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Molycorp, Inc Common Stock Message Board

votingmachine 168 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 7, 2015 12:07 AM Member since: May 12, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Quick Q4 estimate

    by votingmachine Mar 5, 2015 6:53 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 5, 2015 7:30 PM Flag

    As a quick ballpark:
    $130 million revenues
    $121 million costs
    $27 million depreciation
    $22 million SG&A
    $4.5 million R&D
    $40 million interest

    ($84.5 million) net loss before taxes
    $3 million future tax credit
    $81.5 million loss.
    225 million shares
    $0.375 per share GAAP.

    Backing out the depreciation of $27 million leaves
    $54.5 million non GAAP loss
    225 million shares
    $0.24 per share loss, non-GAAP.

    The numbers could be several million off here and there. But I'll go with a bottom line number of $0.24 per share. A cash burn of about $55 million. Leaving a cash balance of $258 million cash on hand.

    If they indicate Q1 -15 has good results for the time they see, then the result would be in line, and favorable future results would be expected. If they say anything about strong demand and strong revenues in the Q1 to date, and give a good number for the cash cost estimate and production rate, then it will be a good report and CC.

  • Reply to

    Quick Q4 estimate

    by votingmachine Mar 5, 2015 6:53 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 5, 2015 7:06 PM Flag

    I'm never happy with the result of lining up segments not quite matching the total numbers they give. And I can never figure out what they include in the Mt Pass cost side. Or how interest moves around every quarter.

    I quickly see a math error in this for the Mt Pass costs.
    13.9 - 45 - 17.3 = (48.4) ... not the 62.3 I pulled out of a calculation (GIGO).
    I also just added the GAAP numbers rather than subtracting the negatives.

    Lining it up.
    segment . . . . . . Rev . . . . . Cost . . . . . . Dep. . . . . . GAAP
    Mag&Alloy . . . $62.7 M . . . $49 M . . . . . $4.2 M . . . . $9.5 M
    Chem&Ox . . . $43.5 M . . . $39.3 M . . . . $3.8 M . . . . $0.4 M
    RareMetal . . . $21.3 M . . . $20.7 M . . . . . $2 M . . . . ($1.4 M)
    Mt.Pass . . . . . $13.9 M . . . $45 M . . . $17.3 M . . . . ($48.4 M)

    Total . . . . . . . . $141.1 M . . . $154 M . . . $27.3 M . . . ($39.9 M)

    If I add the items in my first sentence and the interest:
    $40 + $12 + $14.8 + $5.9 + $35.4 = ($107.1)

    And the total GAAP loss was $105.2 not $105.1.

    I'm sure there are more errors.

  • votingmachine by votingmachine Mar 5, 2015 6:53 PM Flag

    They took a $12 million impairment of investment loss. That should not be present in Q4. There was a $14.8 M cost for debt issuance. There was a $5.9 M cost for debt retirement.

    Mt Pass produced 691 mt at $33.80 per kg, and they sold 1084 mt at $12.84 per kg. Revenue was $13.9 million. Costs should have been $23.4 million.

    SG&A ran at $21.9 million in Q3. And at $20.4 M in Q2.
    R&D ran at about $4.4 million in Q2 and Q3.
    Interest was $42.3 M in Q2 and $35.4 M in Q3.

    Lining it up.
    segment . . . . . . Rev . . . . . Cost . . . . . . Dep. . . . . . GAAP
    Mag&Alloy . . . $62.7 M . . . $49 M . . . . . $4.2 M . . . . $9.5 M
    Chem&Ox . . . $43.5 M . . . $39.3 M . . . . $3.8 M . . . . $0.4 M
    RareMetal . . . $21.3 M . . . $20.7 M . . . . . $2 M . . . . ($1.4 M)
    Mt.Pass . . . . . $13.9 M . . . $62.3 M . . . $17.3 M . . . . ($48.4 M)

    Total . . . . . . . . $141.1 M . . . $171.3 M . . . $27.3 M . . . ($57.5 M)
    Revenue and costs have to be corrected for interdepartment to get the real numbers.

    Add $35.4 M interest, $12 M writedown, other stuff ...the Q3 total was $105.1

    Q2 cash cost was $16.54 per kg at Mt Pass and Q3 was $33.8 per kg. They produced 1328 mt (from the PR) an costs were lower. Say they had $25 cash costs. The operating costs were $23.4 million in Q3.
    1328 x $25 = $33.2 M. So the cost side at Mt Pass should go up $10 million. An optimistic read on revenues at Mt Pass would be 1500 mt sold at $11 per kg.
    1500 x 11 = $16.5 M. So the revenue side at Mt Pass should go up $2.6 million. The net change is an increase of about $7-$8 million losses at Mt Pass.

