that proves market maker is soaking up stock or an institution who was cut back on the deal is buying size and it printed EOD. stock is easily easily going to 6x 2015E $200MM revs + $200MM net working cap = $1.4BN / 100MM F/D shares (conservative) = $14, will be $12+ with the new coverage. Using 8x and cash will increase, and 90MM F/D shares you have a $20 stock in a year and $15 now.
stock should lift in this last hour considerably, wouldn't want to be short. BOA must put a $18-$20 target on this in the league of RNG by Goldman, we could be up 50% next week if it comes Monday.
You could argue MSFT will buy EGHT.
what does that mean? I don't get it. there is a little gap around there to fill. I am looking for a $12-$13 handle on EGHT near-term when BOA and the syndicate run the math versus RNG and the EGHT DCF model, this thing can do 50 cents EPS power in 2015 and we have a $20+ stock in a couple years, teens now.
I bet new coverage comes Monday T+10, assume calendar 2015 revenues $200MM x 8 = $1.6BN + $200MM working capital = $1.8BN / 100MM F/D shares = $18 target price, EGHT will be $12-$15 next week or whenever new coverage comes out.
prepare to be steamrolled, see my valuation analysis and expect all sell-side analysts to cut and paste it into their reports, Softbank and more M&A coming, good luck with your short, see you at $15 soon...
go long size, not sure how an insider could buy that size in this quiet period but whatever. in 5-6 weeks, next year will be 2015. Assume $200MM revenues, and slap a 8x multiple on it like RNG with higher growth (no profits) an you get $1.6BN, add $200MM working capital to $1.8BN and / by 100MM diluted shares = $18 target price. It is coming folks, buy size tomorrow as initiations could come Monday or throughout the week. Existing analysts will raise numbers and targets too. Insane entry here, buy all size you can under $10 and load up on the Dec $10 CALLS.
this is a friggin manufacturing company, should trade at 1x sales that's it, that is several $ a share people. low float is a NEGATIVE not a POSITIVE, when Brean dumps look for sub $5
ARCS using a more reasonable 6x multiple as a manufacturing company, on $15MM annualized EBITDA (last Q), is $90MM, less $40MM debt = $50MM equity / 5.5MM shares - $9 stock. That's all she wrote folks. Low float and major seller in BMC and major customer concentration, should merit a discount. 33% = $6 fair value today.
stock is doomed, going to 40x 2014E EPS of $0.50 (optimistic) = $20 + $7/share cash = $27 fair value
EGHT's capex to sakes % is 2%, the return on capital for this model is very high, if they go global, move upstream to larger customers, cross-sell more products to the base, do accretive M&A, and employ indirect channels, revenue and EPS growth will accelerate and the stock will go to $20 in 2014. Mark this post.
NOTE M – RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS
Quadrant Management Inc. and Brean Murray Carret Group, Inc.
Quadrant Management Inc. (“QMI”) is under common control with Brean Murray Carret Group, Inc. (“Brean Murray”). Quadrant indirectly owned 74.0% of the membership interests of Quadrant Metals Technologies LLC (“QMT”) prior to the Acquisitions. Brean Murray is the controlling shareholder of ARC. Brean Murray and QMI are under common control and therefore Brean Murray, QMI, ARC, and QMT are affiliates under common control. Specifically, Brean Murray controls 100% of the ownership interests of QMI, as well as, via certain wholly-owned intermediaries, 61.5% of the shares of ARC.
Pursuant to the original terms of the ARC Advisory Agreement entered into on January 21, 2009, (the “ARC Advisory Agreement”), QMI has provided ARC financial advisory and business consulting services, including restructuring services. In consideration for the restructuring services provided by QMI since November 2008 and for ongoing services, ARC originally agreed to pay QMI the following compensation: (1) an initial cash fee of $250 thousand upon signing the ARC Advisory Agreement; (2) an annual fee of the greater of: (i) $250 thousand; (ii) 20% of any increase in reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization after adjusting for one-time and non-recurring items (“EBITDA”) for the current financial year over preceding year; or (iii) 20% of reported EBITDA for the current financial year; and (3) all reasonable out-of-pocket expenses incurred QMI in performing services under the ARC Advisory Agreement.
The ARC Advisory Agreement technically provides QMI the right to receive 20% of ARC’s EBITDA, even if such EBITDA is derived from the QMT Acquisition and the AFT Acquisition. However, QMI has granted waivers to certain provisions of the ARC Advisory Agreement, (the “Quadrant Waiver”), such that: (1) in calendar year 2012 QMI shall only be paid an annual fee equal to the gr
looks like longs are the ones smoking dope, BreanMurray/QMI are raping you all, getting 20% of all EBITDA out of this company going forward and a huge consulting fee. Generously, if we say ARCW is doing $14MM annualized EBITDA, multiple x 0.80 =$11.2MM, and slap a generous 8x multiple on that to get $89.6MM EV, less $40MM debt = $49.6MM market cap, and you get a stock of sub $10 today. This is an easy short, BM/QMI will hose you all and sell their stock mercilessly.
we'll see VJET will be down $10 more tomorrow, whole sector broken, good luck catching the knife at 10x sales going to 5x
90% downside from here still...this has been a pump and dump
you know the jig is up, look if you assume 50 cents EPS in 2014, and slap a 50x multiple on it, and than add in $7/share in cash, this stock is fairly valued (generously) at $32, I predict another $20 downturn from here, the sell-off will further destroy this bubble baby
no one believes sell-side analysts anymore, they are just puppets for bankers and management to distribute stock from institutions to dimwit retail investors that pay 10x-50x sales for equipment companies with global competition
that's a lame analysts, how accretive is the M&A deal in UK and what else will be acquired? numbers are going up my man, and new coverage coming Monday from 3-4 firms, look for $12 next week