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Optimer Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

vs1234gs 873 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 24, 2016 5:21 PM Member since: Apr 12, 2001
  • Reply to

    Recap

    by djake913 May 25, 2016 3:34 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 25, 2016 5:23 PM Flag

    1 once bag of chips daily!!!!!! That must be healthy for BP patient. If you have high blood pressure, doctor recommend minimum possible salt in diet. Number of study show how little salt effect health for CKD. I don't think real doctor will ignore that fact.

    With regard to binding, CKD patient got one main problem, it can't remove excess minerals in efficient way. So if it remove more than potassium in small amount, it's much bigger drug. With more trial, you able to identify various doses that help most of CKD patient. Any help is welcome there.

    Yes you have to make sure no Hypo.... condition happen but simple blood monitoring & dose adjustment you can resolve it. Long term safety data indicate it's safe to take as well.

    At least it not replacing like ZS9 so kidney has to work as hard as before still. (Our body not absorb Ca as well as other mineral.)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    RLYP supplemental NDA

    by adam_furinestain May 25, 2016 4:19 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 25, 2016 5:16 PM Flag

    Company doing something right at least. I think if company run properly & solve any real problem with Launch like VK negativity, Cut unnessasary spending, I think it will do much better in longer run regardless how good ZSalt label is.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs May 25, 2016 4:36 PM Flag

    Good side of them being right, Their ODD of success getting worst every time they turn out right.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 1. All short thought it's easy short & jump into ship. Too bad for all those. Stock after Vote, crash & recover faster than ever I saw. I thought I will end up with bunch of stock but instead all my short put expired. Help me make few thousands dollar actually.
    2. FDA delay decision which may mean nothing, Stock jump 25% (like it got approval) Short again burn. I again make small profit here with my short put. Too bad I feel too risky to go all in there.

    RLYP short interest getting same level and have too much expectation on Stock Crash. Although Given limited real buyer, If there are open order to sell big lots, this stock can crash any moment but I expect same race to cover after that.

    Let's hope for best. ZS9 likely result net positive for stock as overhang get removed. Focus goes back to buyout and launch.

    Hope for best & Prepared for Worst. Good luck to all Longs here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Kayexalate label related Sodium

    by vs1234gs May 25, 2016 1:32 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 25, 2016 2:02 PM Flag

    No I am not. But this is what MS is playing with us and I want to warn about it. I warn same yesterday. Although label likely mean bad for ZS9 (Any reference to Sodium effect & I consider V as winner), Short will paint like it's solid label & small issue with sodium since its not BB.

    Also I can't ignore short interest such high. I am still very bullish but same time prepared for temporary crash.

    I am ready to double down. In-fact, I sold some stock I recently brought and in solid green like AERI, RGLS, RDUS. So I have cash in hand in case this crash.

    Expect volatility at extreme level as lot of people & Big pharma wait for tomorrow.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vs1234gs by vs1234gs May 25, 2016 1:54 PM Flag

    Any up or down effect from ZS9 label likely temporary.

    If it go up, lot of people ready to sell (Because they miss last buyout rumor)
    If it go down, Lot of Short going to cover, They do know market is large enough for 2, while ZS9 might not get label warning, V will build safer image and so Market is big enough for both (Also DDI likely move outside BB with shorter period).

    I have tighten my seat belt and ready to play whatever come my way. I see huge opturnity given important people are giving to ZS9 label.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It's actually not bad at all. So this is main reason some thing ZS9 superior to other.

    Now in real practice, I always hear, They don't want to use in practice because of Sodium Intake. More I think, More I agree we won't have BB for Sodium. I do expect Kayexalate label update with ZS9 approval. Reason both increase sodium and ZS9 data clearly indicate increase in Hypertension & increase in Edema. FDA unlikely ignore that and instead choose to update other similar Sodium therapy same way.

    Now if Stock price crash below 10, I decided to double down for sure. I think stock will recover rather quickly because this is just side effect of MS upgrade.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This put my open position to 80.
    Now if it expire, my average go down further. If $19 call exercise, I make good profit there. If $14 Put exercise, my average again go down.

    Overall, I remain comfortable with both downside and upside risk. I am fully loaded but I able to keep my average lower using options.

    Here is what I think likely with ZS9
    Downside max:- $10 - Should recover to $12 quickly. Jun 15th script data is bigger risk actually.
    Upside:- Up-to $35 (MS scenario Without Buyout Rumor)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Interest Analysis

    by vs1234gs May 25, 2016 9:39 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 25, 2016 10:36 AM Flag

    Look at Options, There is huge interest in Call Options yet not much on Put. Tell me who seems scare there????????
    Even Script number wasn't good yet we gone up (Before good script growth cause drop even) again who is scare there????????
    I try avoid being too optimistic but specially where you deal with crooks and corruption/ inside trading is all over place but I will stick to principle. I think there is more upside than down.

