You guessed it ..... Deflation!
The price drop is only 40-50 cents and climbing...I guess one has to consider the intrinsic value of the of the Company in case of a takeover/buyout.
How much do they sell at spot prices,how long, and what price are the contracts remain important considerations in determining the DCF. If they have long term contracts for a specific quantity and price, what role do the hedges play ?
Also in that article
That does not mean Saudi Arabia necessarily expects such prices next year -- Finance Minister Ibrahim Alassaf said on Thursday there was a great difference of opinion over when prices would start rebounding, with some people predicting the second half of next year and others 2016.
In past years, Saudi budgets commonly based their calculations on oil prices far below current levels. For example, the 2014 budget assumed an oil price below $70; when the budget plan was announced, Brent crude was trading at $111.
But they also said that there trying to be more realistic now when budgeting
I always believed that you had until the end of the year based on trade date...but I usually take losses before this time ..so when I googled it I got several websites reporting the settlement as the date. I noticed that they were Canadian, but they all said the same thing . They couldn't be all wrong...well guess what they were.. Thanks for clarifying... so we still have 3 more days to wait for tax losses to end .
I thought so too, but after reading several websites ...I guess its today...here's another site saying the same thing
So he's flip flopping ..No real conviction either way
Oil's massive slide may soon be coming to an end, with the commodity staying near its current price or going a "tad" lower, investor Dennis Gartman told CNBC Friday.
"I doubt that we're going to see a great good deal lower on oil prices from here. The vast majority of the move is probably well behind us, thankfully," he said in an interview with "Closing Bell."
On Friday, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures ended the session up 4.45 percent at $56.52 a barrel while benchmark Brent hovered around $62, gaining 5 percent.
On a weekly basis, though, Brent and U.S. crude were headed for a fourth straight week of losses and both have lost roughly 50 percent since their June highs.
Gartman has been watching the term structures for crude futures for an indication on oil's direction. While signs had been bearish, with the front months leading the way down, he said over the past couple days the term structure has started to move in the other direction.
Debt is one of the reasons Linn is at this price.....However debt is not due for 4 1/2 years..So I think they can start planning to handle this issue. A lot can happen over 4 1/2 years.. look what happened in 3 months.
I agree , there is certainly more reason to sell here rather than buying. Last minute stragglers wanting to get there Y/E tax losses. I always do this myself at the end of the year. Also, I think most of the bad news is priced into the stock . Low oil prices, distribution cut, lack of management guidance, fear, low nat gas prices, etc..
I think mos who haven't sold by now are probably going to hold, leaving the Y/E tax sellers keeping pressure on shares until Y/E.
The money managers preyed on the fears that the deal wouldn't close and drove the price down to ridiculous levels implying that there was an immediate credit risk when in reality debt is not due for 4 1/2 years. Even if one does not believe in manipulation you have to admit this was suspicious.
HOUSTON, Dec. 15, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- LINN Energy, LLC (LINE) ("LINN" or the "Company") and LinnCo, LLC (LNCO) ("LinnCo") announced today that LINN has closed the previously announced sale of its entire position in the Granite Wash and Cleveland plays located in the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma to privately held institutional affiliates of EnerVest, Ltd. and FourPoint Energy, LLC at a contract price of $1.95 billion (the "Granite Wash sale"), subject to pre- and post-closing purchase price adjustments.
Watch everything that is happening.
The news piles on , it becomes distorted.
The analyst pile on issuing sell ratings.
The shorts pile on with naked shorting.
And you a wondering if your counter decision is crazy.
After a year passes ... all is forgotten, and you look back and say I could have bought that stock when it was XXX$ but for some reason you didn't..... That is how the game is played over and over again....And yes once in while an Enron surfaces to give even more credence to the doomsday machine.
The reverse also is true...A stock goes up and all the news is wonderful, analysts raise their price, and you think you'll wait a little longer until one day everything changes.
Welcome to the world of investing .
The large % of LNCO @ 19% is what makes this possible...I rechecked that number and that is the number. don't forget I also have other higher income investments like a few BDC;s, some closed end funds yielding 8% like PDT and JRI for example. Some muni funds like EIM. This is the point I was try to make with my 15-17% holding of LNCO. It makes these numbers work for me. Each investor has to find that risk/reward balance that makes them comfortable.
My main objective now is just income, I've already made the bulk of money and am retired so I am able to have around 5-6% overall yield on my portfolio. If LNCO cuts it will drop to 3-4 %. But this is much better than having a full Stock Portfolio of trying to get this yield, and having 70-80% of my assets at risk.
Thank you -- Been investing since 1980....And retired 11 years ago,been living off different investment strategies over the years. One thing that has been consistent is you have to go against the grain to make serious money... If you go with consensus you be mediocre at the very best.
Here's my income strategy...I keep over 60% my assets in cash, 15% LNCO, and rest in Mix of Closed End Utility,Preferreds, BDCs, and Munis.. With this strategy even if LNCO cuts the divi in half(9.5% yield).. I still have a nice overall yield with a good cushion of safety... Because all assets are vulnerable to price swings..except cash. the way I figure is to go for this yield for now....expecting a cut .... But every month of no cut is gravy... and possbile price appreciation. LNCOs low price allows me to protect more of my asset base because its extraordinary high yield instead of having more at risk for equivalent yields.
WTI increased as much as 2 percent and Brent 1.3 percent. Stockpiles fell 3.69 million barrels to 379.3 million in the week ended Nov. 28, the Energy Information Administration said.