i don't really trust these clown either but at least they are seeing the production dropping...
don't believe me. to find their website search: "Texas Monthly Oil & Gas Production" and do your own calculation
Either EIA is totally wrong or Pennsylvania, Texas or Louisiana are totally wrong. Which is it?
fyi: EIA just admitted to a 1.5bcf/d mistake.
that is when I realized EIA has no idea what they are talking about.
Declining production is adding to that nervousness, other brokers and analysts have said this week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a monthly report released Friday that production fell in March for the second time this year, and it also cut the production numbers it had already reported for earlier this year.
Some traders are now questioning the accuracy of the data they are getting and their understanding of the market's supply-and-demand balance, said Frank Clements, co-owner of Meridian Energy Brokers Inc. outside New York.
search "Marcellus is close to Peak Production" and read the entire article:
The Monster Marcellus –And EIA Extrapolations
The Marcellus, which has added roughly 3 bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) of net production in each of the last four years and recently established a new all-time high level of ~12.5 bcf/d, has nearly single-handedly offset production declines in other shale plays and conventional production over this time period.
Some analysts as well as the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) have reported that Marcellus production is already 18 to 19 bcf/d. But recent data from the State of Pennsylvania resoundingly contradicts claims of such lofty production levels. Pennsylvania, according to the state’s Department of Natural Resources, produced an average of less than 12 bcf/d during the second half of 2014.
Why the discrepancy?
It likely has to do with analyst models being unable to detect rapid changes in drilling activity and well productivity. The EIA has cited rapid changes in the drilling activity for inaccuracies in its monthly 914 natural gas production reports.
(It should be noted that the Pennsylvania Marcellus accounts for nearly 95 percent of production from the play while West Virginia supplies the remainder.)
last quarter, Exxon, the number 1 NG producer, has cut production by 200Mcf/d...and they actually cut production for few quarters in a row now. This is public information. Check it out for yourself.
How about CHK's or CHV's production? Flat and capex cut by more than 40%
EIA claims production in Marcellus in 18 or 19 bcf/d. Impossible. Go look at the state of Pennsylvania's Department of Natural Resources (DNR) website: 12 bcf/d. Public information. Also check the Texas and Louisiana websites, nothing near what EIA claims.
But EIA's magical spreadsheet keeps telling us production is growing at a huge pace. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE.
Wells lose 50% of their output after their first year. That is a FACT. No efficiency will make up for that. You must drill, drill and drill some more to keep up the pace. But the rig count is down to levels not seen since 1986. Is there an unlimited inventory?
The oil rigs have been cut by more then 50%, so all that associated gas gone too. Production affected? Heck no.
EIA just reported that they've made a 1.5Bcf/d mistake.
nothing, absolutely nothing, changes EIA's ESTIMATES. This is a total joke...
they've daily underreported 1.5Bcf for 90 days. really? like I said, production could be zero and they would not know for two years!
Correction to Natural Gas Production Data for Jan-Mar 2015
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has identified an error in the Natural Gas Monthly (NGM) data published on May 29. The error caused marketed and dry natural gas production for the first three months of 2015 to be underreported by about 1.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). An adjustment for carbon dioxide produced in the "Other States" category did not properly account for required changes in the gross-to-marketed calculation used in preparation of data from EIA's Form 914 monthly natural gas production survey. Dry gas production for the first quarter of 2015 is now estimated to be approximately 73.5 Bcf/d.
at least EIA has a disclaimer telling you that these numbers are extrapolations. but not sure what excuse the Wall Street Criminals are using?
the NG Ponzi scheme is about to unravel
and we are talking BCF!
learn about how EIA comes out with their estimates before you do anything
I think the buffoons at EIA will continue to try to pump up the prices to prevent the NG Ponzi scheme from unraveling
that is a discrepancy of 2555bcf a year! Someone needs to stop plugging in numbers into a Microsoft Excel database and go out and measure something instead!
hi billy, they claim we have over 120 years of NG underground. The question is what does it cost to get it out? Talisman Energy (top 10 producer in Marcellus) lost over $2 billion in 6 months, CHK, BKH, and many other also lost money. And on top of that the top 5 NG producers are over $50 billion in debt. The NG industry is nothing but a Ponzi scheme and I think we will have a major crisis within 12 months...
this is just one example that you can easily check for yourself.
EIA in their latest 914 Monthly Natural Gas Gross Production Report claims that production in Texas for the month of February increased by 2%.
but, the Texas RRC website shows a decline of ~15% (656,636,597mcf in January vs 563,837,998mcf in February).