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Molycorp, Inc. Message Board

votingmachine 152 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: May 12, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Molycorp Earnings Report

    by kennethp1 Mar 1, 2015 4:25 AM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 1, 2015 5:27 PM Flag

    I think there is a requirement from the SEC/NYSE about issuing a press release to schedule the release of the Annual report and conference call. They can hardly have a conference call for investors without telling people. By your reasoning, they may be having a conference call right now, and presenting the results.

    At one point I was fairly certain there was a rule that said the quarterly financial results (including the annual filing) had to be scheduled and a a press release about that schedule had to be issued a week in advance. But now I am not able to find that rule to really state it with certainty. There are requirements for publicly traded companies. Rules from the stock exchanges, and rules from the SEC.

    Here is a bit of NYSE gobbledy#$%$:
    203.01 Annual Financial Statement Requirement

    Any company with voting or non-voting common securities listed on the Exchange that is required to file with the SEC an annual report that includes audited financial statements (including on Forms 10-K, 20-F, 40-F or N-CSR) is required to simultaneously make such annual report available to shareholders of such securities on or through the company's website.

    I'm not sure of the rule on a PR for a CC. But I don't think they can realistically just toss out an Annual report on a whim. They can indeed change the pattern. For a long time they were only reporting on Thursday, but now they have been using Wednesday.

  • Reply to

    Nonsense about the earnings reports

    by namvu Mar 1, 2015 3:11 AM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 1, 2015 5:36 PM Flag

    So what is your point? That we don't know the date to expect? Or that they are late? Because anyone is free to say that they might change the pattern. But you can't really say they are late, when they seem to have ALWAYS been later than the suggested March 2nd date. The rule requires Annual reports be released within 90 days of the end of the fiscal year. So they aren't late until April 1st.

    Are you suggesting they are late? Or that people who see the pattern are cannot generalize with certainty?

  • votingmachine votingmachine Mar 1, 2015 5:39 PM Flag

    Yeah, I'm worried that they might walk it up to $25. They are so unpredictable.

  • Reply to

    BUILD HER UP ON LITE VOLME

    by davedull Mar 3, 2015 11:10 AM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 3, 2015 12:41 PM Flag

    It is ALL light volume. Yesterday had about $5 million bought and sold. And tat was the highest volume in about 6 market days. Go back to Feb 18th for a high volume in stock shares, 14.1 million shares. Still only $12 million in actual money.

    There are a lot of shares changing hands, but very little real money.

  • Reply to

    BUILD HER UP ON LITE VOLME

    by davedull Mar 3, 2015 11:10 AM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 3, 2015 2:04 PM Flag

    You have a talent for finding meaning that I lack. To me light volume just means light volume.

  • votingmachine votingmachine Mar 3, 2015 2:05 PM Flag

    They have longer than that. The rule is 90 days after the close of the year for an Annual report.

  • Reply to

    30 day moving average

    by votingmachine Feb 11, 2015 6:06 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 3, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    The 30-day average keeps rising as the lows are getting replaced.

