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Nokia Corporation Message Board

vs1234gs 677 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Apr 12, 2001
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  • What matter is where company stand. After SUNE bankruptcy, this company has significant advantage. This company has better product & i think stock will not stay around this level for long.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I was trying to value company different way.
    Here is following what I used.
    1700 physician already prescribing - Let's assume we will have 3000 physician prescribe treat average 3 by end of 2016, 10 by 2017, 15 by end of 2018, 20 by end of 2019 in Chronic Setting.
    So patient count is 9000, 30000,45000, 60000
    Revenue running rate:- $54M, $180M,$270M, $360M
    Gross margin:- 80%

    Company Value:-
    Low end:- 6X at end of 2019 = $2.1B discount 14-15%+/year - 2018 - $1.8B, 2017 = $1.5B, 2016:-$1.2B
    High end:-10x (As growth confirm) = $3.6B discount 20% = $2.9B, $2.3B,$1.9B

    In other word:- at end of year company should worth $1.2B -$1.9B
    All it need to do is prove that growth will continue.
    Company is significant undervalue addressing such large market. Once they prove that they can grow, this company will trade above 25.
    Given 5000 prescription mostly unique patient already written, 50%+ already have refill indicated on prescription, reaching 60K patient in chronic by 2019 is not that hard.

    Expect stock to trade higher from here once ZS 9 approval regardless of label.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    transcripts

    by antoniojr93 10 hours ago

    Buyout Rumor is very true. Question is how management value company v/s how Other big pharma do it. ZSPH buyout is main reason for difference I think.

    Given kind of resources need to launch this drug, selling is much better option.
    I am quite sure offer atleast closer to $40 and that is decent.
    Question is
    1. Are they ready to buy now or wait until ZS9 approval :- Likely big pharma want to wait.
    2. Is Price they offer consider good enough specially if ZS9 label is very good:- I doubt it, This might be reason Company got finance ahead so they create solid base.

    Overall there are lot of challanges but remember 5% patient = $1B in sale in USA only. This is huge market & RLYP will able to sell closer to $500M even with such challanges.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    transcripts

    by antoniojr93 10 hours ago
    vs1234gs vs1234gs 10 hours ago Flag

    it's not just about cash burn. Almost everything they mention not providing any forecast at all. It's like they handicap by something. If they able to provide data in Feb, why can't they provide now after 3 month into launch.

    hope that they being handicap due to some very good news in work. But hard to tell motive behind.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs 11 hours ago Flag

    Yes Amortization always part of Analyst forecast. Else Analyst are mad not correcting when they release script data in Feb.

    Also we should look into total number of script written as trend. 5000 script is good way to look. Reason:- although right now fill rate is not big, once they get their house in order you expect 80-85% of those become paid.

    I am bit concern on Number on script written v/s paid script fulfill mismatch but again management hiding lot of detail, and I can't think they overlook such huge gap. They already mention reject rate is 23% & Majority Medicare. This mean they just need to get house in order and That mismatch will go away. I really concern about their V Connect program but hopefully they taking concrete action there to fix any issues.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Biggest positive:-
    1. Majority Prescription coming multi month
    2. 23% rejection rate is bit better (This area where new launch stuggle specially when majority medicare)
    3. 50% coverage on payer formulatory
    4. DDI related issues are minimum
    5. Launch growth seems going alright.
    6. Majority patient remain Part D & so once on formulary, Less resistant/expense for large number of prescription, this should help improve efficiency as well.
    7. sNDA for DDI

    Biggest Negative:-
    1. Payer delay (Expected but we have no detail on backlog )
    2. VConnect although praised by Management, They seems more defending their strategy. Looking at C Pharma blog, there is clearly some issue there. Hope it's not huge disconnect.
    3. DDI might concern once ZS9 approved as per one answer to question (Depending on Label)
    4. No forward looking statement at all including on Cash burn - Also not clear due to ZS9 or other reason.
    5. sNDA rejected for shelf life & they unlikely follow up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    VKonnect problem

    by vs1234gs 21 hours ago
    vs1234gs vs1234gs 13 hours ago Flag

    Also based on detail, Management don't think it's problem. Hopefully they are right and I am just reading too much from blog.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    VKonnect problem

    by vs1234gs 21 hours ago
    vs1234gs vs1234gs 13 hours ago Flag

    Here is extract. Again why not keep program very similar to normal process specially if physicians are not used with model. Why introduce new process to them.

