at least EIA has a disclaimer telling you that these numbers are extrapolations. but not sure what excuse the Wall Street Criminals are using?
the NG Ponzi scheme is about to unravel
and we are talking BCF!
learn about how EIA comes out with their estimates before you do anything
I think the buffoons at EIA will continue to try to pump up the prices to prevent the NG Ponzi scheme from unraveling
that is a discrepancy of 2555bcf a year! Someone needs to stop plugging in numbers into a Microsoft Excel database and go out and measure something instead!
hi billy, they claim we have over 120 years of NG underground. The question is what does it cost to get it out? Talisman Energy (top 10 producer in Marcellus) lost over $2 billion in 6 months, CHK, BKH, and many other also lost money. And on top of that the top 5 NG producers are over $50 billion in debt. The NG industry is nothing but a Ponzi scheme and I think we will have a major crisis within 12 months...
this is just one example that you can easily check for yourself.
EIA in their latest 914 Monthly Natural Gas Gross Production Report claims that production in Texas for the month of February increased by 2%.
but, the Texas RRC website shows a decline of ~15% (656,636,597mcf in January vs 563,837,998mcf in February).
this is public information and they operate in Marcellus
The company recorded a net loss of $439 million for the quarter, compared to a net loss of $1.59 billion last quarter due to Q4 impairment charges of $1.6 billion as a result of deterioration in forward commodity prices.
search "The Marcellus is close to Peak Production" and read the article
Current prices in the Marcellus are incredibly uneconomic. With the price gas for delivery on March 30th at $1.69 per mcf, production in the Marcellus at today’s prices equates to epic capital destruction. With half-cycle costs in the Marcellus for Talisman Energy, a top ten producer with operations in one of the most prolific parts of the play, at $3.25 per mcf and full-cycle likely over $4.00 per mcf, the company is losing approximately $2.00 for every thousand cubic of gas it producers.
search "The Marcellus is close to Peak Production " and read the article
The Monster Marcellus –And EIA Extrapolations
The Marcellus, which has added roughly 3 bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) of net production in each of the last four years and recently established a new all-time high level of ~12.5 bcf/d, has nearly single-handedly offset production declines in other shale plays and conventional production over this time period.
Some analysts as well as the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) have reported that Marcellus production is already 18 to 19 bcf/d. But recent data from the State of Pennsylvania resoundingly contradicts claims of such lofty production levels. Pennsylvania, according to the state’s Department of Natural Resources, produced an average of less than 12 bcf/d during the second half of 2014.
search "The Marcellus is close to Peak Production " and read the entire article.
What most investors forget is that the EIA monthly production model uses data that is 2 years old and even publishes the caveat along with its monthly report that modeling errors occur at time of rapid changes in drilling activity.
The EIA even cites the ramp up in production in the Haynesville as an example of where its model was unable to produce accurate estimates due to its inability to incorporate recent production data.
Problems with the EIA’s production estimates have been around for more than a decade though they are not widely recognized.
they've seen the drop in the Rig count and they know what is going to happen few months from now. Unfortunately, what they don't realize, at $3, there is no new money to bail out the NG Ponzi scheme. The top 5 NG producers are over $50+ BILLION in debt...and, remember, prices got as high as $14 just few years ago. Who would add more money into this Ponzi scheme at $3? You must be crazy to do so....
i think the "experts" think the drop in production is due to maintenance, but we shall see about that....
US production fell 2.0 Bcf/d today to reach 70.4 Bcf/d, its lowest level since January, following declines in multiple regions. Production in the Northeast fell from 19.6 Bcf/d to 19.0 Bcf/d with large drops in in Ohio and West Virginia. Receipts from the Natrium Plant in West Virginia onto Dominion fell to zero after averaging 300 MMcf/d over the past six days. Production in the San Juan fell about 520 MMcf/d caused by a drop in receipts on El Paso and Transwestern pipelines. Permian production declined by over 250 MMcf/d with the drop again focused on El Paso. Production in the Rockies also fell by 0.2 Bcf/d focused mainly in the Piceance. Total demand on Tuesday was revised upward from 60.2 Bcf/d to 61 Bcf/d and increased further to 62.0 Bcf/d today. Power burn demand is expected to increase by from 23.5 Bcf/d to 24.6 Bcf/d today, with 0.8 Bcf/d of this gain occurring in Texas.
make sure you save enough money for the winter heating bill. these incompetent fools took a good thing and destroyed it. thousands of jobs were lost for no reason whatsoever. T. Boone said $6 because he knows how the Wall Street Criminals will react once production drops below 70bcf/d....just a matter of time.
looks like the Ponzi scheme needs a lot more than $3 to keep it going. but don't worry, once production drops below 70bcf/d and prices jump to $4 the cycle will begin anew. just a matter of time....
because he knows the NG industry is a Ponzi scheme with the top 5 producers over $50 BILLION in debt. It will take the promise of doubling your money for anyone to "invest" in this Ponzi scheme.