    Here are the last 30 days thru today's close
    day . . . date . . . . . close . . . . 30-total . . . . 30-avg
    30 . . . 20-Jan-15 . . . 0.46
    29 . . . 21-Jan-15 . . . 0.46
    28 . . . 22-Jan-15 . . . 0.38
    27 . . . 23-Jan-15 . . . 0.28 . . . 20.34 . . . 0.6780
    26 . . . 26-Jan-15 . . . 0.35 . . . 19.82 . . . 0.6607
    25 . . . 27-Jan-15 . . . 0.36 . . . 19.36 . . . 0.6453
    24 . . . 28-Jan-15 . . . 0.41 . . . 19.04 . . . 0.6347
    23 . . . 29-Jan-15 . . . 0.39 . . . 18.77 . . . 0.6257
    22 . . . 30-Jan-15 . . . 0.33 . . . 18.38 . . . 0.6127
    21 . . . 2-Feb-15 . . . 0.48 . . . 18.05 . . . 0.6017
    20 . . . 3-Feb-15 . . . 0.80 . . . 18.06 . . . 0.6020
    19 . . . 4-Feb-15 . . . 0.72 . . . 17.93 . . . 0.5977
    18 . . . 5-Feb-15 . . . 0.72 . . . 17.89 . . . 0.5963
    17 . . . 6-Feb-15 . . . 0.69 . . . 17.87 . . . 0.5957
    16 . . . 9-Feb-15 . . . 0.73 . . . 17.88 . . . 0.5960
    15 . . . 10-Feb-15 . . . 0.77 . . . 17.88 . . . 0.5960
    14 . . . 11-Feb-15 . . . 0.83 . . . 17.86 . . . 0.5953
    13 . . . 12-Feb-15 . . . 0.93 . . . 17.93 . . . 0.5977
    12 . . . 13-Feb-15 . . . 0.97 . . . 18.02 . . . 0.6007
    11 . . . 17-Feb-15 . . . 1.06 . . . 18.22 . . . 0.6073
    10 . . . 18-Feb-15 . . . 0.87 . . . 18.33 . . . 0.6110
    9 . . . 19-Feb-15 . . . 0.99 . . . 18.63 . . . 0.6210
    8 . . . 20-Feb-15 . . . 0.97 . . . 18.91 . . . 0.6303
    7 . . . 23-Feb-15 . . . 0.92 . . . 19.18 . . . 0.6393
    6 . . . 24-Feb-15 . . . 0.94 . . . 19.52 . . . 0.6507
    5 . . . 25-Feb-15 . . . 0.92 . . . 19.84 . . . 0.6613
    4 . . . 26-Feb-15 . . . 0.95 . . . 20.23 . . . 0.6743
    3 . . . 27-Feb-15 . . . 0.94 . . . 20.63 . . . 0.6877
    2 . . . 2-Mar-15 . . . 0.81 . . . 20.94 . . . 0.6980
    1 . . . 3-Mar-15 . . . 0.84 . . . 21.27 . . . 0.7090

    In 5 more days the average will not include the $0.28 close. I think there are about 11 market days until the Annual report release (projecting 3-18).

  • Reply to

    The late filing

    by serious.rick Mar 4, 2015 7:07 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 5, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    You definitely are that clueless then?

    To be late, one has to be past a commitment. If a Yahoo date is a commitment, then yes they are "late". But since the company has never released a quarterly report on the Yahoo date, there surely must be some consideration given to the idea that the Yahoo date is note a company commitment.

    I have an entry on my calendar that your last post deadline was two weeks ago. You are not honoring that commitment.

  • votingmachine by votingmachine Mar 5, 2015 6:53 PM Flag

    They took a $12 million impairment of investment loss. That should not be present in Q4. There was a $14.8 M cost for debt issuance. There was a $5.9 M cost for debt retirement.

    Mt Pass produced 691 mt at $33.80 per kg, and they sold 1084 mt at $12.84 per kg. Revenue was $13.9 million. Costs should have been $23.4 million.

    SG&A ran at $21.9 million in Q3. And at $20.4 M in Q2.
    R&D ran at about $4.4 million in Q2 and Q3.
    Interest was $42.3 M in Q2 and $35.4 M in Q3.

    Lining it up.
    segment . . . . . . Rev . . . . . Cost . . . . . . Dep. . . . . . GAAP
    Mag&Alloy . . . $62.7 M . . . $49 M . . . . . $4.2 M . . . . $9.5 M
    Chem&Ox . . . $43.5 M . . . $39.3 M . . . . $3.8 M . . . . $0.4 M
    RareMetal . . . $21.3 M . . . $20.7 M . . . . . $2 M . . . . ($1.4 M)
    Mt.Pass . . . . . $13.9 M . . . $62.3 M . . . $17.3 M . . . . ($48.4 M)

    Total . . . . . . . . $141.1 M . . . $171.3 M . . . $27.3 M . . . ($57.5 M)
    Revenue and costs have to be corrected for interdepartment to get the real numbers.

