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Optimer Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

vs1234gs 245 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Apr 12, 2001
  • Reply to

    Google seems using Afterburner heavily

    by vs1234gs Feb 1, 2016 5:50 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Feb 1, 2016 5:55 PM Flag

    My point is, this growth is unsustainable and they might trying too hard which lot of time hurt. YouTube is about free experience. They need to sell ad to make money but if they use bit too heavy, people will run away to Hulu & Netflix which has lot of content.

    Also Content provider will soon demand heavy premium on their content which mean they have to increase ad.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Google in greed to become No.1 Company in world (Which they might claim at least in after hours) using all Afterburner possible.
    1. Heavy Ads on Youtube platform ( 100% increase in ads are crazy specially when Youtube out here for years now)
    2. Almost very little Capex Spending on Other bets (BTW they calling it Other bets!!!!!!)

    I am quite sure they trying to do same for Website. If you want to compare, FB yet to start ADs on few of it's biggest platform with 1B heavy users.

    Problem they going to run into is same as APPLE :- hardly any Afterburner fuel left here.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Google until now not making signficant money from Video, Now it increasingly become main revenue driver.

    What this mean. Google likely face more lawsuit as Content provider has bigger claim from Video Views count.

    Google need to figure out how to share revenue to Orignal content provider including one that violate Content right or Google will soon boat load with all different Lawsuits.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • This mean core business growing only 7-10%.

    Video is biggest. This is better business news for FB than Google. Reason, FB has many platforms where they can make further money on digital media and If Video monetizing going so well, Other platform that FB own not that hard to monetize and make money.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Summary of result

    by vs1234gs Feb 1, 2016 5:05 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Feb 1, 2016 5:11 PM Flag

    I think key message from earning is
    1. Video Growing (almost 70-80%), Static Ads not so much (More inline with Other Member sites (7%)
    2. Other bets capex very small, this is good and bad. Good that they not spending lot of cash, bad no new growth driver they finding.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • 1. Growth is good. Likely with Heavy ads on YouTube ( This is one area under utilize for ads)- If you want to look, Member website revenue only up by 7%. That mean very soon comparison hard for growth.
    2. There is no transparency as promise earlier. This is big negative.
    3. $4-$5B cashflow or $5B GAP profit make harder to justify such high price. Growth might keep Growth investor and so may remain around this level.
    4. Signifcant capex on Google Business which I mostly consider cost still (differed cost).
    5. Other bets capex heavy focus on Fiber network which mean not much other business Google investing anymore ( Capex drop related to that)

    Overall good quater but remember valuation is very high.
    Apple make $18B profit, Google make $21B revenue. This is huge difference.
    Only growing business is Video part. Which they actually started integrate more ADs last 9-12 month. Now they have very hard comparison.

    Price likely remain around 775 tomorrow.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Where is normal Press release for result

    by vs1234gs Feb 1, 2016 4:10 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Feb 1, 2016 4:22 PM Flag

    I have to find from Google website. And They divided revenue in 3 main segment
    Google search revenue, Google non search revenue & other segment revenue.
    How transparent this is.
    I don't think market will like their so called transparency.
    And yes Result is good but valuation is very high as well. I think Stock likely around 775 tomorrow. I will sure close position I hold for short put tomorrow.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • This is weird, Live blog reporting earling but no press release that standard for all earnings for every company.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • vs1234gs by vs1234gs Feb 1, 2016 4:00 PM Flag

    If you want to bet on Digital AD growth, bet on FB.

    I think FB soon consider biggest Digital AD network ( I think it will beat Google in next 3 year even if Google continue dominate Video & Search market)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Feb 1, 2016 3:53 PM Flag

    So now I loss money if stock go below 820 ( due to my earlier short call on 800, 810 minus my new Short Put) or below 660 ( When counting short put as profit) I think neither very likely and so I will make profit.

