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Optimer Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

vs1234gs 798 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Apr 12, 2001
  • If Price remain strong, I have strong feeling that someone know something good about May 26th or something they going to happen after May26th.

    If stock Crash, We unlikely recover until May 26th or until next script number (Assuming RLYP engineering number or suddenly doctor realize how important this drug is for their patient.)

    If Script number remain bad & No BO for next few month, This stock may keep going lower.

    My thesis :- Hope for best , Prepared for worst.
    Don't exit blindly as I seen such bad news has very positive spin but I recommend everyone to hedge your investment in some manner as real Risk there if Script Growth not return.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Issue

    by stock_lurker May 16, 2016 9:38 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 16, 2016 11:45 PM Flag

    Nice pointer. Indeed good post. Help calm some of my anger for management misguidance on Payer conversion rate & Script number. Also pattern is totally broken on Patient growth at very early stage.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why no volume after hours?

    by cnlg1000 May 16, 2016 10:58 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 16, 2016 11:38 PM Flag

    This only mean not many retail left. Price Action tomorrow will tell where we go. Hope no big long player feel as angry as I am due to Management cover-up job during either Earning call or Number engineering today (They unlikely as they are normally master in Lie game and so able to interpret better.)
    I wasn't looking at Level II and put small market order for sale right after 4:18 and it traded over 15 cent range (14.23-14.10). That time I feel bad as I might caused small crash and possible reason it went all way low 13. I sold limit order around 13.7 once stock price stable to sell remaining.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Rehash Article on AZN Zs9

    by afun1_98 May 16, 2016 10:49 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 16, 2016 11:29 PM Flag

    Good info. Some about ZS9 trial, I wasn't aware. Hope Analysis is based on truth & not speculative, specially about Serious Adverse Event part.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Longs, Look at the Positive Side

    by stock_lurker May 16, 2016 11:12 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 16, 2016 11:28 PM Flag

    I agree but BO price in No1 likely lower than 30. No.2 :- likely below 40 & You dind't put No.3:- which is CRL with Phase 3 safety requirement (Due to how ZS9 run trial) which case we can get above 50.

    in other word, BO hope is not good way to invest,
    This stock now very close to become pure BO trade, Earlier there was hope that Without BO this might do well as well if growth continue. Next 2 month script might kill all possibility & if BO not happen by then, expect BO price even go lower.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    RLYP real risk With ZS9 launch scenario.

    by vs1234gs May 16, 2016 10:36 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 16, 2016 11:20 PM Flag

    Also I am not going to exit before May 26th for sure. I sold 20% today :reason is I don't see my any of out of money Short call will get exercise, I do see some out of money put will get exercise (Earlier I was expecting some of those who closer to money will get exercise, My put will expire at May 20).

    I might turn out totally wrong and look complete idiot but I rather bring safety to my current money then bet blindly hoping to make million.

    I am here to stay until at least couple month. But keep lower cost by taking calculated risk (out of money short put ) & limit upside with cover short call. If Script remain stall, I can't stand behind this management who clearly lied either on earning call or today.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    RLYP real risk With ZS9 launch scenario.

    by vs1234gs May 16, 2016 10:36 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 16, 2016 11:12 PM Flag

    Problem is not whether VKonnect program good or bad. Problem is Doctor don't know what life without VKonnect. If they give both option, chances of VKonnect success & compliant would increase greatly.

    I am not against VKonnect at all but atleast RLYP give choice to Doctor office to use either. Fax Script to Speciality Pharma is normal process & When doctor office realize that it better to use VKonnect, They will comply better & consider positive factor than negative.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    RLYP biggest issue:- Management team.

    by vs1234gs May 16, 2016 10:49 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 16, 2016 10:58 PM Flag

    No 1 -5 reason associated to either being dishonest or conflict of interest,
    No.6 associated with Egoistic as In conference call, it not just defend VKonnect program, praise it heavily as if this is best process in world for doctors office.

    I give No. 6 highest odd ( Does not involve being dishonest which normally associated with possible criminal charge
    Follow by No.2 (Again hard to prove they are dishonest - long term number still match what they said) , No.5, No.3, No.1 & last possible reason No.4 (I doubt they even trying to understand how Launch is going)

    Good part remain is, Drug is about Need and not want. And so big pharma will continue see value in product. Which only reason I will keep some stack for long term gain.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • After spending lot of time analyzing number v/s what they mention on Earning Call, I come to conclusion that One or other is total LIE or may be wrong word usage (Script) instead saying how many total kit deliver (free, paid, hospital)
    Now with VKonnect they can engineer number very easily ( not fulfill on time, Prescription forward delay, Payer approval delay, They can control all.
    So why would they engineer April Number Lower:- I see few possible reasons.
    1. Doctor waiting to find out impact to other drugs & so growth on new patient stalled.
    2. ZS9 Label on may End, If stock drop because good label, After May Script number where everyone expect low number, they surprise with higher number to get life back in Stock price. They able to manage to show good growth in June as well which can help build momentum.
    3. Keep Price lower as high stock price hurt their negotiation.
    4. They confident about launch infation point so try to infalate further.
    5. They working to secure better position on bigger pharma after buyout & so trying to justify sell at lower price (Market not as big as thought excuse to sell cheap)
    6. VKonnect killing launch

    Regardless of any one of above reason, Management Honesty & recognizing real problem both seems compromise.

