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Optimer Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (OPTR) Message Board

vs1234gs 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 28, 2014 3:34 PM Member since: Apr 12, 2001
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  • Reply to

    12/19/2014 SCRIPTS

    by keystone.investments Dec 26, 2014 8:45 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Dec 28, 2014 3:34 PM Flag

    This is not small achievement. They have very limited reps and still have constant growth.
    This is clear indication that it will running around 20K+ in 1 year assuming constant growth. My exprience says growth rate will increase as few doctor start prescribing exclusively. Even 20K is very significant as this make it near break even with many years patent.

    Assuming same growth continue, I would not surprise if big pharma offer $5 or even higher in next few month. Right now they waiting for Generic Lovaza impact stabilize. AstraZeneca likely candidate (One point it was close to buy Amerin and deal fall apart due to NCE delay. It already have EPANOVA approved but not launch since May 2014. (Big surprise given it paid $500M+ just for that)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    12/19/2014 SCRIPTS

    by keystone.investments Dec 26, 2014 8:45 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Dec 28, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    Script growing same rate and it more than double in 1 year. With Lovaza generic this is not small achievement. Most insurance company keep lower copay for generic.
    This indicate doctor see value compare Lovaza.

  • Reply to

    Back to a buck

    by bobobaginz Dec 22, 2014 10:24 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Dec 22, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    I love short seller. Reason I can keep adding more stock with lower price bringing down my average (Already at $1.5)

    Cap rate at $186M, Sale rate at $100M/Year likely double by end of 2015 I think bottom is either already build or very close. Only risk is Management hiding about balance sheet (Debt payment due in near future) but that is small risk worth taking specially since management never seen in hurry with secondary equity sale).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • $200M/Year run rate needed to make small profit. Given slow script growth, we likely reach there by end of 2015. which can bring this back to 3-4 dollar range. Sky is limit for this stock if Reduce IT show even small benefit with Heart attack risk. Given successful smaller scale Japanese trial result few years back, there is only small risk on Reduce IT actually.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 1. Script Growth Continue & actually bit faster than before despite Lovaza generic. This indicate more doctor see value based on what they seeing. (Currently $100M/Year run rate and increasing - $200M would be breakeven point. ($160M Net is break even point as per management) )
    2. Cash burn rate reducing and might close to break even around end of 2015.
    3. Cash on hand is not great but enough to last atleast 18-24 month, many more if cash burn rate go lower with sale raise(unless there is significant debt payment coming which management hiding)
    4. Big Pharma not going to wait for Reduce IT trial result if sale continue to raise. They will pay small premium to buyout now then wait specially if sale continue raise even with generic Lovaza.

    Risk is mainly with Balance Sheet and could go to 0 if Management hiding something and goes out of control but upside is huge given $100M/Year drug already with Many patents not expire until 2030, Lot of new indication possible with various lapid lowering capability already proven.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    12/12/2014 SCRIPTS

    by keystone.investments Dec 19, 2014 8:29 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Dec 19, 2014 1:47 PM Flag

    Thanks Key. I am still suprise that this stock not moving much. I have significant profit from other stock this year and need to make some sale on AMRN stock. I can't press send button for order as I am not sure if I able to buy it back later as same price.

  • I think this recent medical analysis is very good. AMRN is no longer just play based on Triglyceride and Given FDA stand, AMRN can reap more benefit from other benefit in short term. I also think Reduce-IT going to successful. If it happen, sky is limit for AMRN. Given lot of patent and more patent as they study various benefit, it unlikely that someone ablue to successful chanllanging those. All you need is one patent consider valid.

    If it go above my average, I will sell about 10% just so I can buy even more if it ever go down. I am quite heavy with AMRN nearly 18% of portfollio now. But I hardly have any doubt for company's success in year or two.

    Please note script is at around 10K now and I think by end of March it should be somewhere 13K.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    11/14/14 SCRIPTS

    by keystone.investments Nov 21, 2014 10:57 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Nov 24, 2014 2:00 PM Flag

    Recent medical analysis going to help increase script count more quickly I think. AMRN should try to get those finding in label as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • See below. This likely mean, big pharma soon look to buy AMRN. Current Company Operation is very efficient and so they likely see little to no risk (Specially they can easily increase sale on current indication) I think AMRN is undervalue by at least 6-7 dollar.
    Confirmed continued commitment to completing the ongoing REDUCE-IT cardiovascular outcomes study after a substantial scientific and business focused review, based on which Amarin believes that REDUCE-IT is well positioned to succeed and that continuation is in the best interest of improved patient care and Amarin's shareholders

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • My average price below $1.8 now. I think we will get above it in 2-3 month assuming we have continue slow steady growth with scripts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

OPTR
12.780.0000(0.00%)Oct 23 4:00 PMEDT

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