Plant owners and operators report to EIA that they expect to retire almost 27 gigawatts (GW) of capacity from 175 coal-fired generators between 2012 and 2016. In 2011, there were 1,387 coal-fired generators in the United States, totaling almost 318 GW. The 27 GW of retiring capacity amounts to 8.5% of total 2011 coal-fired capacity.
The coal-fired capacity expected to be retired over the next five years is more than four times greater than retirements performed during the preceding five-year period (6.5 GW). Moreover, based on EIA data, the approximate 9 GW of coal-fired capacity retirements expected to occur in 2012 will likely be the largest one-year amount in the nation's history. The record is, however, expected to be short-lived as almost 10 GW of coal-fired capacity are expected to retire in 2015.
hi billy, give us the results. my understanding is that in April 2015 sixteen coal plants will go offline because of the new regulation
in nat gas there is no Saudi Arabia with a $10 breakeven price that can export to us. Most US and all Canadian companies are losing money at this level. Currently you are seeing the paper money killing a commodity in the short term and the US consumer in the long term. This is an anomaly and hopefully will be short lived before any permanent damage is being done.
below 30 during the day and below 16 at night every day between January 4 and January 11. if the forecast is correct, we will probably see a major bounce from here
not sure for how long the party is going to last but currently the music is still playing. the hangover will be major, but how many times has that prevented you from partying?
here are the Marcellus breakeven prices. and again, Marcellus only accounts for less than 20% of US productions. The other regions have much higher breakeven prices.
only few companies in the Marcellus region which accounts for less than 20% of US production might be able to survive at this level.
if this is what EIA thinks is good for US by putting out a -22 estimate during a very cold Thanksgiving week then so be it. When the other extreme will take place the consumer will simply have to pay.
for now, shorts are in full control
down from $4.532 on November 21st when EIA reported the -22 drawdown during a very cold Thanksgiving week.
hopefully the bureaucrats at EIA know what they are doing :-)
hi billy, the winter just started. Things don't look very promising right now, but that could change overnight. We've seen that happen over and over again.
So far, the first week of January looks to be very cold. If that extends for more than a week and if producers that are losing money at this level stop producing, things will look a lot different by the end of January.
in 2015, the LNG terminals will come online and the new regulation will force over 16 coal plants to shut down or convert to NG by April. In Europe NG sells for over $9 and in Asia higher than that. Why would any company lose money selling NG to US instead of exporting it? Makes no sense.
The injections this year have been large for two reasons: a cool summer, and high NG prices. Anyone that thinks the injections will continue to be high with NG at $3.1 is naive.
The trend is about to change...
well boyz, looks like the Cold is going to get here in 4 days. Should be a wild January.
it wasn't that long ago:-) from $3.5 to $4.5 in few days. This time around there are a lot more shorts and the move could be even more dramatic.
remember last winter? from $3 to $6.5!
yes, things could change very fast and the Winter just started
add them up, do the average, and you get 32.5. The average for this time of the year is 34.5
from $4.5 to $3.2 seems a little excessive to me...