    Add $35.4 M interest, $12 M writedown, other stuff ...the Q3 total was $105.1

    Q2 cash cost was $16.54 per kg at Mt Pass and Q3 was $33.8 per kg. They produced 1328 mt (from the PR) an costs were lower. Say they had $25 cash costs. The operating costs were $23.4 million in Q3.
    1328 x $25 = $33.2 M. So the cost side at Mt Pass should go up $10 million. An optimistic read on revenues at Mt Pass would be 1500 mt sold at $11 per kg.
    1500 x 11 = $16.5 M. So the revenue side at Mt Pass should go up $2.6 million. The net change is an increase of about $7-$8 million losses at Mt Pass.

    If the other segments tread water, The writedown should not repeat. Mt Pass should be slightly worse. Interest should be in the same wide range as the last 2 quarters. The most likely result seems a slightly better GAAP number. The non-GAAP number should be close to the same.

    That was pretty fast and sloppy. Tear it up, and I'll also do that.

  • Reply to

    Quick Q4 estimate

    by votingmachine Mar 5, 2015 6:53 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 5, 2015 7:06 PM Flag

    I'm never happy with the result of lining up segments not quite matching the total numbers they give. And I can never figure out what they include in the Mt Pass cost side. Or how interest moves around every quarter.

    I quickly see a math error in this for the Mt Pass costs.
    13.9 - 45 - 17.3 = (48.4) ... not the 62.3 I pulled out of a calculation (GIGO).
    I also just added the GAAP numbers rather than subtracting the negatives.

    Lining it up.
    segment . . . . . . Rev . . . . . Cost . . . . . . Dep. . . . . . GAAP
    Mag&Alloy . . . $62.7 M . . . $49 M . . . . . $4.2 M . . . . $9.5 M
    Chem&Ox . . . $43.5 M . . . $39.3 M . . . . $3.8 M . . . . $0.4 M
    RareMetal . . . $21.3 M . . . $20.7 M . . . . . $2 M . . . . ($1.4 M)
    Mt.Pass . . . . . $13.9 M . . . $45 M . . . $17.3 M . . . . ($48.4 M)

    Total . . . . . . . . $141.1 M . . . $154 M . . . $27.3 M . . . ($39.9 M)

    If I add the items in my first sentence and the interest:
    $40 + $12 + $14.8 + $5.9 + $35.4 = ($107.1)

    And the total GAAP loss was $105.2 not $105.1.

    I'm sure there are more errors.

  • Reply to

    Quick Q4 estimate

    by votingmachine Mar 5, 2015 6:53 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 5, 2015 7:30 PM Flag

    As a quick ballpark:
    $130 million revenues
    $121 million costs
    $27 million depreciation
    $22 million SG&A
    $4.5 million R&D
    $40 million interest

    ($84.5 million) net loss before taxes
    $3 million future tax credit
    $81.5 million loss.
    225 million shares
    $0.375 per share GAAP.

    Backing out the depreciation of $27 million leaves
    $54.5 million non GAAP loss
    225 million shares
    $0.24 per share loss, non-GAAP.

    The numbers could be several million off here and there. But I'll go with a bottom line number of $0.24 per share. A cash burn of about $55 million. Leaving a cash balance of $258 million cash on hand.

    If they indicate Q1 -15 has good results for the time they see, then the result would be in line, and favorable future results would be expected. If they say anything about strong demand and strong revenues in the Q1 to date, and give a good number for the cash cost estimate and production rate, then it will be a good report and CC.