    We will see where we end-up here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Still expect price stay below 800. But I also think price not likely to go much lower. It's going to slightly beat environment, with All tech optimistic sailing in this boat ( FB is only other which i think has solid future and I am keep holding 1/8 of my holding with average price of just 30 and yet to monetize full market unlike Google who now finding hard to place Ads & growth (other than Youtube) )

    I think this Q is very mix. Good growth on You tube ( lot of Ads added to that platform now) & stable search business, Struggling hardware business & new startups cost.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Feb 1, 2016 3:46 PM Flag

    I have early news as well. all guess are wrong. hold into boat. Stock will likely stay where exactly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Feb 1, 2016 2:30 PM Flag

    that's about time when Technical go wrong. Understand game.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Stock still remain higher which mean, They taking advantage of poor Short trade with Stop order to limit loses. I would not surprise if price start falling in heavy volume.

    I am trying to increase my short call at 810. Too bad one of my broker where all my buying power left (TradeKing) is down. Hope it come backup soon so I can add more.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I don't like to short share but Google is becoming increasingly tempting. So started this.

    Very good premium. I think 800 is more like ceiling based on recent valuation adjustment.
    I am getting almost 1% premium + 8% safety net. We will see where this end.

    If Excercise, I will start selling Put to collect premium. Might not make big $ but premium likely 1-2% / week + keep my average down ( -$812 is average if both 800 and 810 call excercise.)

    If not go above 800, I will get lot of profit from this nake call.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Don't risk everything on big player manipulation. Based on news stream, they secretly exiting.

    Latest way to inject more air in bubble, do individual business valuation.
    Now take example:-

    Apple provide breakdown by category. Service Business is 6+ billion and growing 30%, Google Service business where all profit come likely around 16B-17B and likely growth around 20%

    So by defination, Apple Service Business should value 1.5 time google, If Google 90% value come from service (ad) business, then Google has $420B (Discounting cash) come from that business. now multiple 150% = about $625B+
    now divide by 3 = $210B

    So Apple has $530B value - $100B+ cache = $430 B - $210B service = $220B
    Other product also growing 30%+ in latest quater due to Watch and sell at $6B = $100B
    Mac Sure worth $100B+ (Making $8B+ Profit)
    IPAD worth $40B (Making atleast $6B+ profit - likley stabilize very soon as people love product still)
    So biggest profitable IPhone Business worth -$20B.

    Now this is what Analyst selling for google will say indivisual business worth $600B. Beware and Be Smart. Market Valuation can drop this company 20-30% (Remember KMI who has solid business and hardly any impact due to OIL for near term yet people put much lower valuation then they offer just few month ago)
    And there is no much up side left at this valuation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Credit Suisse Analyst :

    by notsoobviousman1 Jan 31, 2016 12:57 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jan 31, 2016 1:11 PM Flag

    I think 45K is well known fact for almost 1 year now. MRK is not stupid to start Price war where it can't win.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Revenue per employee

    by kalkhose Jan 31, 2016 12:26 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jan 31, 2016 1:10 PM Flag

    First Mass AG showing up on CNBC prove her motive. She likely getting Money from Big Market Player and trying to make impact of her statements as much as possible on stock price.

    Challenging GILD for pricing is almost like challenging Open Market using some law. Mass has lot to loose if it ever succeed in that attempt. Most Business will prefer to leave Mass then.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reason:- It can't win Price war when only 2.5-3M patient left. GILD unlikely let go market share easily and given better profile and 8 week treatment option, GILD can easily win in Price war and MRK actually not able to make good profit. It instead work on exclusive deals where possible with little discount over other to make 3-4B year and take respectable 15% Market share. same apply to ABBV.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sold VRTX bought Rlyp

    by growth12345 Jan 28, 2016 12:40 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Jan 31, 2016 12:33 PM Flag

    Average up is successful until you learn one day bomb wipeout everything. My strategy is Average Down including slow selling when price start going up. This way I can buy back when go down.

    I have VRTX with average down into $40 3 years ago. Company start going up and I keep selling and keep limited share at $130. Now price go down I able to use that cash to buy more then sell on single day for 8% profit and keep 1/8 of share which has same average as my other ($40 discounting 1day profit)

    Now if you think this is disaster strategy than everyone know how much you know about investing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy