There are many errors in your post. The largest concerns his bag holding followers. They made a boatload of money shorting from $100 and covering in the low teens. How is this bad?
After Monday you will only have $125k left.
You made two mistakes: First, it is totally OK to short a stock. Making money from the travails of others is OK as far as the bible is concerned. Have you ever seen videos of predators chasing down prey and eating it alive? This cruel act is bible-sanctioned or otherwise it would not exist. Therefore shorting is OK.
How do you know that solar energy is not bible-friendly? You assume it saves the earth from carbon emissions and therefore it's OK. Maybe the Lord thinks the technology is bad for the earth. In what way, I don't know.
Using the bible as a moral compass is OK. In investing, the best methods follow the Gorden Gekko' saying: "Greed is good."
Retail longs are getting a big hint that their investment in SUNE will soon be worthless. Institutional holders also get the hint and will act by selling the shares and moving on. Retail types view the loss as personal. They go through a huge process all to avoid being told their stock is worthless. You can see some of this behavior on this Board.
But some retail go way too far. They hang on for years and years after the stock is cancelled. The exchanges will allow trading of the stock symbol of years and years. Blockbuster who went BK in 2010 had its shares cancelled. But these cancelled shares still trade as BLIAQ. It even has a YMB associated with the dead stock. Yep, they still trade this very dead stock just to amuse themselves.
Goodwill is a meaningless number. It is an accounting entry only and has no bearing on the value of the company. Example: If VRX buys Bausch and Lomb for $8.7 bill, the assets are shifted over to VRX. The entries will be $3.4 bil for the book value of B&L assets and $4.3 bill for goodwill.
All successful companies are valued much higher than book value. When they are sold, that is when goodwill is created. It is totally meaningless. Equally meaningless are statements saying a company is worth at least book value. Wrong! The market determines the value of a company and it can be higher or lower than book value.
Before the Q1 ER, VRX was $68 ps. The drop after the ER was due mostly to the delayed 10-K. But now the 10-K is done, we have a new CEO, why are we not back to $68?
When SUNE was rocketing to the moon, it was the longs that benefited the most. The stock was over $85 at one point in time. But the situation has been reversed. SUNE has financial troubles which they cannot dig themselves out of. No worries. They need money to keep operating. And they need to restructure so they regain their growing ways. This will happen in due time. But as part of the process, the common stock will be cancelled as part of the process. Longs may ask, why me? The same forces that allow you to see your stock rise above $85 will also wipe you out if needed to assure the future of the company. It's a two edge sword.
Although it does not feel good and it sucks monetarily, longs can walk away with knowing they were part of an important process. It's a learning event for the next time, pulling out a bit early is not so bad. Put crudely, longs are stuck holding the bag.
All SRPT longs should review what happened to CLVS last week at their AdCom. The goal was accelerated approval of Rociletinib, a lung cancer drug. The FDA BD were much against approval due to the poor safety profile of roci. The docs on the committee were even worse than the FDA. Before lunch, they voted the drug down and left town.
It seems to me that SRPT's largest weapon is the public testimony. But the docs and the FDA work on data not on emotional cries for help.
Technically, SUNE cannot pay its creditors so it is bankrupt. Chapter 11 is a set of laws and protocols that prevent creditors from disassembling SUNE to extract cash. This "protection" allows SUNE to reorganize and emerge as a going concern.
The $300 mil is DIP money which allows SUNE to operate. The restructuring has not happened yet.
Now do you understand that SUNE is bankrupt?
Moody downgrade? Na, they will let VRX some time.
Ackman selling? Too stubborn, never going to happen.
The worst thing that can happens is if VRX auditors resign. The resignation may be for professional differences. But it means for sure that the books are al dente.
There is nobody owning this stock that is not underwater. I am in with a large group at $180+. Some I hear are close to $250. Technically, we are bag holders. The drop has been steep. Can we then be called sumo class bag holders?
Some, but not me were lured in by Ackman. Would these losers be called Big Billy bag holders?
Just a bunch of musings concerning our situation.
I am personally couching Uncle Carl in how to best ream Bill. But being an older guy, Carl cannot deliver the punch as he once did. I am going to have to arrange for a stand-in. Billy boy will get the reaming he deserves.
The next five hours is scary time for VRX investors. The Three Stooges can make any type of announcement that will move the stock tomorrow. They want to catch the opening of the asian markets.
As a reminder; you have been signed up for remedial stupidity training. It starts 9:00 am on Monday. They will do a cheek swab and test your DNA for genetic predisposition to low IQ. The class is large and you have been placed in the 20% bracket. You need to aspire to be merely stupid. Hope the training helps.
VRX's problems go beyond these two products. They can no longer acquire companies and must transition to a R&D model. Marauding Viking no more; Going forward, VRX will be a farmer. Free cash flow growth will slow dramatically. Pearson must allocate FCF between debt retirement and R&D. It will be years before VRX develops any new products on their own. They may need a secondary offering to whittle down the debt.
VRX put in a very stout bottom at $60 and was tested on Friday. This should hold. Absent any news, this stock should move up to $64-68, a range which it is comfortable in. I think the sell of on Friday pm was a fear of holding over the weekend. The Three Stooges are in charge of VRX IR; expect nothing otherwise.
If the market tanks all bets are off.
ackman needs to get $5 bill together and offer it to Fatman as convertible debt. VRX lowers debt, reduces service cost and Ackman will save the company.
The waiver from the creditors will come in due time. They want their pound of flesh first. But they have no reasonable reason to deny the request.
Nothing is published publicly. Most investors and analysts take heed of the AdCom votes.
Nothing in the am session will kill Roci. All good. We rocket up AH.
It will open after the AdCom. Typically in AH. This stock will zoom northwards given the positive am Adcom session. We open above $20.