing is a national treasure”.
    “Every barrel that you use up that comes from someone else is a barrel of your precious
    oil which you're going to need to feed your people and maintain your civilization”.

    Obviously a long range perspective—something totally missing today.
    THINK IT OVER

  • virtua98 by virtua98 Jan 2, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    U.K. Kimmeridge Clay

    Source Rock for 90% of the production in the North Sea
    Naturally Fractured conventional layers (Fracking NOT required)
    Analysis of Cuadrilla's Balcombe well on the edge of basin resulted in
    Lease being extended for 35 years
    MPET's Leases are in the center “sweet spot” of Weald Basin
    Horse Hill 1 well analysis of Kimmeridge Clay to complete this month
    1000 ft. thick zone at only 3500 ft deep—Naturally fractured
    Recent change of VP Antoine Lafarue to Strategy and Business Development
    will allow increased attention to UK development or partial or full sale.

    Tax loss selling is over----Several positives in near future--
    Time for Shorts to Cover

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • virtua98 virtua98 Dec 21, 2014 8:50 PM Flag

    Dear avimoron, the high expense of operating in the north sea just enhances the interest in the onshore weald sweet spot that mpet owns with kimmeradge clay conventional drilling.. just makes mpet better thanks for pointing this out to everyone

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sir John (Templeton) paraphrased

    by wright.tom64 Dec 9, 2014 8:36 AM
    virtua98 virtua98 Dec 10, 2014 5:47 AM Flag

    MPET CONSIDERATIONS

    Eight (8) significant Assets in US, UK, and Australia—Far from middle east
    Insiders own 49% and Institutions own 15% = 64% = Low Float
    New management with plans and incentives to monetize all Assets
    Recent assignment of Lafargue to Strategy/Business Development
    No. 1 Strategy is CO2 EOR at Montana Poplar Dome
    3 Zones in Charles Formation—4 new wells + older wells
    Six (6) other zones, and Deep Bakken/3 Forks Zones
    Value estimates from $4.50 to $8.50/share and add
    Option to Buy Farnham Dome CO2 by March 30th
    No. 2 Asset is UK Weald Basin 125,000 net acres in “sweet spot”
    Analogous sale of land at $2,000/acre = $3.40/share for MPET Value
    UK Geological Service Estimate MPET P90 = 748 million barrels Oil
    748 x $3/barrel = $2.2 billion—If only15% recovery = $4.50/share
    Nearby Caudrilla successful well lease was extended to 35 years
    3 wells in process to Derisk/Prove Value
    Nearby Wytch Farm “3 pad” approach is model for MPET Weald Basin
    Australia Offshore 1 to 3 TCF Gas (2 brightspots) Potential Farmout
    Central Petroleum Onshore Gas & Oil Investment + Helium & Bonuses
    Total MPET Value Estimate from $2.40 to $16.50 per fully diluted share
    “Fire Sale” Heavy Discount and Sell all tomorrow = $2.40/share
    MPET chart briefing Estimate = $6.00/share
    “Minimum Realistic” Estimate = $7.90/share
    Potential Estimate = $16.50/share

    All these estimates are detailed and made before the potential Farnham Dome CO2 Buy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sir John (Templeton) paraphrased

    by wright.tom64 Dec 9, 2014 8:36 AM
    virtua98 virtua98 Dec 9, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    See "CONSIDERATIONS"

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    WHAT IS THE BREAKEVEN OIL PRICE FOR POPLAR?

    by carson7277 Dec 1, 2014 8:27 AM
    virtua98 virtua98 Dec 1, 2014 9:11 AM Flag

    MPET has always been an asset play and many of the valuations have used only $3/boe in estimate.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • virtua98 by virtua98 Dec 1, 2014 8:57 AM Flag

    ValueHunter35 posted a “MPET Fire Sale' Minimum Value recently
    He stated a value “If forced to liquidate tomorrow” of only $154 million
    or $2.02/share for the fully diluted 76.2 million shares. His values were:
    Poplar NPV 10 is $97 million—Easily get 1/3rd = $32.3 million
    Weald Core $500/acre = $62.5 million
    Weald non core $250/acre = $12.5 million
    Australia Offshore—Half of MPET's $30 million = $15 million
    Central stock 39.5 million shares = $10.7 million
    Net cash = $21 million
    Total = $154 million

    He requested comments—My comments are:

    Reduce cash by $7 million to $14 million
    ADD for Deep Bakken/3 Forks 50% of 22,000 acres = $26 million
    Analogoes sales of similar at $12,000/acre—Discount 80%
    ADD for exercise of options to get to fully diluted = $10 million
    Net Change ADD $29 million for revised Total = $183 million = $2.40/share

    Interesting to Note that this is greater than the $2.35 Incentive for some Options.
    Do you think management would settle for Less ? No way ! Strong Buy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buy MPET

    by alyssavictoria98 Nov 28, 2014 11:37 PM
    virtua98 virtua98 Nov 30, 2014 9:33 PM Flag

