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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

vjkstocks 153 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2014 2:31 PM Member since: Nov 25, 2010
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  • Reply to

    The story

    by vanmusicblues Jul 10, 2014 8:32 PM
    vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 11, 2014 2:31 PM Flag

    Van, how come you exceeded one line to make your agenda .Is everything ok?

  • Reply to

    Belviq Patent Expiration

    by vjkstocks Jul 10, 2014 8:40 PM
    vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 11, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    sharon, thanks for the info.

    craig audet too alluded to the fact that they are trying for patent extension till 2026.If it goes thru that will be great but nothing is known as yet. That is why I would like to keep my expectations tempered to the current expiration date of 2023. Will be very excited if it extends to 2026.

    also following is another reason for me to be cautious.

    fda declined to extend the exclusivity clearly

    Eisai's Writ followed from Eisai's Citizen Petition (FDA Docket No. FDA-2013-P-0884) filed last week requesting that FDA determine that NCE exclusivity start on the date that DEA's scheduling became effective for BELVIQ® (lorcaserin hydrochloride) (i.e., June 7, 2013)

    FDA, in its Consolidated Response stated that “The legal and regulatory framework on exclusivity and drug approvals contemplate only a single date of approval for determining when exclusivity begins for an NDA. For each NDA at issue, that date is the date that FDA completes its review and issues an approval letter.”

    Regarding 2029, anyone reading the different messages will get a feeling that Belviq's patent is extended to 2029 which is not the case.

  • vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 11, 2014 9:22 AM Flag

    these guys spread fear with all their best means, clowns.
    without any reason or no bad news of any sort, why should a stock go down 5%.I agree with you that retail is a sucker.There are many who will get spooked and sell, will not be surprised.

  • Reply to

    Belviq Patent Expiration

    by vjkstocks Jul 10, 2014 8:40 PM
    vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 11, 2014 7:19 AM Flag

    I hear "no generic for arna till 2029" I believe it is "no generic for arna till 2023" unless fda extends
    the request by Eisai for a few years extension which it had shot down once.

    Patent Protection 2029 Scenario:
    Crystalline forms
    Patent 8,168,624
    Issued: May 1, 2012
    Inventor(s): Agarwal; Rajesh K. & Betts, III; William L. & Henshilwood; James A. & Kiang; Yuan-Hon & Post; Noah
    Assignee(s): Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
    The present invention is directed to crystalline forms , compositions containing the same, preparations, and uses thereof.
    Patent expiration dates:
    April 18, 2029

    probably arna maybe working on a different once a day form for which the new patent mybeapplicable, again only the ir/craig audet can clear this.rest is allspeculation.

    this is a great find but i think generics will start competing from 2023 for the fda approved lorc imho

  • Exclusivity is exclusive marketing rights granted by the FDA upon approval of a drug and can run concurrently with a patent or not.
    Exclusivity is a statutory provision and is granted to an NDA applicant if statutory requirements are met.
    Exclusivity expiration dates:
    June 27, 2017 -
    Eisai had requested a year more due to DEA delays

    Patent Protection for Belviq as it stands today
    most of the Belviq constituents carry a patent protection till April 10, 2023
    Eisai had requested a year more due to DEA delays, but FDA shot it down
    --Generics cannot compete before 2023,Since Belviq has strong patent protection till then
    (Patent Protection is independnt of Exclusivity )

    Patent Protection 2029 Scenario:
    Crystalline forms
    Patent 8,168,624
    Issued: May 1, 2012
    Inventor(s): Agarwal; Rajesh K. & Betts, III; William L. & Henshilwood; James A. & Kiang; Yuan-Hon & Post; Noah
    Assignee(s): Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
    The present invention is directed to crystalline forms , compositions containing the same, preparations, and uses thereof.
    Patent expiration dates:
    April 18, 2029

    If Belviq is tweaked to the above crystalline form, then that will have protecion till 2029

    The generics can still compete after 2023 for the original patent expiration.I would like to be wrong but I see the original belviq patent protection as on today imho is 2023

    source: drugsdotcom/availability/generic-belviqdothtml

  • Reply to

    Is it Fear?

    by mocwwwrb Jul 10, 2014 10:47 AM
    vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 10, 2014 2:02 PM Flag

    I too do not try to give thumbs down, i use ignore.I am at work and got confused between the two.I like your posts and you do not over-react with your responses

  • Reply to

    Is it Fear?

    by mocwwwrb Jul 10, 2014 10:47 AM
    vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 10, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    "It is always emotions with retail a flaw in the retail investor by nature, so yes fear." -- excellent point.
    JL's selling ( nobody knows the actual reason, it is got nothing to do with shorts imho,), it is the retail herd mentality that led to more selling. retails with poor conviction at the first place, retails who thought they would be lucky to get away with a neat profit in a short time, retails who hear over the coffeebreak that a stock is good & sell it when indicator is red " . I am a retail and this how I feel many of us and we lose more often.Regarding arna I believe in the long time story and am willing to add if driven to lower 4's.
    gscgaryc i tried to give thumbs up but gave a thumbs down by mistake.--sorry

  • vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 10, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    I do not believe in insiders theory though I was not happy to see the carnage that occurred.

  • Reply to

    Hey AF

    by stockranker12 Jul 9, 2014 8:59 AM
    vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 9, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    he is just a hack who thrives on getting clicks by using controversial self propelling agenda based articles in my opinion. His background is political science not science

  • vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 8, 2014 9:39 PM Flag

    lub, I am totally with you.
    These are the Q/Q scripts from iv

    Weekly Avg % Inc. Quarterly Dollars/AWS
    IMS Scripts Sales
    (during Q)

    Q4-13 4,405 $2,300,000 $522.10
    Q1-14 5,888 34% $2,900,000 $492.54
    Q2-14 8,454 44% Full 13 weeks

    These are the ongoing facts. Did any analyst / reporter bring out the fact -- no.
    Did any of those wackos talk anything positive like BelPhen, relaunch significant or not --no.

    They were just instilling fear to make the nervous retail sell.16% sell off is just over blown.

    I did not like the timing of Jack's sales ( I think it could be 12% or so), He could have got the stocks cheaper by cancelling it.Nobody knows the actual rationale why he sold, other than the speculation/noise which keeps getting whipped on & on (FUD)

    I did not like many of the moves made atleast by the IR( their poor response etc)

    I was not comfortable with the poor inside ownership or many of the Eisai mis-steps.

    But I like the Q over growth and am willing to wait for multi years.If it goes bust so be it. I think the facts do not look bad at all imho.It is a new product .There will be lot of mis-steps.Eventually I believe that they will get it correct.

    If it dips to lower 4's I will be a buyer at those levels.

  • vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 8, 2014 9:39 AM Flag

    bio, thanks for the info

  • Reply to

    KILL THE SENTIMENT

    by yelping.ratdog Jul 7, 2014 9:30 PM
    vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 8, 2014 6:45 AM Flag

    typo
    for "A word about arna's it."
    read "A word about arna's ir."

  • Reply to

    KILL THE SENTIMENT

    by yelping.ratdog Jul 7, 2014 9:30 PM
    vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 8, 2014 6:43 AM Flag

    From the retail longs stand point, on one side they get bombarded by false & misleading/distorted information from the media/reporters imho and when they expect Eisai/Arna to give some positive news on the relaunch efforts or some insight into BelPhen results, all they get is CEO dumping shares ( could be co-incidental, pre-planned, not much after tax etc ) but it is the timing of the news which affects the sentiments.Not many will do due-dtligence by taking a step back to see the actual facts behind the news., not to mention Lonnel Coates new job. Reporters like AF work like clockwork foaming the negatives and filtering the positives in my opinion and the sane voices are considered hostile.imho the sell-off is an over-reaction.

    Still,I feel the shorts are losing, A word about arna's it.They are ill-equipped for projecting any positive news for any damage control measures.
    the steadfast longs are'nt selling in my opinion. as the company's story has not changed.sscipt numbers are growing even during off-season, more sales rep being added.
    Some longs maybe adding.

  • Reply to

    KILL THE SENTIMENT

    by yelping.ratdog Jul 7, 2014 9:30 PM
    vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 8, 2014 6:14 AM Flag

    nice post.They exactly were doing that the whole week.

  • vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 7, 2014 11:56 PM Flag

    all the sane wacko analysts / reporters predicted that Belviq will not be approved.Where were you then?

  • vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 7, 2014 8:46 PM Flag

    IMS 6/27 Belviq TRX 9,776 NRX 7,492

    Qsymia 6/27 TRX Down 0.1% NRX up 0.1%
    wow percentage change
    Nobody cares about vvus, it will go bankrupt no money for post approval studies.

  • Reply to

    Spencer O. Weighs In.

    by bruce_waylon Jul 7, 2014 5:23 PM
    vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 7, 2014 7:51 PM Flag

    I agree with you.I may keep some money for re-entry but I feel that the pps will be pushed downwards as this sentiment will overweigh the actual positives imho.If it goes, higher I am fine missing the lows.I did not see the big tutes dumping, possibly lot of shorts might have covered.

  • Reply to

    Spencer O. Weighs In.

    by bruce_waylon Jul 7, 2014 5:23 PM
    vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 7, 2014 6:01 PM Flag

    typo "12-14% of his holdings" instead of 12-14$ of his holdings""

  • Reply to

    Spencer O. Weighs In.

    by bruce_waylon Jul 7, 2014 5:23 PM
    vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 7, 2014 6:00 PM Flag

    typo "12-14$% of his holdings" instead of 12-14$ of his holdings""
    "media wackos like AF" instead ofmedia wackos like""
    --work pressure, just got out

  • Reply to

    Spencer O. Weighs In.

    by bruce_waylon Jul 7, 2014 5:23 PM
    vjkstocks vjkstocks Jul 7, 2014 5:55 PM Flag

    none of the media wackos like etc will weigh in on the positives.I do not click on OS articles. There could be many reasons for the ceo selling and we do not know exactly.It was pre-planned and about 12-14$ of his holdings.Should this speculation warrant a selling of 12 million inspite of the positive script numbers, relaunch and addition of sales force all on the same day.imho selloff is overblown.

ARNA
3.97+0.05(+1.28%)12:03 PMEDT

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