  • Reply to

    Quick Q4 estimate

    by votingmachine Mar 5, 2015 6:53 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 6, 2015 9:48 AM Flag

    I typed it as I looked at Q3 numbers and the PR. Pretty sloppy. They provide the numbers in different formats and I always have trouble figuring out what goes where. I always have to look at the Q2 and Q3 cash balance numbers ... using the 6-months-ending and the 9-months-ending set to figure the 3 months of the quarter. That leads to leaving things out.

    $30 million CapEx would drop the cash on hand to $228 million.

    Hard to say on the revenue. I gave them the benefit of selling more than production again.

    Cash flow wise, the operational loss is probably higher than I gave, for your reason and also I was rather generous in cost progress. So revenues lower, costs higher. And CapEx on the cash on hand side. Ouch, that hurts to see that I was that sloppy. In my defense, it was not something I spent much time on.

    Trying again ...

    As a quick ballpark:
    $125 million revenues
    $125 million direct costs
    $27 million depreciation
    $22 million SG&A
    $4.5 million R&D
    $40 million interest

    ($93.5 million) net loss before taxes
    $3 million future tax credit
    $90.5 million loss.
    225 million shares
    $0.402 per share GAAP.

    Backing out the depreciation of $27 million leaves
    $66.5 million non GAAP loss
    225 million shares
    $0.296 per share loss, non-GAAP.

    Cash on hand would go: $313 million - $66.5 million - 20.5 million CapEx
    So about $226 million cash on hand.

    I am close to being able to put together a set of estimates I could see as reasonable. I still need to push it around a bit.

  • votingmachine votingmachine Mar 6, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    The Annual report is going to be the same. The CC will certainly see them asked about anuary and February production and cash cost numbers. They generally have an estimate of the cash cost they are seeing and the production they are seeing. They don't like to get too specific, but they will give some ballpark ... "similar to december", etc.

    The Q4 results will be bad. The thing they need to deliver is high rate of production and low cash costs from the Mt Pass operations. Q3 was a huge step backwards. Chlor-alkali failure. Purchasing HCl at high costs. Production rate down sharply. Cost up sharply. Delaying further that far future operation target.

    Q4 won't see costs reduced that much, or production increased that much. But they are making slow progress at getting Mt Pass moved towards the targets. The CC is always more important ... if they give reasonable answers to the obvious questions.

    The obvious questions:
    When will you be fully operational at target rates?
    When are the costs now, and when will they drop?
    When will you hit the targets for the additional Oaktree funding?
    When is break even projected?
    Is there enough cash to get to the Oaktree funding time?
    Is there enough cash to get to the break even operation?
    What is CapEx for 2015 and beyond?
    What funding options are they pursuing?
    What about the listing requirements?

    They will report a second straight quarter of high cash burn. If they can't project a future path that doesn't clearly get to breakeven without needing further capital, the stock will get hammered. If they can give enough positive numbers and expectations then the stock will advance.

    They will face hostile questioning. The obvious hostile question is:
    Q3 burned over $90 million. Q4 burned a similar amount. Extrapolate that as future results. You're now almost done with Q1. So you probably have $150 million cash on hand at the most. You aren't close to Oaktree $150 million release. How ...?

  • Reply to

    When will MCP get the delist from the NYSE ?

    by jk4763 Mar 6, 2015 8:04 AM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 6, 2015 10:29 AM Flag

    You could easily read the letter and know the exact date that MCP stock price must comply, or they have to request an extension.

    From the letter:

    "on December 30, 2014, the Company was notified by the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE") that the Company's common stock is not in compliance"

    "Under the NYSE's rules, the Company has a period of six months from the date of the NYSE notice to bring its 30-day average share price back above $1.00."

    So June 30, 2015 is the deadline to have a compliant stock price (30-day average above $1). There is a process for requesting more time though.

  • Reply to

    30 day moving average

    by votingmachine Feb 11, 2015 6:06 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 9, 2015 11:08 AM Flag

    The 30-day moving average for Friday goes back to January 23rd, which was the low close. Today's closing price will knock that 28-cent close out of the average. Replacing that 28-cents with 88-cents raises the average by 2-cents. The next 7 days will see the lowest prices fall out of the 30-day moving average. If there is any bump from the Annual report ...