    I can't think anything but Short Squeeze in near future. (Assuming Institution player are not both Long and Short in large number)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • FDA clearly played game there (They should delayed ahead). Premium was sky rocket for Options, Short interest was sky rocket as well. I make some money there ( Was short $10 put , short spread $10-$8) (I was expecting rejection but no new trial requirement other than current Phase 3 & prepared to by around $8 average. )

    Hope FDA don't play here as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Here is my analysis:-
    14M+ total
    Around 5M Major short player who short every Small Pharma ( Or selective who has approved drug and choose to go alone) They unlikely scare, their hedge is larger sample. (This is class who added more short)
    Around 2M already have Hedge (Either have Option or both long and short) :- Again most of them large player
    Around 2M likely cover between 15th - today ( Script number cause blind sell off, Didn't happen last time)
    Around 2M Hoping to cover at better price after ZS9 (Mostly retail)
    Around 3M think they able to cover before ZS9 news or Hedge with Options (Small retail) Might already playing Cover Put to collect premium or short interest follower.

    Let's see how this play out.

    Until ZS9, Next couple day, Stock will remain volatile given short interest. I do expect to see higher up as some of them sure scare to death.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    comrades - we are in the top 50

    by stock_lurker May 24, 2016 10:24 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 24, 2016 11:02 PM Flag

    I totally agree. Volume surprising low other than MS upgrade. Even Script number which wasn't great does not cause small crash & yet there wasn't huge volume either.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    strange

    by topgunbioinvestor May 24, 2016 10:16 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 24, 2016 10:43 PM Flag

    Just another wild but possible guess.
    May be they plan take RLYP after ZS9 approval. In December end, AZN mention with specific offer $46. There are multiple rumor, but that was only rumor name specific company and price tag.

    If they looking to take over RLYP, they don't need to hire. Since they will own market, they can easily outbid everyone and/or make sure other don't get RLYP cheap.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    strange

    by topgunbioinvestor May 24, 2016 10:16 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 24, 2016 10:21 PM Flag

    I have observe same. AZN has one posting hiring CKD N America Marketing Chief & On ZS9 site, bunch of Director (for like North East, South East...) Very high level jobs.

    Although I don't consider it as good news. All it mean AZN not going to rush to market. They know unless Payer willing to pay, launch will go very slow and may cause doctor to stop prescribing (Since they have to spend whole lot more time getting approval) Also VK getting bad reputation & AZN launch can improve but no more.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Interest report tonight.

    by vs1234gs May 24, 2016 1:53 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 24, 2016 7:37 PM Flag

    Well if you watch trading closely since Script data, there is pattern that indicate they struggle to buy for sure. I think they not able to buy it so they instead buying call options & probably selling Put as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Interest report tonight.

    by vs1234gs May 24, 2016 1:53 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 24, 2016 5:36 PM Flag

    Yes I was in-fact considering to sell both $16 Call & Put for 25% of my position before 26th day. Reason:- Downside likely limited unless MS Scenario 1 play out. With upside I loss 25% share but I got $21 ($16+$5)
    Risky :- Yes but closer to $5 premium is great and I consider it as my hedge ( Average cost go down significantly)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Interest report tonight.

    by vs1234gs May 24, 2016 1:53 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 24, 2016 5:23 PM Flag

    Yes again I agree. I am just saying that CRL is remote but possible. I think lot of short will lose dry powder for sure. Just like we have fool in Long, we have fool in short as well who blindly follow other Short.

    I think this need to play-out. One thing I won't do is Sell out 100%, reason, If Label exactly as RLYP and BIG Pharma who working on BO, Price agreement already in place and Buyout happen rather quickly (They don't want someone else show interest that earlier didn't)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Interest report tonight.

    by vs1234gs May 24, 2016 1:53 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 24, 2016 5:16 PM Flag

    BTW as rapidsicfr posted short interest gone up to 14.7M.) This is significant and I can't think reason clearly.
    But I am focusing on positive side which is they have to cover & I know lot of retail hold huge number of share who not going to sell cheap. Most brought to double it. Last few day I show that Low Volume move stock that mean large market order and who is more suspicious than Short (Who scared.)

    We need very disappointing label like MS Scenario 1 (Which mean FDA don't care about Sodium) to cause huge crash & allow them to cover.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Interest report tonight.

    by vs1234gs May 24, 2016 1:53 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 24, 2016 5:05 PM Flag

    Agree this stock very hard to predict for all most everyone. I afraid our wait on getting decent Buyout might longer than we think.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Interest report tonight.

    by vs1234gs May 24, 2016 1:53 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 24, 2016 5:02 PM Flag

    Yes I know their bet as well & agree 100% time.
    Problem is if CRL, they can loss 100%+ easily in that event. Just because AZN thought it will get approved does not mean much.

    Remember lot of bidder required Approval as condition for ZSPH buyout. If they 100% sure approval with clean label, they won't wait. Bid difference wasn't as big even with buyout when announce months after.

    I think RLYP buyout possibility increase regardless how ZS9 label look like. Price point is only question & whether they able to get RLYP board on-board.
    I think it can range from $25 to $75 depending on label/ CRL.

    Also recent changes to various ZS9 trial make me feel something fishy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy