Saying Davis is weak because he did not stop or counter Uli when he made the big misstatement about the co being ready to submit NDA is not justified. Davis came to acAD as CFO in mid 2014. Not reasonable to expect he would push back at the CEO about something other than financial reporting late that year or even a year later.
Look at the latest presentation on the NFX web site, the one labeled NFX-Aug 4, 2015. Slide 20 -23 give their oil and gas hedges. Comparing this to production levels it appears they have hedged ~50,000 bbls per day of the 60,000 they will produce at a level of $65 to 75 / bbl for rest of 2015 and slightly lower amts for 2016. Uncertainty comes from whether this hedging includes NGL production, and whther this includes the production in china oil field (10 % of oil). However, management has always been pretty conservative in this regard --- always hedging a pretty high fraction of production.
Googling Tourbillon Capital Partners gives a number of hits. One site had a listing of their top ten holdings, but all I could see without becoming a member was number 5-10. They included Teva Pharm, HRG and AAPL. On another site I found a Bloomberg story describing how this group (21 employess and 4 bil under management) made a lot of money shorting in 20113-14.
Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Tourbillon Capital Partners LP, the hedge fund started last year by Jason Karp, said investments betting against MannKind Corp. and GT Advanced Technologies Inc. paid off as shorting stocks contributed most to its profits last quarter.
MannKind, which makes inhalable insulin that Tourbillon believes will struggle commercially, fell 46 percent in the third quarter. This helped produce a 71 percent return for New York-based Tourbillon, Karp wrote in a letter to investors, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News. The firm, which manages $1.3 billion, said the stock should fall to $1 from about $6.
GT Advanced filed for bankruptcy this month without specifying why. The company lost a bid to keep an executive’s description of the circumstances surrounding its bankruptcy under seal, endangering a settlement with Apple Inc., with which it had an agreement to supply the synthetic sapphire it uses in screens of mobile devices.
Tourbillon’s main fund rose 8.7 percent this year through September, according to the letter, after gaining 21 percent in 2013. Karp said his firm has outperformed average hedge funds, which do not deserve to charge “premium fees for an inferior product.”
Agree with what you say here, which looks very much like what Spader3000 is also saying. The entire Biotech sector, with only a few exceptions, is being played by the traders. I would like to add more ACAD at present price, but have no new cash to put in the market, and have not yet decided what I am willing to sell to get the cash.
Sorry, I am wrong. MacDonald has been with TTPH since 2008, and given the options he has received, one would think he should have accumulated more than he has if he had reasonable confidence in this company. Maybe he is ultra conservative with his personal finances. Not a great excuse though.
If you are going to comment, you should take a little time and get the facts right. The CEO has 70,000 shares left as of July 20. Over the past year he has been gradually accumulating, as best I can see from the YAHOO Finance site. He exercises options and sells some or occasionally all of the shares ( if the exercise is a small lot). Overall, however; he has gained shares over the past year. The number of shares he holds is small, but I think that is partly because he hasn't been with this Co. that long (about two yrs if my memory is correct).
Very helpful analysis Mike. This, together with the fact that Guwirtz et al and three other shyster outfits are all investigating the Co. behavior, will surely help all of us longer term shareholders get fair treatment.
Clearly RDHL tried make the offering much larger than the original 1.8 mil proposed, and it cost them their bargaining position. Either the Banks they were working with did not do their job, or RDHL changed their objective and it cost them much more than the market thought was reasonable. Stock price drops to offering price tomorrow; already near there in aftermarket
Am not naive enough to expect ACAD srock price to go straight up here, but since I am approaching a double and long term gain territory, I have added incentive to hang in as long as the news remains positive (also enjoy keeping pressure on shorts).
Stock, I believe the short interests covering is a big part of the strength in the stock price surge, particularly because the potential of forthcoming good news has become high and is adding to the shortage of willing sellers.
Baytdr, Two informative posts. Your analysis involving Aspire makes good sense, and seems like the kind of tactic an outfit like this is likely to be involved with. Perfectly legal, and exactly what they should be doing to try to maximize returns for their investors.