for your consideration:
I wonder if approval will be more likely after deductibles reset to 0 at the first of the year. Ins co's cost will then go down a little. Maybe Solvadi's peak during 2Q14 is a clue that ins co's will pay until it starts to hurt them.
You are right - "The second you sell ,you know your going to say, I knew as soon as I got out of the stock it would rocket to new highs". I said that at 109, 108,107,106, 102.
By all rights it should be. However, ABBV fears may linger for a couple of months until script data shows a preference (Harvoni or Viekirax). Ultimately Harvoni will be the winner but Viekirax will get some sales. Concensus is $2b Viekirax, $12b Harvoni, IIRC. This however will take some time to sort out.
I would love to see a nice uptick in scripts this Friday but wondering if docs may have been waiting for AASLD postings to see if something great is on the horizon. Seeing nothing, they resume prescribing Har/Sov, but those scripts may not show up in last weeks numbers.
I must be missing something cause I don't see what advantage a PRV provides. Standard NDA review is 10 months. PRV is 6 months but 90 pre-notification means its really 9 months. So is 1 month worth $125mm?
I'm very bullish GILD. I just don't understand.
PRV, from what I've read, cant be used for 1 year. So what potential blockbuster in GILD's pipeline would be ready for NDA/BLA in 1 year?
I don't think its the $1,000 pill that's the problem. Its the 3.2 million patients.
As news from AASLD gets digested, MM sees op to push price around massively. However the bottom line is - Harvoni/Sovaldi has set the bar out of reach of the contenders. They may put up exciting headlines but don't stand up to scrutiny.
I believe we will close on the + side as positive expectations of Friday's script numbers overtake concerns of competition.
Plus this update from Merrill:
Today’s C-SWIFT disappointment only reaffirms our view that GILD still has the
upper hand in the HCV developmental landscape. Recall that GILD has two 6-week
regimens in development combining Harvoni with either GS-9669 (non-nuc NS5B
inhibitor) or GS-9451 (protease inhibitor) have both already demonstrated SVR12
rates of 95% and 100%, respectively, in the NIAID SYNERGY trial. While we await
confirmatory Phase 2 data in a larger patient population, we are encouraged by the
fact that to date, GILD is the only company that has successfully shown strong
SVR12 rates with treatment durations shorter than 8 weeks. We believe the CSWIFT
disappointment will reinforce investor confidence in GILD’s HCV franchise,
and remove the recent overhang on GILD.