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Molycorp, Inc. Message Board

votingmachine 167 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: May 12, 2004
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  • Reply to

    $40 million capital raise

    by monetizeall May 1, 2014 10:44 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine May 2, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    If they raise $40 million by stock sales they keep the $40 million. The deal described is stock. They have to be thinking they can get to a breakeven operation soon, if they are talking of raising $40 million. They had $73 million at the start of the year and have $23 million now. If they were losing $12 million per month in March, and see that shrinking each month, they could be hoping to get to a positive operational result quickly, and then do another quick offering to cover the $35 million debt payment.

    Say they lost $10 million in April, $7 million in May, $4 million in June, and $1 million in July, with August on path to a profit. They pre-announce on July 1st the Q2 numbers. Then at the report they show they progression, and state they are operating at breakeven currently. Then they probably could do a larger stock sale. They would basically burn the entire current $23 million, but have the $40 million on hand. That covers the September interest and they should be able to access the markets for the $45 million they need next spring.

    That is all VERY optimistic conjecture, but it sounds more like a stock sale being planned. And a small one. So they must be hoping for a better day later.

    I can see your analysis of the end state operations in the best case as sensible, which means that although they can shrink the operational losses, the final numbers don't grow to anything very impressive.

  • Reply to

    $40 million capital raise for Lynas

    by monetizeall May 1, 2014 11:48 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine May 3, 2014 4:40 PM Flag

    Molymet owns MCP stock. What they own is the same thing as every other long, a portion of Molycorp. That is far different from a partnership in the Mt Pass mine.

    The revenues are typically divided into 4 market segments. And the resource segment has been the smallest part of the revenues. Just read the quarterly reports. They also have said that while they are losing money on the resource sales, they will not be pursuing additional volume. As long as they were operating the legacy facility, and the incomplete Project Phoenix, they were operating at a negative margin on the resource side, at Mt Pass mine. Now they have finished Project Phoenix. The finished Project Phoenix generates a positive margin, at the target production levels and costs.

    The coming report will be a loss, and the loss will largely be driven by the large losses at Mt Pass ... same as the last several reports. The question is whether Molycorp can deliver on the cost and production goals, now that the entirety of Project Phoenix is complete, and the final CHlor-Alkali commissioned 2 months ago.

  • Reply to

    Trading hault or suspension. From DY board.

    by contraryj May 5, 2014 12:42 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine May 5, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    The longer this takes the more it looks like an emergency halt, and not just a delay while they prepare a package of news and deals for the market to digest. The initial halt made me think they have a plan in place and are just going to rip some band-aid off, but at least it will be done. Now as time creeps by you have to begin to think they DON'T have anything settled, but are in a tighter cash situation than expected.

    It is a long halt. And it is going to lead to speculation on everyone's part. There is money to be made in a rescue from near bankruptcy, and money to be made in bankruptcy. I took a very small position in SIRI when there was a believable rumor that they had a White Knight, that rumor turned out to be true. It could have gone bankrupt, it didn't. My only regret is that I sold long ago. Certainly keep an ear peeled for any rumors. At the moment ... anything can happen.

    For anyone with a losing position. Siri was as low as $0.08 when they were going bankrupt. SIRI traded as high as $4.18 last year and is $3.20 right now. I am the all time idiot, because I traded in and out, and when I finally traded completely out, I had over 220,000 shares. AGGHH. Just typing that makes me want to kick myself. But hey ... you just never know.

  • Reply to

    Trading hault or suspension. From DY board.

    by contraryj May 5, 2014 12:42 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine May 5, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    As time slips away, you have to think here isn't a deal in place, but that they are winging it, and that it must be desperation time.

    There is nothing to make me buy, but I do admit that with the right deal, I might see an opportunity. Right now, it looks like stockholders are more likely to own all-of-nothing, and the question is if that switches, and they own part-of-something. In the case of SIRI, 40% ownership of the company went to the White Knight. But 60% of an adequately funded business was an acceptable proposition for shareholders ... especially when the alternative had looked like a forfeiture and seizure by the guy who had been buying the debt up and was pushing for failure.

