Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Optimer Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

vs1234gs 672 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Apr 12, 2001
  • Reply to

    Thanks for the trading shares on that bear raid

    by glenntrader Apr 8, 2016 12:33 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Apr 8, 2016 12:54 PM Flag

    I actually sold 10% at 24.58 , Brought back 11.5% at 22.5. Good profit & more share that will help increase my profit if buyout happen, And in case not happen, i can count my average lower (Assuming no profit).

    First attempt work thanks to bear raid.

    This is only possible if you have short term gain and don't expect to convert into long term.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short covered exhausted

    by robmengnny Apr 7, 2016 3:23 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Apr 8, 2016 11:56 AM Flag

    Very bad assumption to short but this will help keep price below is good. So I will thank you.
    I have sold 10% at 24.5 and now buying back 11.5%. increase of 1.5% of share.

    (Good thing is I just started position in Jan so I able to trade. No Long term profit issue here).

    Will keep doing as long as trade range remain like this.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    starting position

    by vs1234gs Apr 8, 2016 8:27 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Apr 8, 2016 8:54 AM Flag

    Biggest value is if they agree to Buyout. For Example HZNP can give better value because they can market it with their existing staff and so they make lot more cash flow.

    And yes Patent Lawsuit is great value as well.
    I will start with small but sure buy more if stock go back to 15.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • HZNP still hungry I think in pain medicine (They can increase profit by reducing cost easily). New Activist sure put lot more pressure for deal.

    I was hopeless with current management but this is big news.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    management said will need +$500mil to market

    by trumpsuxs Apr 8, 2016 7:42 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Apr 8, 2016 8:08 AM Flag

    this include 300M they already have in bank. So if launch go as plan this stock will trade 50 without buyout.

    Even at this price, this stock way undervalue if it able to sale $1B+ regardless how much more money it need to spend. If it even prove that sell going to $1B+ direction, stock will trade with $3.5-$4B market value.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Apr 8, 2016 8:03 AM Flag

    Yes and so I am going to limit to 20% of position. (Only try twice if both fail, not selling anymore)
    I will lose significant additional gain on those 20% but I am making significant profit at this level.

    Will post how this approach workout (After selling, I normally don't buy back until stock go below my average price so this is first time experiment.)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I'm out

    by oil_philter Apr 7, 2016 4:01 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Apr 7, 2016 11:50 PM Flag

    Right decision.
    I also close my long puts & short Call that I started yesterday for good profit. (I only done it as I don't see this stock price keep raising given how company delivering Model S & X. & want to take advantage of retail fool. Got rewarded very next day. Infact only position I am left is short put spread (257.5 - 255 expire tomorrow & so my best interest is close above 257.5 now) this was hedge against my long put (So I don't loss premium

    Company's decision lately are not inline for long term business model but how to pump stock price & crowd fund.
    1. They don't need to announce Model 3 15 month ahead + likely expected delay but they choose to do that even when competitor start taking TSLA very seriously.
    2. All Feature highlight they putting on Model 3 unlikely standard with 35K, but regardless they used to get more people signup - May be intent is crowd funding but this is not start up & it still want to depend on crowd funding that there is something seriously wrong.)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Apr 7, 2016 11:36 PM Flag

    Please comment your view point on article.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Apr 7, 2016 11:33 PM Flag

    I am planing to sell and buy back to increase even more share without risking. As I indicated this is my largest holding now. If I sell 10% on every spike and back back when it go down & invest price difference in stock, I would able to increase more share. If it does not go down, I will lost any gain on 10% but hey I make thousands on that sale still.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • All those people calling sell on rumor not reading Reuter article.
    1. according to several people familiar with the matter, This raise rumor being truth - 90%. Most has 1 source. Also mean advance stage and this is leak by intent and likely has blessing from all parties. (They don't want to look like overpaid premium- Wall street game).
    2. Relypsa is working with investment bank Centerview Partners Holdings LLC to review offers:- Mean multiple offers that seen acceptable and competitive.
    3. Interest since ZSPH buyout mean Multiple round of negotiation already done to reach more acceptable offer stage. This also mean it's not going cheap.
    4. Both party decline to comment mean, Rumor to continue much longer.
    5. Unlike some of its biotech peers, Relypsa has strong finances, with nearly $300 million of cash and near-term investments as of September. :- This is yet another indicator that this is not going cheap.

    Article also written with some negative side by intent. I am not overlooking but I also think it's intent to keep price in check.
    1. The sources said they expect ZS-9 to outperform Veltessa over time. ( This can change as typo/misunderstanding, flip could create another $10 raise as well, not saying that they will change it but I highly doubt Sources would say ZS-9 to outperform....)
    2. The discussions are in their early stages and may not lead to a sale :- (Again this is to keep stock price in check , Everything else point advance stage talk & multiple offers from multiple company....)

    Overall article is written with significant confidence. I have seen many article from Reuter on rumor and this would come at top on confidence.

