like i said over and over, the NG industry is a PONZI scheme. If you are 85% hedged at $3.70 and you lose money, you got a problem. Next year, Range's hedge drops below 50% at $3.42.
the end is near...time to go long
june: 363 mcf/d
may: 428 mcf/d
april: 415 mcf/d
these are HUGE differences. Add them all up and you get 36.1 BCF! Just for three months, and just for ONE state! why isn't anyone saying anything???
this is absolutely incredible. EIA's extrapolation for Texas for the month of June is 671,504,000 mcf while the Texas website has 615,762,474 mcf. Or, in other words, the two are off by 1.7 bcf/d!!!
all in bcf/d
June 2015 = 11.98
May 2015 = 12.04
April 2015 = 12.51
March 2015 = 12.75
Feb 2015 = 12.66
Jan 2015 = 12.58
Jul-Dec 2014 = 11.57
Jan-Feb 2014 = 10.72
I thought the report was going to be tomorrow, but they've reported today...and what do you know?! first drop below 12 bcf/d in months....WHERE IS THE GROWTH EIA HAS BEEN EXTRAPOLATING????????????????
too funny. waiting on the NG extrapolation to show a 1% drop too
in order for that to happen, NG will have to trade above $3.40 for the remaining of the year....
I think that is the question, and personally, I would say ABSOLUTELY NOT.
the inventory is getting depleted, the well output drops 40% after the first year, and the hedges are about to expire. Range Resource, the best when it comes to hedging, will be less than 50% hedged in 2016.
If you think they can keep up the current pace at this level, you should short some more...last year at $6 NG was definitely a short, but now at $2.6 I don't think so.
rather comical how the sharks are trying to make the longs sell.
the supergiant field just discovered will power US for the next 500 years
CHK lost over $5 BILLION in the last six months. remains to be seen for how much longer they will be able to keep up that pace .
last year, the top 5 NG producers were over $50 BILLION in debt. a lot more nowadays...
this is nothing but a Ponzi scheme and we all know what happens to the Ponzi schemes...just give it time
the estimates are for 3bcf/d and that is not enough to cover Egypt's deficit. Instead of importing coal as they were planning to they will now, hopefully, use the NG
NG reserves still down below the 5 year average in the East and a heat wave is comming.
how much inventory is left and when will the dramatic drop in the rig count will have an effect on production?
time will tell.
Following a relatively quiet spring maintenance and refueling season which saw near record levels of nuclear generation, the Fall maintenance season may prove to be much busier with significant amounts of nuclear generation going off-line for extended periods of time. Based on historic maintenance schedules, the Northeast region may be one of the hardest hit in the country. As many as thirteen nuclear plants are expected to shutdown for refueling and other planned maintenance starting as early as mid-September with the season lasting until mid-December. On a monthly level, four plants totaling 4.3 GW are expected to go off-line before the end of the month with an average daily outage level of 3.2 GW/d which represents up to 570 MMcf/d of gas burn replacement. October will most likely be the peak outage month with up to eleven plants being off-line for portions of the month. Total outages may peak near 7.7 GW at the beginning of the month, averaging 6.3 GW/d, or 1.1 Bcf/d of gas burn replacement, over the remainder of the month. Maintenance will begin to roll-off in November as outages are expected to average 5.0 GW/d, requiring up to 901 MMcf/d in gas burn replacement. As scheduled maintenance winds down by the middle of December, outages for the first half of the month are expected to average 1.9 GW/d with up to 346 MMcf/d of gas burn replacement.
EIA is content with NG between $2.7 and $2.9, but what they don't realize is that companies like CHK are bleeding at these levels
CHK lost another $4 billion last quarter, and it looks like this quarter will be even worse...maybe we need NG under $2 for these fools to wake up...