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Microsoft Corporation Message Board

vs1234gs 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 22, 2014 1:32 PM Member since: Apr 12, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Back to a buck

    by bobobaginz Dec 22, 2014 10:24 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Dec 22, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    I love short seller. Reason I can keep adding more stock with lower price bringing down my average (Already at $1.5)

    Cap rate at $186M, Sale rate at $100M/Year likely double by end of 2015 I think bottom is either already build or very close. Only risk is Management hiding about balance sheet (Debt payment due in near future) but that is small risk worth taking specially since management never seen in hurry with secondary equity sale).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • $200M/Year run rate needed to make small profit. Given slow script growth, we likely reach there by end of 2015. which can bring this back to 3-4 dollar range. Sky is limit for this stock if Reduce IT show even small benefit with Heart attack risk. Given successful smaller scale Japanese trial result few years back, there is only small risk on Reduce IT actually.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 1. Script Growth Continue & actually bit faster than before despite Lovaza generic. This indicate more doctor see value based on what they seeing. (Currently $100M/Year run rate and increasing - $200M would be breakeven point. ($160M Net is break even point as per management) )
    2. Cash burn rate reducing and might close to break even around end of 2015.
    3. Cash on hand is not great but enough to last atleast 18-24 month, many more if cash burn rate go lower with sale raise(unless there is significant debt payment coming which management hiding)
    4. Big Pharma not going to wait for Reduce IT trial result if sale continue to raise. They will pay small premium to buyout now then wait specially if sale continue raise even with generic Lovaza.

    Risk is mainly with Balance Sheet and could go to 0 if Management hiding something and goes out of control but upside is huge given $100M/Year drug already with Many patents not expire until 2030, Lot of new indication possible with various lapid lowering capability already proven.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    12/12/2014 SCRIPTS

    by Dec 19, 2014 8:29 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Dec 19, 2014 1:47 PM Flag

    Thanks Key. I am still suprise that this stock not moving much. I have significant profit from other stock this year and need to make some sale on AMRN stock. I can't press send button for order as I am not sure if I able to buy it back later as same price.

  • I think this recent medical analysis is very good. AMRN is no longer just play based on Triglyceride and Given FDA stand, AMRN can reap more benefit from other benefit in short term. I also think Reduce-IT going to successful. If it happen, sky is limit for AMRN. Given lot of patent and more patent as they study various benefit, it unlikely that someone ablue to successful chanllanging those. All you need is one patent consider valid.

    If it go above my average, I will sell about 10% just so I can buy even more if it ever go down. I am quite heavy with AMRN nearly 18% of portfollio now. But I hardly have any doubt for company's success in year or two.

    Please note script is at around 10K now and I think by end of March it should be somewhere 13K.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    11/14/14 SCRIPTS

    by Nov 21, 2014 10:57 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Nov 24, 2014 2:00 PM Flag

    Recent medical analysis going to help increase script count more quickly I think. AMRN should try to get those finding in label as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • See below. This likely mean, big pharma soon look to buy AMRN. Current Company Operation is very efficient and so they likely see little to no risk (Specially they can easily increase sale on current indication) I think AMRN is undervalue by at least 6-7 dollar.
    Confirmed continued commitment to completing the ongoing REDUCE-IT cardiovascular outcomes study after a substantial scientific and business focused review, based on which Amarin believes that REDUCE-IT is well positioned to succeed and that continuation is in the best interest of improved patient care and Amarin's shareholders

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • My average price below $1.8 now. I think we will get above it in 2-3 month assuming we have continue slow steady growth with scripts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    10/17/14 SCRIPTS

    by Oct 24, 2014 8:28 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Oct 24, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    This is very good news. Specially since this was holiday week in many state. I am very hopeful that we will see good upward swing next week.

    Hope management hold on for Share dilution for better time as once it reach 14-15K price, Share price will raise to $3 (Burn rate also drop significantly)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Symphony 10/17

    by gravelroad78 Oct 24, 2014 10:57 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Oct 24, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    This mean, Next week we will close to 16K. I think Columbus Day cut script by 5-6% at least specially for illness where there is no urgency. I won't surprise if it get over 16K+. Also people discussing about profit/loss based on number of Reps, ARNA take % of net revenue and not Net Profit So it's Eisai's problem to solve as long as there is decent growth on scripts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I believe, Script Growth will accelate with more Ad & More rep & Additional data/indication.
    But let's assume growth is only 1.5% week or week which i think very easy for next 2 year.
    After 52:- Running Rate 340M+
    After 2 year Running Rate More than 745M+.

    Even with 1% this number goes to near 450M in 2 year.
    In other word ARNA getting 150M - 250M in 2 year even if we have very small growth. And Making very good profit and PE is less than 10 at this price.

    Think before you short and Long should also consider to buy more if you can.

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Oct 8, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    You miss how our digestion system works. Medicine normally designs to digest easily. Not always true for any food you take. This is very important difference.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • obesity drugs market mostly destroyed with some previous drug side effect. Doc does not trust new class of drug from OREX, ARNA, VVUS. But FDA already collected lot of data on safety before approval. They still enroll on safety monitoring and so with time they getting more safety data.

    This will result into additional data available very near future and more than likely positive side given precausion before approval.

    What that mean ? Doctors eventually start prescribe as they understand risk benefit profile is quite favorable. This might take another year or two but eventually this drugs will sale in billions.

    If you are risk taker like me who ready to wait to get benefit, at least one of this stock will sale for 20's in 2-3 year. Invest on all and wait for two year. Average down when it go down and sale some when it go above your average so you can buy again if go down & increase. if go up you still make some money on sale. ( don't sale everything, I would sale only 5-10% of holding each time it raise $1 after go above average and stop when your investment is near 0 for remaining holding)

    I have trackrecord to benefit from AVNR, AMLN, CADX,HGSI,HZNP,ITMN,TELK and many more.

    Another stock I like is AMRN it likely goes to 5+ based on current indication for tg only very soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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