  • Reply to

    03/16/15 reporting deadline?

    by michael.sanclemente Mar 9, 2015 9:08 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 10, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    I'm a little bit anxious now. It seems like a PR announcing the report release and CC should have happened. They can report as late as Monday according to the accelerated filer category SEC rule. But I like advance PR of the date and time.

    I just sent an email to IR. I'll post any reply.

  • votingmachine by votingmachine Mar 11, 2015 8:38 AM Flag

    I don't see a PR linked on the Yahoo page ... but there is a PR out:

    GREENWOOD VILLAGE, Colo. (March 11, 2015) -- Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE: MCP) today announced that it will release financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2014 after the market closes on Monday, March 16, 2015. Release of Molycorp's financial results will be followed by an investor conference call on Tuesday, March 17, 2015 at 9:00 a.m. Eastern, hosted by Geoff Bedford, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Michael Doolan, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

  • votingmachine by votingmachine Mar 13, 2015 6:04 PM Flag

    There was a post a while back that shorts were paying 30% to borrow. What are they paying now ... anyone know?

    And does the interest rate go up and down for existing shorts? If you have a $100 short position, do you pay 10% APR one day, and another day pay a 5% APR, as the shares get easier to borrow?

  • Reply to

    Short interest rate

    by votingmachine Mar 13, 2015 6:04 PM
    votingmachine votingmachine Mar 13, 2015 8:59 PM Flag

    Thanks dextronius. That does answer my question. It is a market rate that changes daily. Obviously the market rate will be different for different stocks, but I did wonder if the rate was fixed. If Monitizeall's datapoint on the rate is right ... the short position is about $50 million-ish and pays at a 30% rate, 15 million interest per year, $41,000 per day.

    30% annual divided by 365 days (not proper math but close) is 0.082% per day. $1000 of short MCP would cost about $0.82 per day.

    Hopefully the shorts will get hit with two barrels, paying higher borrowing costs and losing money as the stock rises.

  • votingmachine votingmachine Mar 16, 2015 12:58 PM Flag

    He is a mix. He is highly informed on rare earth facts and the rare earth market and businesses. But he is also highly partisan and not very objective. He loves to say "I told you so", and "I was right back then".

    He is correct in noting that the cerium and lanthanum supplies are higher than market demand. Lanthanum is less oversupplied, but it is a buyers market. I disagree that the low prices there guarantee no success. The neodymium and praseodymium production and market price are really the main determinants of success.

    I've said it before ... I think that if Molycorp manages to stay afloat, then they will ultimately be VERY successful. The economic barrier to entry is in the RE processing side. If Molycorp successfully builds an expensive processor and also has the acquired processing, they have an infrastructure that can be leveraged. Survival puts them in the drivers seat for acquisitions.

    For an example, look at the Lynas separation in space of the mine and processing. Consider the actual low mass amounts that need to get moved from mines to Molycorp processing. It is very feasible for a borderline Mt Pass ore and processing facility (that still makes money) to acquire other mineral sources. MCP currently ships ore internally to Silmet. That Silmet supply could be another ore body.

    If Molycorp survives as a miner and processor, they will gradually acquire the best ore deposits. If the most profitable RE's are not the Mt Pass mix, then other sources will make sense. But the primary question is who will own and operate rare earth processing facilites. Currently, China. If MCP succeeds then Project Phoenix processing moves to near the top of processing facilities. If they are not bankrupt, then they can leverage that $1-2 billion processing facility into a mining and processing empire.

    Lifton is correct in saying that Mt Pass ore is not the best, and Molycorp will produce surplus low value elements from it. But there is value in ownership of processing.

MCP
0.5301-0.0407(-7.13%)May 29 4:01 PMEDT