    ValueHunter35 posted a “MPET Fire Sale' Minimum Value recently
    He stated a value “If forced to liquidate tomorrow” of only $154 million
    or $2.02/share for the fully diluted 76.2 million shares. His values were:
    Poplar NPV 10 is $97 million—Easily get 1/3rd = $32.3 million
    Weald Core $500/acre = $62.5 million
    Weald non core $250/acre = $12.5 million
    Australia Offshore—Half of MPET's $30 million = $15 million
    Central stock 39.5 million shares = $10.7 million
    Net cash = $21 million
    Total = $154 million

    He requested comments—My comments are:

    Reduce cash by $7 million to $14 million
    ADD for Deep Bakken/3 Forks 50% of 22,000 acres = $26 million
    Analogoes sales of similar at $12,000/acre—Discount 80%
    ADD for exercise of options to get to fully diluted = $10 million
    Net Change ADD $29 million for revised Total = $183 million = $2.40/share

    Interesting to Note that this is greater than the $2.35 Incentive for some Options.
    Do you think management would settle for Less ? No way ! Strong Buy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • virtua98 by virtua98 Nov 25, 2014 8:27 AM Flag

    U.K. Kimmeridge Clay

    Source Rock for 90% of the production in the North Sea
    Naturally Fractured conventional layers (Fracking NOT required)
    Analysis of Cuadrilla's Balcombe well on the edge of basin resulted in
    Lease being extended for 35 years
    MPET's Leases are in the center “sweet spot” of Weald Basin
    Horse Hill 1 well analysis of Kimmeridge Clay to complete by Dec 11th
    (annual meeting)
    Recent change of Antoine Lafarue to Strategy and Business Development
    will allow increased attention to UK development
    Time for Shorts to think about covering

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • virtua98 virtua98 Nov 17, 2014 8:44 PM Flag

    To $3.75--was $4.25 However Still a recommended BUY based on 3 strong assets

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • virtua98 by virtua98 Nov 15, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    Picture this:
    A small company has 8 large assets in U.S, U.K., and Australia far from the middle east chaos.
    They have cash, no debt, investments that can be sold if needed, and a line of credit at prime rate (currently 3.25%). Assets are poorly understood but new Management took over 2-3 years ago.
    Insiders now own 49% and Institutions own 15% = 64% of the fully diluted shares.
    The resulting small float leads to a volatile share price—and ease of manipulation.
    The stock price has been $1, $2.50, $1.85, $1.60, and $1.40 this year.
    A detailed look at the trading prices and volumes during pre, regular, and post market hours strongly
    suggests manipulation is occurring. Examples occur daily—Sales DOWN on only 100 or 200 shares followed by Buys UP on 2000, 3000, or more shares. Traders and manipulators are active--
    Investors are buying, holding and accumulating. Net Asset Value estimates are from $6.00, $8.00,
    and more per fully diluted share. Three analysts estimate $4.25/share within 12 months.
    Farm Outs and Sales will likely occur within the 8 large assets. When these happen they will be
    sudden, without warning, and significant. Management is motivated to monetize all assets.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What is wrong?

    by evan.shoal Nov 6, 2014 2:08 PM
    virtua98 virtua98 Nov 7, 2014 9:39 AM Flag

    The British Geological Survey reported a P90 estimate of 2.2 billion barrels of Original Oil In Place (OOIP) in the UK Weald Basin Shale. They Ignored any oil between shale layers. MPET/Celtique Leases are in the center of the Weald and are 70% of the Basin. MPET's 50% of that = 770 million barrels of OOIP. At 20% Recoverable = 154 million barrels. At only $3/barrel = $462 million.
    With 75 million fully diluted shares = $6.16/share WITHOUT tight oil between layers AND
    without gas.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • MPET Minimum Value

    POPLAR Charles Zone CO2 EOR-----------------------50 million BOE X $3 = $150 million
    Analogy 17% = 85 million BOE---Charles had NO Water Flood—Only $3/BOE

    POPLAR: Deep Bakken/3 Forks Zones------------------11,000 acres X $6,000 = $66 million
    Analogy to sales at $12,000 per Undeveloped acre—Discount 50%
    Even though US Geological Service has increased potential estimates
    POPLAR: Other 6 Zones --------------------------------------------Estimate of only $40 million
    TOTAL POPLAR = $256 million = $3.40/share

    UK PEDL 137 Horse Hill 1 ----------------------------------------------------------Ignore---Zero
    UK Weald: -----------------Analogy Previous sales = $2,100/acre X 126,000 = $265 million
    British Geological Survey = P50 of 4.4 billion BOE---Just for Weald Shale
    Up to 1,000 ft. shale plus tight conventional Oil in between shales--Ignore
    Conventional Gas targets up to 2 TCF--Ignore
    Note: After core samples Cuadrilla extended their Lease Life to 35 years
    TOTAL UK = $265 million = $3.50/share

    Australia Offshore 1 to 3 TCF Gas--2 “Bright Spots”
    IF Retain only 10% of 1 TCF = 167 million BOE X 10% X $3/BOE = $50 million
    Central Petroleum 39.5million shares X 50 cents = $20 million
    Santos and CPT and Helium Bonus = $10 million
    TOTAL Australia = $80 million = $1.00/share

    TOTAL Minimum Present Value = $600 million = $7.90/diluted share

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

LNCO
9.40+0.080(+0.86%)Jan 23 4:00 PMEST

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