    Still Article from WSJ or NY Times is more reliable and if that happen, buyout price sure in 70's.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Can someon help please?

    by stock_lurker Apr 7, 2016 11:01 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Apr 7, 2016 11:06 PM Flag

    Man, you are into number. Don't blame you. I got into as well. it all depend on what doctor think necessary.
    Most put 10% of 2-3M which is $2B-$3B if some think 20% need prescription drug, it's easily $6B.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Where do we go from here?

    by timeout2575 Apr 7, 2016 8:52 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Apr 7, 2016 11:02 PM Flag

    I think anything above 40 is workable. But I like stifel's comment and it's very true. Not many company out there and if there is multiple bid as sources saying, this can go 60-70 range very easily. All big pharma need to fill gap on their patent expiring drug. They also sitting on cash which not generating much return.

    Thanks to Stupid bind Short, I able to average down to 15 (Started at 20).

    Another point, Reuter pointing multiple sources. Normal buyout story based on single source. Whole story written such way that it seems done deal. If tomorrow it raise to 35, we will get 60+ for sure.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Where do we go from here?

    by timeout2575 Apr 7, 2016 8:52 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Apr 7, 2016 10:46 PM Flag

    Relypsa declined to comment. Centerview did not respond to a request for comment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Where do we go from here?

    by timeout2575 Apr 7, 2016 8:52 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Apr 7, 2016 10:38 PM Flag

    Here is Stifel's comment. His view on ZS investment banking representative Very interesting as well. This can triple from here in best case scenario. (I personally think very likely)
    Having said this, Stifel estimates a takeout price could stand around $75 per share. However, “a price point here will be largely influenced by the competitiveness of the process – and we’re inclined to believe there’s ample demand here given the number of prior suitors known to have engaged in procedural discussions with investment banking representatives during the ZS Pharma M&A process.”

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    How does one price a buyout of RLYP?

    by glenntrader Apr 7, 2016 5:35 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Apr 7, 2016 6:20 PM Flag

    your lower expectation is good. who know you might pleasantly surprise when wake up some day.

    Again valuation depend on lot of complex matter and so no one here know what is true value. Everyone has different opinion but I am sure Executive at Pharma know better.

    Also such low valuation is due to Short bet against this stock & Biotech market when launch happen.
    Short interest keep raising significantly with launch. This is normal with any biotech as launch is not easy anymore.

    What cause this stock to go so low is along with Short, People exiting Biotech and so it has no support from long.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    How does one price a buyout of RLYP?

    by glenntrader Apr 7, 2016 5:35 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Apr 7, 2016 6:07 PM Flag

    ZSPH do not have any other late stage. I was not following stock only research after I start investing in RLYP around 20. So correct me if I am wrong. But my point about ZSPH buyout is not enough data to pay such premium. It got $2.7B on assumption, 70% chance of approval & $1B peak sale. Now here you have product in market, doing well in initial launch & $1B peak sale if ZS9 approve, $2B if ZS9 not approve for Chronic setting
    (Unlike other I think ZS9 will get approval for acute setting as it has solid data but that market is not big, may be $250M and $500M max. if AZN push price way higher than Veltassa. I have pretty much doubt that long term data will show less than 15% side effect on Hypertension and Edema and so chance of approval 30-40% and even after approval, it's not going to sell well in chronic setting due to limitation.)

    And Market does not need to wait for ZS9 approval to value RLYP. You are wrong there. ZS9 long term safety data yet to release (it should have been release by now ( More than 6 month since last data and May 26th date is so close that they don't have time to submit now) which is weird as well.

    Infact any buyer want to buy before ZS9 long term safety data as they know trend normally don't change for Hypertension and Edema and after news they need to pay signficant more premium.

    Hope you are not short here. it's not good idea. There are many overvalue stock out there.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    How does one price a buyout of RLYP?

    by glenntrader Apr 7, 2016 5:35 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Apr 7, 2016 5:46 PM Flag

    Do your math yourself. How does ZSPH buyout happen. Not approved yet, no long term trial, no FDA submission, no clarity on long term safety profile....... Single product as well!!!!!!!!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Finally Happening!

    by rspiland3 Apr 7, 2016 1:54 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Apr 7, 2016 5:44 PM Flag

    ZS has no long term data and approval or launch history. This one has and running way better than even heart failure drug launch by Novartis. Analyst expecting 4-5B revenue for that heart failure drug. So ZS price not really matter.

    I think any price above 50, you can't argue undervalued specially how much company need to keep standalone before it can bring value to investor. Company should have raise money when market was right but it didn't as it wasn't planning to go stand alone anyway. If they done it, this stock would never traded below 25 even.

    I actually thanks company here as I like to invest in company that is at discount even there might be unknown risk. This is now my no.1 position (As long as it is above 24). I brought right after drug interaction trial result- 20 to all way 12. Average is 15 only.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Finally Happening!

    by rspiland3 Apr 7, 2016 1:54 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Apr 7, 2016 4:44 PM Flag

    I believe company likely have 40-50 offer and they likely refuse it. Remember they have large insider buy 3/15. Reason likely company offering 40-50 try to play hard ball by not extending offer after deadline. This is only reason insider able to buy or sell on 3/15 and they didn't wait and 4 different insider buy significant.

    Now company likely got 60+ and so it considering seriously. Buyout at 70 is more likely. Remember it all depend on how insider see it but I do believe there is signficant value here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CONTACTED CEO AND HE DENIES RUMOR

    by trumpsuxs Apr 7, 2016 4:17 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Apr 7, 2016 4:19 PM Flag

    I am start feeling you actually covering!!!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy