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Optimer Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

vs1234gs 286 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 29 minutes ago Member since: Apr 12, 2001
  • I don't like to short share but Google is becoming increasingly tempting. So started this.

    Very good premium. I think 800 is more like ceiling based on recent valuation adjustment.
    I am getting almost 1% premium + 8% safety net. We will see where this end.

    If Excercise, I will start selling Put to collect premium. Might not make big $ but premium likely 1-2% / week + keep my average down ( -$812 is average if both 800 and 810 call excercise.)

    If not go above 800, I will get lot of profit from this nake call.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Don't risk everything on big player manipulation. Based on news stream, they secretly exiting.

    Latest way to inject more air in bubble, do individual business valuation.
    Now take example:-

    Apple provide breakdown by category. Service Business is 6+ billion and growing 30%, Google Service business where all profit come likely around 16B-17B and likely growth around 20%

    So by defination, Apple Service Business should value 1.5 time google, If Google 90% value come from service (ad) business, then Google has $420B (Discounting cash) come from that business. now multiple 150% = about $625B+
    now divide by 3 = $210B

    So Apple has $530B value - $100B+ cache = $430 B - $210B service = $220B
    Other product also growing 30%+ in latest quater due to Watch and sell at $6B = $100B
    Mac Sure worth $100B+ (Making $8B+ Profit)
    IPAD worth $40B (Making atleast $6B+ profit - likley stabilize very soon as people love product still)
    So biggest profitable IPhone Business worth -$20B.

    Now this is what Analyst selling for google will say indivisual business worth $600B. Beware and Be Smart. Market Valuation can drop this company 20-30% (Remember KMI who has solid business and hardly any impact due to OIL for near term yet people put much lower valuation then they offer just few month ago)
    And there is no much up side left at this valuation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Credit Suisse Analyst :

    by notsoobviousman1 Jan 31, 2016 12:57 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jan 31, 2016 1:11 PM Flag

    I think 45K is well known fact for almost 1 year now. MRK is not stupid to start Price war where it can't win.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Revenue per employee

    by kalkhose Jan 31, 2016 12:26 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jan 31, 2016 1:10 PM Flag

    First Mass AG showing up on CNBC prove her motive. She likely getting Money from Big Market Player and trying to make impact of her statements as much as possible on stock price.

    Challenging GILD for pricing is almost like challenging Open Market using some law. Mass has lot to loose if it ever succeed in that attempt. Most Business will prefer to leave Mass then.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reason:- It can't win Price war when only 2.5-3M patient left. GILD unlikely let go market share easily and given better profile and 8 week treatment option, GILD can easily win in Price war and MRK actually not able to make good profit. It instead work on exclusive deals where possible with little discount over other to make 3-4B year and take respectable 15% Market share. same apply to ABBV.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sold VRTX bought Rlyp

    by growth12345 Jan 28, 2016 12:40 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jan 31, 2016 12:33 PM Flag

    Average up is successful until you learn one day bomb wipeout everything. My strategy is Average Down including slow selling when price start going up. This way I can buy back when go down.

    I have VRTX with average down into $40 3 years ago. Company start going up and I keep selling and keep limited share at $130. Now price go down I able to use that cash to buy more then sell on single day for 8% profit and keep 1/8 of share which has same average as my other ($40 discounting 1day profit)

    Now if you think this is disaster strategy than everyone know how much you know about investing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • First fact:- HCV market likely grow 10-15% /year for next 5-6 year follow by 10% drop followup years ( This depend on pricing power in developing countries & price increase in USA as market Sink)
    At end of 10 year following population treated already - all most all USA population, 80% of Europe, japan, s korea,60% of china, 40% rest of world.
    Only small company try to enter already competitive market (Reason:- There is not market left USA /Europe /Japan /China)

    GILD scenario:-
    Current revenue $20B/Year
    Drop by 10%/year (worst case scenario):-
    10 year average :- Around $10B (This is not peak but average) x 8 Multipler.:- Market value 80B + HIV & Other drug value = $140B

    Drop By 5% year or less ( more likely) :-
    10 year average :- Around $12-$15B -Market Value :-100-120B + 60-80B Other drugs = $180-$200B.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Anyone has any clue?

    Answer is Overseas.
    In USA there were 3-4Million patient, About 300K+ /year getting treat since 2013 end, In otherword, nearly 15-20% already treated.
    Most remaining are not treatment naive and not at advance stage, Govt/ Insurance company slowly approving treatment for those.
    All those will prefer possible 8 week treatment with less side effect. So Harvoni is big winner there. Price of drug only bring about 10% drop in revenue so instead $15B/year GILD will make $13.5B/year in USA.

    In Contrast, Oversteas there are 170M People. So in other word $3000 average price = USA $60000 treatment. Again GILD is ahead to get all Genotype trial and approval, Has superior Profile and shorter duration and they will grab majority of market there as well.

    So GILD will generate about $15B average on HCV drug for next 10 year. This make GILD very cheap to multiple.
    MRK, ABBV will generate about $4B each.