    I am very skeptical of the situation. This no longer looks like a halt while they work out the last details on a deal that was difficult to keep secret. I don't see any rumors at all.

  • votingmachine by votingmachine May 6, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    I notice that the volume for the last 6 days (not including today is low. The average volume is falling. Going back to April 5th (about a month ago) only 5 days of 20 market days have been over 4 million shares volume.

    Volume will pick up with the news events coming up. MCP stock has sold off back to near the all time lows. Th last reported short interest was 65,456,472, for trades settling by 4-15.

    I sure hope that Molycorp beats and then has a good show at the analyst day. The shorts need to start feeling some pain rather than playing on the Yahoo MB, while running the stock down.

    This stock is crazy good value here. It has fallen as though they are going to announce just awful results, and have nothing positive to say about the future.

  • Reply to

    Should see 3.25 after earnings

    by silverfin226 May 6, 2014 10:56 AM
    votingmachine votingmachine May 6, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    That would be absurd. 30% lower than the current price, which is a dime off the all time lows? Get real. Molycorp hasn't had any good news at quarterly reports for a long time and it is pretty clear the market is pricing in a big miss.

  • votingmachine votingmachine May 6, 2014 12:24 PM Flag

    I think they hit better in Mag?Alloy than in Q4, but not a grand slam. A reasonably optimistc expectation is:

    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q4-2013 . . . . . . . . . Q3-2013
    REO: . . . . . . . . . . . . $11 M . . . . . . . . . . . . $14 M
    Chem&Ox . . . . . . . . $55 M . . . . . . . . . . . . $58 M
    Mag/Alloy . . . . . . . . $59 M . . . . . . . . . . . . $73 M
    Rare Metal . . . . . . . $15 M . . . . . . . . . . . . $21 M

    Resource . . . . . 1100 x $10.5 ASP = $11.6 million revenues, $50 million loss, ($11 M d&a)
    Oxides . . . . . . . 1800 x $31.5 ASP = $56.7 million revenues, $5 million loss, ($6 M d&a)
    Mag+Alloy . . . . 1600 x $44 ASP = $70.4 million revenues, $5 million profit, ($10 M d&a)
    Rare Metal . . . . . 75 x $200 ASP = $15 million revenues, $5 million loss, ($2 M d&a)

    That is:
    $153.7 million revenues.
    $26 million operations loss.
    $15 million interest cost (adds to loss).
    $41 million non-GAAP loss.
    $0.17 per share loss.
    $273 million cash on hand.
    $30 million inventory write downs.
    $29 million depreciation and amortization.
    $8 million tax credit.
    GAAP loss: $92 million, $0.38 per share.

    In reality, the write-downs and depreciation are book value changes, that show as a quarterly loss, but are not as important as the non-GAAP loss, which is money out of the cash pile.

    This is only a mildly optimistic guess. The company is carried by the Mag+Alloy segment. They need that to grow. It would not surprise me to see $70 million in revenues there, to see 1600 mt volume.

    As we all know, the business case for success has had a key element of turning Mt Pass from that $50 million loss to profits. With the completion of the last parts of the facility near the end of Q1, we need to see a reason to keep expecting that turnaround. Addressing that is going to be the subject for MANY questions in the CC and in the plant tour next week. The ramp up plan has to be solid.

  • Reply to

    On Schedule

    by bigalsab May 6, 2014 10:12 AM
    votingmachine votingmachine May 6, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    $40 million at $0.10 per share would be 400 million shares. The average volume on Lyc.Ax is 8 million per day ... a paltry $1 million or so of trades. The volume is a killer to a share sale. It is easy enough to get 10x the normal volume, even 20x. But they need 50x the normal volume to access the equity market investors. And if they are trying to place the shares, anyone buying knows they are limited in their ability to trade.

    The halt is getting ridiculous now. They need to re-start trading. When they have a deal in place, finish it off and announce it immediately. And if they can't get a deal, then let the market have a chance at valuing the company in whatever financial condition it is.

  • Reply to

    Cost guesses

    by votingmachine Apr 28, 2014 12:51 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine May 6, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    Bump ... News will be out soon ... any guesses?

  • Reply to

    OK, No one dares to predict this time

    by pursistor May 6, 2014 5:21 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine May 6, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    Yeah that is funny. I tried to start a prediction thread on what the current cost of production is, and it went nowhere.

    I will guess $150 million revenues and $0.19 per share loss. That is a slight beat of the analyst $144 million revenues and $0.21 loss.

    My prior guesses:
    Q1 costs are slightly lower than Q4 with a cost of production at Mt Pass of $23 per kg.
    Run rate at this moment (ie, May 7th number) at half the rated production, call it a 2500 mt per quarter rate, and that the costs (as of May 7th) are $16 per kg.

  • Reply to

    Reinstatement to Official Quotation!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    by gham_13 May 5, 2014 8:37 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine May 6, 2014 6:32 PM Flag

    There was coverage on miningweekly:

    Mineral sands miner Lynas was hoping to raise as much as A$40-million through a share placement to augment working capital during the ramp-up of the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (Lamp), in Malaysia.

    The ASX-listed miner said on Tuesday that it would undertake a fully underwritten share purchase plan (SPP) to raise a minimum of A$30-million. The SPP would allow eligible shareholders to apply for up to A$15 000 in new shares.

    The company would also look to top up the SPP with a A$10-million share placement.

    The issue price for the SPP and the placement would be a 17.5% discount to the average price during the five trading days up to the SPP shortfall date, rounded up to the nearest 0.1c.

    Meanwhile, Lynas also on Tuesday announced that it had selected Nomura Australia to arrange the purchase and amendment of the $225-million Sojitz/Japan Oil, Gas and Metal National Corporation (Jogmec) senior secured facility.

    The terms of the purchase and amendment were subject to further negotiation and were conditional upon requisite approvals, the completion of due diligence and definitive documentation.

    The proposed transaction included the replacement of the current Sojitz/Jogmec repayment schedule with a single repayment of the entire facility in June 2016.

    Lynas chairperson Nicholas Curtis said on Tuesday that the capital raising and proposed debt amendment provided Lynas with a solid financial base, and addressed any liquidity concerns that the market might have had.

    GOogle for the rest.

  • Reply to

    OK, No one dares to predict this time

    by pursistor May 6, 2014 5:21 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine May 6, 2014 6:38 PM Flag

    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Q4-2013 . . . . . . . . . Q3-2013
    REO: . . . . . . . . . . . . $11 M . . . . . . . . . . . . $14 M
    Chem&Ox . . . . . . . . $55 M . . . . . . . . . . . . $58 M
    Mag/Alloy . . . . . . . . $59 M . . . . . . . . . . . . $73 M
    Rare Metal . . . . . . . $15 M . . . . . . . . . . . . $21 M

    Resource . . . . . 1100 x $10.5 ASP = $11.6 million revenues, $50 million loss, ($11 M d&a)
    Oxides . . . . . . . 1800 x $31.5 ASP = $56.7 million revenues, $5 million loss, ($6 M d&a)
    Mag+Alloy . . . . 1600 x $44 ASP = $70.4 million revenues, $5 million profit, ($10 M d&a)
    Rare Metal . . . . . 75 x $200 ASP = $15 million revenues, $5 million loss, ($2 M d&a)

    That is:
    $153 million revenues.
    $26 million operations loss.
    $15 million interest cost (adds to loss).
    $41 million non-GAAP loss.
    $0.17 per share loss.
    $273 million cash on hand.
    $30 million inventory write downs.
    $29 million depreciation and amortization.
    $8 million tax credit.
    GAAP loss: $92 million, $0.38 per share.

    I think the profit I put in there for Mag+Alloy should be omitted, which is then an operational loss of $31 million, and a non-GAAP loss of $46 million and a $0.19 per share. Cash on hand would adjust to $268 million.

  • Reply to

    OK, No one dares to predict this time

    by pursistor May 6, 2014 5:21 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine May 6, 2014 7:06 PM Flag

    It is purely a matter of guessing. Last quarter's revenues were awful. The failure to grow any volume was particularly noticeable in the Mag+Alloy segment where they had been showing good results for several quarters.

    There really is no solid basis to predict. I can't go back to the groth curve they were on. I don't think the Q3 to Q4 progression of shrinking volume is one that will continue. But the analysts clearly expect very little in revenues, $144 million. If Q4 was around $140 million, I hate to think the Q1 number is that much of a repeat.

    Even though I know the growth projections have all been based on Project Phoenix completion, and that only happened in March ... I still expect some improvement in the Mag+Alloy segment. Q4 looked anomylous. Hopefully that appearance as an exception is confirmed this quarter.

    But it is just guessing. I've not seen any other reports that give me a lot of indication for what to expect from Molycorp.

  • Reply to

    almost at new 52 week lows.

    by jk4763 May 7, 2014 7:33 AM
    votingmachine votingmachine May 7, 2014 8:26 AM Flag

    I don't see anyone predicting good results.

  • Reply to

    Reinstatement to Official Quotation!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    by gham_13 May 5, 2014 8:37 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine May 7, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    Has anyone calculated the exact offering price? I think LYSCF was about $0.16 in the 5 days prior to SPP. That would be $0.132 offering. $0.15 prior would be $0.124 (0.825 x the average).

    At $0.132 per share, $30 million is 227 million shares. I wonder what the fees for running a high volume of shares on a low volume stock will be.

    I'm not sure what the SPP shortfall date is either. And is the offering to "eligible" shareholders a limit, or just noise?

  • Reply to

    creating panic....

    by blooooooodsucker May 7, 2014 10:29 AM
    votingmachine votingmachine May 7, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    I can't see any reason to sell. I think the low volume is letting shorts put a small amount into pushing towards panic ... and new all-time lows do that. And especially as people ALWAYS wonder if information is leaking.

    It also is true that the price tends to swing on news. I hate the current price but I'm not selling.

  • votingmachine by votingmachine May 7, 2014 4:45 PM Flag

    I've only glanced at the report. Certainly they have disappointing to-lin numbers. But the After hours volume is a paltry 165,000 shares right now. A few sales (by shorts perhaps?) saturated the limited buy orders in AH and the price is down disproportionately.

    The numbers are a clear miss on revenues and eps: $118 million revenues and $0.29 loss per share.

    The cash on hand is $236 million.

    As always you have to parse the non-GAAP to be sure of the numbers but they said:
    Molycorp reported a loss attributable to common stockholders of $88.9 million, or $0.40 per share. Adjusted loss per share of $0.29 in the first quarter does not reflect out-of-ordinary business expenses, and certain other non-cash items.

    The Company reported negative cash flows from operating activities of $45.8 million during the first quarter, and had $236.1 million in cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2014.

    The bottom line is that the Q1 results were worse than expected. But anyone chasing the bid in after hours is crazy. Wait and hear the CC. Listen to the Q&A. And make your determination about the future and investment potential then.

  • Reply to

    Earnings report

    by denverdude123 May 7, 2014 4:25 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine May 7, 2014 4:57 PM Flag

    As a business case you either use 20 years or a shorter number if there is a known replacement lifetime. But in practical terms, you maintain the facility and overhaul and upgrade as appropriate. We won't know any annual costs of maintenance for quite a while. There are things which last much, much longer than 20 years, and things which wear out in 5 years. You just can't expect the same lifetime from a rubber conveyer belt that you do from a steel pipe.

  • Reply to

    Earnings report

    by denverdude123 May 7, 2014 4:25 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine May 7, 2014 5:00 PM Flag

    The volume and revenues declining are definitely big issues. They need to produce larger supplies that are matched to larger orders.

    The only comment in the report on the ramp up is:
    The Company reported that its production ramp-up at Mountain Pass is continuing as are process optimization and debottlenecking efforts that are helping to strengthen the system, increase recoveries, and increase throughput.

    It will be interesting to hear the status questions in the CC.

  • votingmachine votingmachine May 7, 2014 5:07 PM Flag

    No. It is completely uncontrolled.It is a matter of bid matching. You sell at the bid and buy at the ask. If there is not a lot of bids for shares (and why would there be?) then a small volume of sales will fill those.

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