what is the chance the Wall Street Criminals will hit me with a 4x2? probably 1%
I have been bearish on metals for years, but I'm now thinking of taking a long position.
Everything seems so rosy nowadays in US. Stock market thru the roof, housing sector unstoppable, cars flying off the dealer lots, etc, etc, but the rest of the world didn't seem to get that memo...
Haven't we learned anything from the past 14 years?
and that takes us into September. The summer is over! Expect 100+ injections in September and October.
let them pump it up a little more and then time to short again
11 weeks (maybe 12?) left in the injection season, and 2555 in storage. let's look at three scenarios: 75,85,and 95 bcf average injections for the remaining season.
75 * 11 = 825+ 2555= 3380
85 * 11 = 935+ 2555= 3490
95 * 11 = 1045+2555= 3600
in 2013 we used 3012
in 2012 we used 2256
in 2011 we used 1483
in 2010 we used 2261
in 2009 we used 2222 bcf
unless you KNOW this winter will be as bad as the one we just had, I suggest you don't bet the farm on the long side. Remember, last year NG traded as low as $2.999 and in 2012 as low as $1.999.
NG is meant for trading NOT investing. It is a form of legalized gambling and the CME sharks take full advantage of that. NEVER, and I mean, NEVER buy or short on margin and only play with as much money as you can afford to lose.
why are you attacking the messenger? +88 injection in the middle of the summer and you want me to tell you to buy NG? come on dude, get real, if you are losing money, is definitely not because of me.
just for YOU! enjoy
i think we will be trading above $12 very soon, and if they increase the book value one more time, the gap between book value and current price will shrink considerably.
if we see another injection of 90+ next week, NG will trade at $3
we will end the injection season around 3500bcf which is more than enough for any winter.
trade NG. never "invest" in it
if you are long, cash in some of the huge gains you've had. no reason to be too greedy. you've had an amazing run, take advantage of it
and always remember that Canada has enough NG to supply us for 100+ years and, unlike the Enron criminals, they don't want "Grandma Millie" to suffer.
I believe if we see another 100+ injection this week, NG will drop 10% from here
as a bull, i would be very careful right now. the easy money has been made. whatever you do, do not buy on margin
EIGHT consecutive 100+ injections is possible.
i think if we see that next week that will turn the tide and it will change the trading range from $4.3-$4.7, to $4.00-$4.3 for the rest of the summer.
If you do the math using averages from previous years, by the end of the injection season, we will end up with, at least, 3200bcf. If they keep pumping as they did for the past 10 weeks, the end result will be around 3600bcf.
last year the average price was $3.7. i think this year the average price will be around $4.3.
I strongly believe that we are now heading towards $4.000
Never "invest" in NG, never buy on margin, and never believe what the friends at Goldman have to say