    The overall response to Veltassa Connect, our hub, has been favorable. A third-party survey found that 61% of physicians surveyed rated it above average as compared to similar industry programs. This response is especially encouraging since our target physicians are not accustomed to prescribing through this type of model. Our own market research found that among physicians with significant experience with Veltassa Connect, 77% were either extremely or very satisfied.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • reading C pharma blog and clear issue discuss with VKonnect there. After 4Q 2015 call, i always wonder why company spending on VKonnect while making brand new process for doctor office & patient to follow. Simple fax Prescription & Patient Info is good enough to fill it.

    In-fact there is fight going between VKonnect too slow v/s VKonnect not receiving form properly filled. My point is why you need to have special form fill out. Simple fax should good enough. Why push Doctor office to do extra work. Simple fax of Rx, Free sample coupon & patient info will give enough detail to fill it.

    Now Reps are crying about it & likely VK employee as well. Hope Orwin look into alternative fast enough & simplify work for Doctor Office. Adding multiple Speciality pharma who can take it directly also help reduce cost significantly.

    Controlling everything is recipe for failure. Let people do their job. Use current process to your advantage where you remove confusion and save money not spending behind creating brand new process.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CC Q&A so far

    by vs1234gs May 4, 2016 5:34 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 4, 2016 10:11 PM Flag

    My exact point you describe here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why not release Script number

    by vs1234gs May 4, 2016 4:29 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 4, 2016 9:57 PM Flag

    So if you don't care why you spending time on that. I only close position I started today. I am not closing position but I try to build strategy that can reduce cost basis while keeping long term scope. Sharing it, I am sure some people care here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs May 4, 2016 9:10 PM Flag

    It's about 60% way before Q&A start.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New release & CC theme

    by vs1234gs May 4, 2016 7:37 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 4, 2016 8:03 PM Flag

    Anyone here feel same way as I am on forward looking statement. Never seen call where they would say that they won't comment as at this point they don't want to make any forward looking statement.

    Why forward looking statement is problem when you already disclosure around it to protect you.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This is company early stage & spending is red flag. this is stupid reason for stock drop.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Share as little as possible and no forward projection. Something sound fishy there. Last call they are much more open than now. Only discuss fact from past.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • listen part of CC again.
    This give some good picture to April script. I am not going to guess much for now since hard to tell how many they send free sample and how many not & how many are repeat is hard to determine.

    But based on this My expectation of about 3200 total is likely get beaten.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why no guidance?

    by raciere May 4, 2016 6:47 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 4, 2016 7:21 PM Flag

    Yes this is one way to become leading analyst. She would upgrade this stock overnight after buyout announce & will claim 200 point move as well.................

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why no guidance?

    by raciere May 4, 2016 6:47 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 4, 2016 7:10 PM Flag

    Mizuho got taste of body language.

    May be tomorrow she will come back & upgrade saying she notice body language changed.

    On another question related to ZS9 on CC, They answer streight, We spaculating 2 1/2 year on ZS9 label, we will find out in 2 week. Why don't you wait. See body language there as well!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CC Q&A so far

    by vs1234gs May 4, 2016 5:34 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 4, 2016 6:24 PM Flag

    no clear answer on cash burn rate.
    No direct question on rumor
    & Question why not convertible Debt offering & answer : Debt financing is not convertible as it keep strategic option open. There is also no revenue/ royalty income that tied with financing and so term of loan is very competitive to market .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CC Q&A so far

    by vs1234gs May 4, 2016 5:34 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 4, 2016 6:10 PM Flag

    They did comment on ZS9 various scenario & mention they have plan in place to handle it. They also mention competitive advantage against ZS9 regardless of label.

    I am not reading much other than in term of

    Mizuho Body language:- Their body language while answering was fantastic. If AZN listening & trying to figure out body language, they would offended by that comment !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    I am sure Mizuho offended, might change rating saying body language seems change now & look very positive !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

NOK
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