Breaking off from LIfecell should be immediately accretive to earnings. Their world wide opportunity is also unfolding nicely. The rollout of the nuclear medicine application in 2015 can't hurt either.
Patience is a virtue.
" Asian sales in Japan and China - through partners - have not even begun yet (regulatory approvals coming)."
I'm not aware yet of any guidance or specifics regarding SPY sales/prospects in Japan or mainland China....can you fill me in with any references?
With the current pps of ~15...
and we compound at 40% (growth) going out 5 years, we come up with a pps of 80.
Now that's a buyout price I could live with!
Thanks for your post.
Small correction: " Recently, Intuitive won a negligence case by a jury vote of 10 to 2. That verdict will impact on other pending cases". Actually this was old news from 2013, spun by Bloomberg as fresh news to keep their negative narrative going. Let's hope the best is yet to come.
It's a classic, time honored strategy honed by Apple, Microsoft and a host of other companies. That is, lower investor expectations and set up a "beat" to boost the share price. Certainly no CEO is going to repeatedly mention 40% growth,and then fall short. jmo
Story is intact and improving.
Xi will include Firefly as a standard.
Terminating LIfe Cell agreement is likely....
Will be immediately accretive to revenue.
At the same time, the costs of selling are going down since hospitals are getting more comfortable with
Novadaq's products and outcomes.
Love the educational forums (4 this year) where 200 surgeons of multi specialties get a tutorial from the company. at each forum...talk about cheap advertising!
We must be patient over the next 2-3 years as the technology. acquisitions and sales force all combine to make the magic happen.
Secondary Sales Squeeze Investors
Slide in Technology, Health-Care Stocks Has Burned Those Who Bought Into Follow-On Offerings
A piece in today's (June 3, 2014) WSJ by Matt Jarzemsky may answer our questions. ( Just google the headline/author to read it if Yahoo disallows the link). Novadaq has been caught in a web of institutional selling, not particularly relating to Novadaq, but rather because of its status as a highflier in the med/tech space. This initially caused the selloff of similar companies, but has since continued because of nervousness by institutions who lost money buying IPOs and secondary offerings. That the bad news. The good news is that Novadaq's fundamental story is 100% intact and getting stronger. In time this draft(hurricane) will subside, and the stock will once again trade on its amazing fundamentals.
Sentiment is everything, and it changes all the time.
Keep the faith!
A good many of those institutions you cited will be back for a second helping, probably at a higher price than they sold at.
Between the two of us, we could just vote out the existing board and take over the company. I'd be honored to fill in as your assistant CEO, when you're OUS cutting deals with Japan and India. Perhaps other distinguished members of this panel would also be agreeable to selflessly joining our board of directors....comments?
Whereas the revenue shortfall and subsequent drop in the share price was triggered by SPY Elite, I have a hunch that
the the negotiations will end sooner, rather than later, and much to Novadaq's advantage. Arun does not strike me as the kind of person who would tolerate what is an intolerable situation for very long.
If Lifecell wants to end the partnership, and Arun wants closure by year's end, then it sounds like Lifecell might be willing to abrogate the relationship earlier than full term in return for a severence fee.
"Expect resolution of the Lifecell agreement saga by years end".
I thought this comment was significant.
Maybe Lifecell will blink and a better financial arrangement for Novadaq will be agreed to by year's end. Wishful thinking?
One of the surgeons who presented at the last Investor day conference which I attended mentioned that the imaging of the Si firefly was not in color, and generally inferior to the whiz bang images of PInpoint. So I believe there's a good chance that Intuitive was eager to incorporate the latest and greatest imaging in firefly, and that is why I think Novadaq got a better financial deal with the Xi firefly awaiting FDA approval.
I'd like to be a fly on the wall to hear the negotiations between managements discussing the (new?) terms of their agreement regarding firefly in Xi . Novadaq may have the upper hand with both Intuitive and Life Cell.
Yes, the disappointing revenue numbers were a surprise. But anyone following the stock closely, as we have, know that the negotiations with Life Cell can only have a good outcome...either a better financial arrangement for us or simply go it alone, which imo is preferable. The fact is that we are no longer dependent on Life Cell to market SPY technology, so why share the profit? But the no nothings see a drop in revenue and dump the shares. I am surprised by the heavy 4M volume, but they'll all be back in force soon enough for long term investors like us. Love the CSF and the Aimago purchase!