Longctso, as a long time poster here, is a credible source. I think / hope he's telling us the truth. Anyway we'll know it very soon so there's no need to get angry Gino...be cool! ;)
Apparently there need something else to kickstart sales. The distributorship agreement is just the foundation for that. It takes time.
Well, the only real sadness here is the "abandoned" stock price cause the perma-dilution to keep the financial of the company alive. Once we get to be cash-flow positive with some very good news to support an uplist to a national market, that is going to change.
Davvero non penso proprio che lascino passare l'anno dopo la promessa fatta. Non sono stati affatto vaghi. I risultati, almeno parziali (quindi cio' non toglie che potrebbero rilasciare i risultati finali), saranno pubblicati entro la fine del mese.
During the conference call (a few weeks ago) they didnt say that they HOPE to release the dosing results within the end of the year. They said they PLAN to do that within year end.
Dr Chan is not used to over promise and under deliver...maybe the other way around is true.
Moreover we are flying under the radar since we are not curing cancer but sepsi. So you add ignorance (non us sales) to ignorance (sepsi what?)...
Sale has been very low and most of all were non-us sales. We need to turn the corner as far as revenue growth is concerned.
And maybe a partner for Hemodefend? Sure the (at least) interim dosing results are planned within the end of 2013.
If we consider 35M usd 2014-revenue, or average 1% of the actual TAM, with a gross profit of 50% (average) we got a gross profit of 17.5M usd, about the same number we get from peru's numbers.
So what would CTSO worth being profitable with 30-40M usd revenue and a gross profit around 50%? Of course it depends on the growth and the projected growth. Any opinion?
For example a company like VPCO (e-cigarettes) with 20M usd revenue and a growth of 20%, the market cap is 100M usd, that is 5 times revenue. With that valuation CTSO would worth 0.3-0.4$/share fully diluted.
The "problem" is that our growth would not be just 20% but 1000-1500% so our projected growth would reasonably be much higher.
If total expense are 12Musd with 20Musd of gross profit we should be already profitable next year...as far as the stock price is concerned it means $$$$$
If we assume 3% of TAM reached in Germany, Austria and Switzerland at the end of next year, we got around a gross profit of 11M usd without considering India and Russia.
We know that India already started growin our revenue from the current quarter. Russia should start early next year. How much gross profit should we consider there? They are both very big country so even with a lower selling price and gross margin, should it be reasonable to add around 7-9M usd?
Again being conservative let's suppose 1% of the TAM reached at the end of next year. So we got a gross profit of 2.475.000$ + 3.113.333$ = 5.588.333$ with UK, Ireland, Netherland and Turkey.
peru, if you consider a gross margin of 33% you get 3.113.333$ for 1% of market penetration and so on...how could you get values so low?
Ok so being conservative let's assume we derive an average 1% of the TAM in UK, Ireland and Netherland.
I considered the forward PE that is the 2015-PE 1 year from now (end of 2014). If you slap a PE of 20 then the forward PE could very well be 50-100.
Given that how much would you subtract from the gross profit to get to the net profit? Share, share... ;)
Hey z3, could you please detail your calculation like I did? I'd like to get to the best estimate I can and to keep it updated. Thank you.
Thank you for correcting me. Anyway a forward PE of 10 would really be too low if we can show this kind of growth. I would expect a forward PE north of 40-50.
...is there somebody who would like to crunch some numbers?
Let's assume we got a working product and let's guess-timate some future market penetration.
Holland, Germany, Austra, Switzerland, Turkey, Russia and India.
How many sepsi cases are we targeting in total? Let's say 1M each year.
Let's assume we grab 1% of that market next couple of years. Since every patient need at least 7 filters (3500USD) we are talking about 350M usd revenue.
Let's assume a 50% net margin (lower than last Q's 71% cause of the distributorship agreements).
We would reach 175M usd profit. With 550M outstanding shares we are talking about a 2015 net profit of 0,32usd/shares.
So a forward PE of 10 would give us a 1yr target of 3,2usd.
Comments? Please share your opinions. Thank you!!!