    If the other segments tread water, The writedown should not repeat. Mt Pass should be slightly worse. Interest should be in the same wide range as the last 2 quarters. The most likely result seems a slightly better GAAP number. The non-GAAP number should be close to the same.

    That was pretty fast and sloppy. Tear it up, and I'll also do that.

  • Reply to

    The late filing

    by serious.rick Mar 4, 2015 7:07 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 5, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    You definitely are that clueless then?

    To be late, one has to be past a commitment. If a Yahoo date is a commitment, then yes they are "late". But since the company has never released a quarterly report on the Yahoo date, there surely must be some consideration given to the idea that the Yahoo date is note a company commitment.

    I have an entry on my calendar that your last post deadline was two weeks ago. You are not honoring that commitment.

  • Reply to

    30 day moving average

    by votingmachine Feb 11, 2015 6:06 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 3, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    The 30-day average keeps rising as the lows are getting replaced.

    Here are the last 30 days thru today's close
    day . . . date . . . . . close . . . . 30-total . . . . 30-avg
    30 . . . 20-Jan-15 . . . 0.46
    29 . . . 21-Jan-15 . . . 0.46
    28 . . . 22-Jan-15 . . . 0.38
    27 . . . 23-Jan-15 . . . 0.28 . . . 20.34 . . . 0.6780
    26 . . . 26-Jan-15 . . . 0.35 . . . 19.82 . . . 0.6607
    25 . . . 27-Jan-15 . . . 0.36 . . . 19.36 . . . 0.6453
    24 . . . 28-Jan-15 . . . 0.41 . . . 19.04 . . . 0.6347
    23 . . . 29-Jan-15 . . . 0.39 . . . 18.77 . . . 0.6257
    22 . . . 30-Jan-15 . . . 0.33 . . . 18.38 . . . 0.6127
    21 . . . 2-Feb-15 . . . 0.48 . . . 18.05 . . . 0.6017
    20 . . . 3-Feb-15 . . . 0.80 . . . 18.06 . . . 0.6020
    19 . . . 4-Feb-15 . . . 0.72 . . . 17.93 . . . 0.5977
    18 . . . 5-Feb-15 . . . 0.72 . . . 17.89 . . . 0.5963
    17 . . . 6-Feb-15 . . . 0.69 . . . 17.87 . . . 0.5957
    16 . . . 9-Feb-15 . . . 0.73 . . . 17.88 . . . 0.5960
    15 . . . 10-Feb-15 . . . 0.77 . . . 17.88 . . . 0.5960
    14 . . . 11-Feb-15 . . . 0.83 . . . 17.86 . . . 0.5953
    13 . . . 12-Feb-15 . . . 0.93 . . . 17.93 . . . 0.5977
    12 . . . 13-Feb-15 . . . 0.97 . . . 18.02 . . . 0.6007
    11 . . . 17-Feb-15 . . . 1.06 . . . 18.22 . . . 0.6073
    10 . . . 18-Feb-15 . . . 0.87 . . . 18.33 . . . 0.6110
    9 . . . 19-Feb-15 . . . 0.99 . . . 18.63 . . . 0.6210
    8 . . . 20-Feb-15 . . . 0.97 . . . 18.91 . . . 0.6303
    7 . . . 23-Feb-15 . . . 0.92 . . . 19.18 . . . 0.6393
    6 . . . 24-Feb-15 . . . 0.94 . . . 19.52 . . . 0.6507
    5 . . . 25-Feb-15 . . . 0.92 . . . 19.84 . . . 0.6613
    4 . . . 26-Feb-15 . . . 0.95 . . . 20.23 . . . 0.6743
    3 . . . 27-Feb-15 . . . 0.94 . . . 20.63 . . . 0.6877
    2 . . . 2-Mar-15 . . . 0.81 . . . 20.94 . . . 0.6980
    1 . . . 3-Mar-15 . . . 0.84 . . . 21.27 . . . 0.7090

    In 5 more days the average will not include the $0.28 close. I think there are about 11 market days until the Annual report release (projecting 3-18).

  • votingmachine votingmachine Mar 3, 2015 2:05 PM Flag

    They have longer than that. The rule is 90 days after the close of the year for an Annual report.

  • Reply to

    BUILD HER UP ON LITE VOLME

    by davedull Mar 3, 2015 11:10 AM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 3, 2015 2:04 PM Flag

    You have a talent for finding meaning that I lack. To me light volume just means light volume.

  • Reply to

    BUILD HER UP ON LITE VOLME

    by davedull Mar 3, 2015 11:10 AM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 3, 2015 12:41 PM Flag

    It is ALL light volume. Yesterday had about $5 million bought and sold. And tat was the highest volume in about 6 market days. Go back to Feb 18th for a high volume in stock shares, 14.1 million shares. Still only $12 million in actual money.

    There are a lot of shares changing hands, but very little real money.

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