I spoke in person to Tom Tambarrino, the newly appointed director of sales for Novadaq at last year's Investor Day conference. (He actually remembered me from the previous Investor Day conference). At any rate, in his presentation to the analysts, he seemed highly enthusiastic and intent on driving sales going forward, and he seemed to have a plan to do so. That being said, I believe that Arun has subsequently intimated (either on webcasts or cc, don't quite remember) that he was not happy with some of the hirees, and there indeed may have been some turnover in favor of more experienced reps. If so, I view this as a positive. Certainly in the Merrill lynch/UBS webcasts, his mood seems to have lightened up and he seems like he's now relishing his job more than ever.
I particularly like his comment that Novadaq is determined to maintain its first mover advantage via its patents/R & D pipeline vis a vis Stryker entry into the market. 102 pending patents may be a formidable moat, we'll just have to wait and see
Another point: I also view as positive that the company has put endometriosis clinial trials on the back burner because as inviting as that sounds, it must have been trumped by even more valuable Pillar 3 and FILM trials. Arun mentioned in answer to a question that but for the Lifecell transition, SPY in breast recon would have been SOC by now....so I believe that the future looks bright.
I can confirm that in May Arun bought 14,010 shares and Roger bought 60,000 shares.
What do they know? Arun mentioned a new account that just came in, and there was mention of the run rate for the entire year. I'll go back and listen to the webcast.
"looks like they should have waited until their own marketing effort on Pinpoint and Luna were fully established before taking over Spy Elite"
Good point. Seems like they were overwhelmed taking Lifecell back and lost their focus on PInpoint and Luna. But this is all short term growing pains that will fade in time. Speaking of time, let's remember that Pillar 3 and FILM are still on track to put Novadaq ahead of the pack, say, in a little over a year away. So let's not get hung up on temporary problems. jmho.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
For the past 2 days, Novadaq has outperformed the market on more than triple its average daily volume. Its pps has held above the round number of 10 on 2 occasions---Oct 22, 2014 and April 30, 2015. Hopefully the selling is all washed out and a rebound is in the works in the coming months.
To all my fellow board members~
I spoke with Steve Kilmer, Novadaq's director of investor relations this afternoon.
Here's is what he told me
1. Stryker's entrance into the florescent Imaging market, introduced at SAGES was not a surprise....they have been expecting it since .last year.
2. Pinpoint is a superior product because:
A) the visuals are better
B) Only PInpoint enables surgeons to switch from white light to fluorescent light without the need to switch cameras interrupting the procedure, and forcing surgeons to" remember" the previous image
c) Only Pinpoint has the capacity to overlay local and larger images of the structures
3. Stryker's product doesn't compete with either SPY Elite or Luna
4. He guesses that (1 or 2) institutions may be participating in the selloff.
5. Novadaq's patents make them bullet proof
6. Expect Stryker to postpone their own launch 6-12 months..
I'd like to think that you're right....certainly the company remains under the radar. Having attended the last 3 Investor day conferences and personally spoken to management (Arun, +
Warren Deck, now CFO and Tom Tambarrino, now VP sales, I still eagerly await the upcoming cc with full confidence that the story is still on track.
Also, short sellers could be initiating or adding to positions.
imo, it's a great day to do the opposite!
We'll know soon enough.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
nothing has changed since my March 11post.
(cut and pasted)
According to Nasdaq, the short interest is at a record 4.58 M as of Feb 27.
This represents over 8% of the outstanding shares, also a record, I believe. The days to cover was reduced from 20 down to 17, because the average daily volume increased slightly. Still, 17 elephants charging out the door at the same time to cover their shorts, is a lot of elephants! ( Hopefully a perfect storm for us bulls). .
A compounded growth rate of 15% for each of the next 5 years should translate to a pps of at least 1,000.
That sounds like a double, or a premium of 100% from today's closing price.. Personally I could live with that. Otherwise, I'd prefer to just hold on and take my chances.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I believe (but not certain) that shonin (approval) is considered every other year, while reimbursement follows in due course. However markets always look ahead. Any pop in pps would be tied to the shonin, imo