    Total market already $21B+ and overseas yet to see meaningful revenue. Insurance company not going to worry about approval as long as it paying about same amount as Last year for next 10 year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Where GILD and Other going to sell for 5K or less. But still print billions. that is market matter and GILD will continue do better there.
    Also there is no pricewar in USA, MRK not going to risk for only 2.5-3 M remaining patient. They can't win with price war as they don't have profile advantage and once all patient log clear, there is only 17K /year population where you will need to raise prices not drop.

    GILD has upper hand on everywhere and it able to maintain unless there is drug that has safer profile and work faster.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Jim Cramer has a sell on Gilead

    by majorjohnny1 Jan 29, 2016 5:53 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jan 29, 2016 4:44 PM Flag

    Is it with Big high tone or small. This will determine how higher GILD will go.
    If very loud, we might back to 95's in week.
    If loud, we might back to 90's in week
    if with fear, we might stuck at 85(Unlikely)

    Good thing is when Jim Cramer recommend, reverse is more likely.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 1. USA Market becoming smaller every day very quickly. Total Patient treated :- 700K - Remaining:- $3M+.
    2. At this rate USA market not big enough soon. that mean no company want price war. They instead workout where they win comfortable market share. They unlikely challenge GILD as Harvoni has much better profile and Price war certainly mean even lower market share for rest (Not able to afford marketing cost).
    3. GILD smart to build exclusive deals by giving steep discount. This make viable market share gain unlikely atleast for another 2 year. and only way MRK can pay bill and make good money on investment is keep discount very low.
    4. MRK pricing is Politically driven, If they want Price war, they would list this 45K. They didn't and that key here.

  • 1. First MRK explain price point as current net price in industry.
    2. Nearly 10% of HCV population treated already. only 17K new patient added and number go lower as people get treated. Given lower prices, next 5 year when MRK might see net benefit for excessive discount, 30% more already treated.
    3. Given drug profile difference, Monitoring cost difference, GILD 8 week advantage for milder patient, MRK never going to win Price War in one direction. In other word they will get at best 25% market share. GILD will command majority for next 5 year at least.
    4. Most company exiting new Hep C trial (look at VRTX) some small pharma still trying. This mean not much new competition coming.
    5. In Next 10 year market will become much smaller and so price hike is more likely.
    6. Biggest market is rest of world ( 150 M vs 3M ) GILD will continue lead that market and MRK not looking to bring price war where Margin is already slim.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Jan 29, 2016 2:11 PM Flag

    I am sure AG got cut from Big market Player. How to create negative environment so they can bring it further lower.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Key question is how much discount it will offer over 54K. I doubt if much. Real world cost for Harvoni is

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • You guys need to read Wall street article back in Feb 2015. GILD was already discounting prices by 46% back then.

    so net revenue GILD generating is $50K only.

    Main reason MRK price only $54K is to avoid red tape from politics. This is not material news even. MRK is not looking to Price War as Market for two reason. 1. It is not heavy depend on this drug 2. it know GILD has much better profile and price war might mean it never able to recover it's investment.

    Market is big, as price lower, number of patient will increase. At current earning, GILD only need 5 year to earn enough money and return 100% to share holder + has healthy pipeline.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Jan 29, 2016 1:41 PM Flag

    There is likely limited price difference even if GILD not lower price ( We all know it discount )

    When doctor demand safer drug, Insurance company can't resist much. Else all new drug never able to sale like they can.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    started new Position

    by vs1234gs Jan 29, 2016 12:15 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jan 29, 2016 12:17 PM Flag

    Also MRK unlikely to start price war. Reason they put lower tag because current politics about drug pricing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • this is temporary effect. market is big enough to have more player and company was already under pressure to drop price and recent price drop from 120 is due to that reason.

    Key here is Product has better profile and people will prefer better product and cheaper product when it's about health. Long run GILD will remain winner as Price will come down to $60K or less but that will not impact much on revenue.

    This is good news for many waiting for drug actually and So GILD might not able to get 80K but will get lot more patient.

    Immediate catalyst which likely happen in week is GILD drop price as well. This will confirm that company not going to risk market share over price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sold VRTX bought Rlyp

    by growth12345 Jan 28, 2016 12:40 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jan 29, 2016 10:35 AM Flag

    you need to explain why you think it will drop 30% just because it drop 30% in last 2-3 week.

    I didn't predict price whether it will go up or down. You are predicting here. Infact when i start investing, I plan on how to average down if it go down. Mean not all in when buy.

    With regard to Drug product. FDA don't approve product if it not working. In Market place whether it success or fail determine later. If it success this stock will reach 100 without buyout. If fail it might go down to 0.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Jan 28, 2016 5:14 PM Flag

    This is what politician do. Keep repeating what is already known. Price Risk already accounted and Company change way they operate. Clinton just using Big Famous Valeant name to make highlight.

    This is old news and all lawmaker will keep using it. market will get used to with that. Overall Biotech might have bigger impact but this company already priced in and so impact is small.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy