17 weeks left in the injection season
* 65 bcf per week = 1105 + 2129 already in storage = 3234 bcf
* 75 bcf per week = 1275 + 2129 already in storage = 3404 bcf
* 85 bcf per week = 1445 + 2129 already in storage = 3574 bcf
* 95 bcf per week = 1615 + 2129 already in storage = 3744 bcf
2013 winter we used 3012 bcf
2012 winter we used 2256 bcf
2011 winter we used 1483 bcf
2010 winter we used 2261 bcf
2009 winter we used 2222 bcf
2008 winter we used 1837 bcf
2007 winter we used 2311 bcf
2006 winter we used 1915 bcf
hi billy, like you, I never rule anything out with NG and that is why I only trade it, mostly on the short side but sometimes on the long side too. if it was gold, I would buy and hold (not at this level though), but NG is a gas with over 100 years of proven reserves that could easily be replaced by other sources of energy like coal and nuclear. buy and hold? not for me...
and based on what happened in Europe for the past two years, most likely this Winter will be mild
with 100+ years of proven NG reserves in US and Canada, you are better off being on the sideline than being long. NG could see $2.999 this year and that would not surprise me at all.
hi billy, last year NG bottomed August 9th, and two years ago on August 29th. I'm totally speculating here, but I think NG still has at least another 10% to go to the downside. imo, UNG at $19 is not out of the question.
last week i thought that NG will bounce to $4.5. boy was I wrong. no bounce at all.
right now i'm totally clueless of what will happen tomorrow. probably another large injection followed by another drop in price? who know? personally, i'm no longer feeling it, so i've been out and will stay out.
good luck to you all, longs and shorts. hope you all make money.
give me a commodity with 100+ years of proven reserves, a way of extracting 3X profits from so called "investors" and I'll give you a trading range.
this is nothing but a legalized Ponzi scheme meant to drain your 401k at a faster pace.
the system is nothing but a Ponzi scheme and a house of cards. put your money in a 401k to buy shares from the so called executives that manufacture them in the toilet. what a joke!
we are now testing the bottom of the range, and i'm convinced that with 20 weeks left in the injection season, the range will hold.
NG is meant to be traded. they will always find a reason to pump it up and then dump it. don't get too greedy. if you've been short lately, congrats! you've made lots of money and imo you should protect it...now!
play their game
all that i'm saying is that, for now, NG is in a trading range of $4.3 to $4.7 (+/-.1) and if you are short, you should cover and come back at $4.7. read my posts, i always recommend shorting NG and I always tell people to trade it and never invest in it.
at this level, I cannot recommend that you short ng, but i can recommend cashing in the huge profit and waiting for the CME traders to pump it back up...
and i'm sorry to say this, but some of you don't deserve to make money. i've been shorting NG for a long time and the reason i'm still around is because i'm not a hog. the past few weeks have been amazing, but did you really think that the party will continue indefinitely?
at $4.7 i will be back to ask the longs to sell and i'm sure most of them will not listen to me either
we are still in the trading range of $4.3 to $4.7 (+/-.15). shorts have had a great run lately....cash in. there will be better short opportunities in the future.
and then they will wait to see what will happen Thursday.
that would be my guess but, of course, i could be totally wrong.
one thing i've learned over my trading career is that things always get worse before they get better. so if you get the urge to buy right now, i would recommend that you do not.
the injections are running 30% ahead of last year. that means we will end the injection season with at least 3400 bcf in storage. usually after a cold winter you get a mild one, which means next year we could have over 4000bcf in storage. i'm sure they will slow down the injections, but you should get my point. there will never be a shortage of NG in our lifetime.
they made a lot of money last year and they are making even more money this year. I hope the Canadians make the most out of this situation.
if I were you, I would wait until Thursday to make a decision. This has been the worst winter in DECADES and the price is up just a little over 10% from last year's average of $3.7. And that is because there is A LOT of NG out there. over 100 years of proven reserves in both US and Canada to be exact.
NG at $3.700 and below is not out of the question. the CME traders will push it down to the extreme just like they pushed it up in the winter. if they smell blood they will go after the kill.
never "invest" in NG and never buy on margin.
if you love losing money, buy UNG tomorrow morning, and if you really love to lose money, buy its cousin UGAZ.
this is just the beginning, when the CME traders smell blood they are all over you.
oh yeah, that would be me.
my current advice to you is to stay on the side line until Thursday. imo, another injection of 100+ would send UGAZ below $16 and possibly $14.
don't be brave. the CME traders will eat you alive. and whatever you do, DO NOT BUY ON MARGIN!
nine consecutive 100+ injections? very possible. hopefully, the Canadians are making a killing right here right now at $4.3. if this winter will be mild like most expect, the price could collapse below $3. the cat is out of the bag, open the spigots and there is so much NG that you don't know what to do with it.
i think we could see NG near or below $4 this month. i should have stayed short, but you can't win them all...this thing is meant for trading not investing. if you are long NG you will be in for a rude awakening. the only people making money no matter what NG does are the ETF managers and the so called executives at NG companies that steal from the shareholders.