if you've been here for more than a year and don't realize that the trend has changed, you should not be here at all.
sorry, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to realize NG will move significantly higher from here
I'm a trader, but, for now, I'm going to stay with the "buy and hold" approach I called for not so long ago.
hi Billy, last year the price got as high as $6.50. at $3, Exxon cut production by 200bcf/d and idled rigs. At the current rig count, production will fall off a cliff in few months. The industry is BILLIONS of dollars in debt. What bank will provide financing at $3? In 2008, the price got as high as $14 and the banks were willing to take a risk, but at $3? It will never happen. EIA knows that and is now trying to overcompensate for months of releasing fake numbers. Like T Boon said, we will see NG at $6 again soon....
Marcellus - Super Rich = $2.10
Utica - Wet Gas = $2.29
Eagle Ford - Liquids Rich = $2.39
Marcellus SW - Liquids Rich = $2.47
Marcellus NE- Core = $2.63
and the next one after that is Barnett - Core at $3.31!
the idea that just 5 locations could dictate the price for the entire nation is absurd to anyone but EIA
buy and hold
finally, a major producer like Exxon reported production being down and EIA can no longer lie.
unfortunately, thousands of people lost their jobs and in about three months we will see the negative side effects of EIA's actions
there are consequences for Exxon reporting false numbers, but EIA can report whatever they want. no consequences at all. -22 drawdown during the super cold Thanksgiving week when everyone stayed home?...sure no problem.
the ONLY reason they got away with it is because the Wall Street Criminals have been making money....
take a look at the news release from this morning.
not really sure what exactly EIA is estimating....but eventually the facts will be hard to ignore.
hmm, and the NG experts were claiming companies make money at $2.5...
case in point: Baker Hughes: lost $589 million in 3 months and laid-off 17% of its workforce
Baker even stopped providing the well count because advances in efficiencies in spreadsheets
by the end of this year, Natural Gas is expected to come out of the ground by itself and travel to the nearest utility pipeline on its own. And by the end of 2016, EIA expects the natural gas to be able to travel straight to your furnace. The entire process should be 100% efficient in 2017
Baker also posted a $589 million loss.
EIA must be right, companies are much more efficient these days...he,he,he....what a joke!
- the 2012 season ended at 2369bcf vs 1461bcf in 2015
- during the 2011/2012 winter the price declined 48% vs 45% this winter
- the price low was reached on April 20, 2012 at $1.82 vs $2.48 this year
- by May 17, 2012 the price rallied 43% ($2.60)
- by October 31, 2012, the price rallied 92% ($3.50)
- the rig count in 2012 was between 600 and 800 vs just ~220 now
- the 2012 injection season ended at 3929 bcf