    I would rather stay away from such company where Management either Dishonest, Egoistic or conflict of interest.

    I can't believe that one point I thought Orwin is good executive and trying to build shareholder value.
    All I want is honesty on recognizing real problem and work to fix, not play everything in order game until you seems total idiot.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • So we know May 26th ZS9 will get approved.
    Now I never like VKonnect program after I go though form that need to fill and process that need to follow. CPharma blog where recent discussion echo my fear. So what is real risk.

    AZN know how to launch such Drug. Once ZS9 approved, Instead rushing to market, It will work though various payer plans and make sure good coverage there for majority life. Again AZN job posting indicate they only looking for very senior level positions right now which mean they haven't build reps team yet. When they launch, everything will go very smooth. Unlike V, They able to use retail pharmacy as well & That's biggest risk as all doctor will love not requiring additional papper work to send Script and then follow up paper work to justify approval. Once Doctor like that, They will prefer ZS9 over Veltassa.

    I was surprise about job listing for ZS9 but now it make perfect sense.

    My sincere hope is, RLYP Management realize that VKonnect is root cause. I don't trust this management team at all, I would rather believe Cpharma blog. Hope they listen to reps & simplify whole process.

    1300 out of 5000 prescription lost in process is very bad. This is not lost due to Payer resistance or anything that out of control, Assuming they are not cooking numbers, this is lost because Their process not even allow to send Free Kit in timely manner. VKonnect complain indicate same thing in-fact fight between Reps & someone working back-office in Blog.

    My investment plan, I am going to lower my risk significantly. My average is very close to current level & so I will start reducing risk. May not able to make lot of money but more important, won't lose money either.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This is not because script number( One month hardly define trend) But Can't keep such large risk when I can't trust management at all. They should have release this number on Earning call & explain difference between Script Written v/s Script fulfillment. Instead they use number of script written & praise VKonnect program which I think root cause. I was surprise on number of time they try defend about VKonnect in call, So I look at CPharma & found lot of reps complaining about VKonnect. I knew something wrong, I mention it earlier here but personally myself I ignore as temporary & infact take possitive spin that once that resolve, we will see better growth.

    I have 50% cover call (Likely Expire on May 20th) so can't make it nake short call. Keep 30% open now.

    I will start doing active trade & write more % cover call that closer to strike price on this stock but this time to reduce number of share over time. My work toward reduce risk going forward.

  • Reply to

    Veltassa Konnect

    by alleg180 May 16, 2016 5:13 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 16, 2016 5:17 PM Flag

    If CPharma blog followed, I agree as well. Simplify process for Doctor. They are very busy to follow one new process.

  • Reply to

    Who think Number are Cooked by maangement

    by vs1234gs May 16, 2016 5:06 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 16, 2016 5:16 PM Flag

    5000 script mean doctor need to write it & send it to V Connect. So why add together.
    Unless they are not reporting any TRX in this number, this does not make sense at all.

    Based on revenue it was total script (March end report)

  • Reply to

    ZS9 event.

    by vs1234gs May 16, 2016 4:59 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 16, 2016 5:13 PM Flag

    Well they mention script, not how many order they deliver. They don't required separate script for Free Sample as per their multiple call, Clearly there isn't much refill in this early stage. At best So if this is case.
    Management clearly cooking something, either preparing to sell cheap (Until now I doubt that but now I feel they may using VConnect so they can manipulate stock price easily.)

  • Please reply. We should send email to IR as well to find out why out of 5000+ script mention on Earning call, only 3700 free sample send out.
    We can build some pressure on management if everyone send at least 1 email to IR department.

  • vs1234gs by vs1234gs May 16, 2016 4:59 PM Flag

    Management make ZS9 true binary event for this company now.

    I was in thought that ZS9 has hardly any bad side effect but look like I was totally wrong. Given Script number bad ZS9 label is only possitive catalyst left for this company.

    I also thought Buyout not much matter but now Buyout is only hope to make money. This launch either not going as well as expect or Number get cooked by management ( I see pattern on 2nd part but either way not good for real investor)

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs May 16, 2016 4:55 PM Flag

    Sorry but based on Earning call, this number is not good. They mention 5000 prescription by 1700 doctor, 50% continue rate in Chronic & almost 80% conversion rate for payer. Nothing add up here.

    This number are cooked and clearly not for long investor.

  • Reply to

    Latest Rx stats just updated 5/16

    by bonzaibiotech May 16, 2016 4:47 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 16, 2016 4:52 PM Flag

    based on this until April they have 3700 free starter supply. If 1700 doctor written 5000 script, where is those 1300 script. They mention good part of VConnect which is patient receive free starter kit and not need to wait for payer approval.
    So why such disconnect???? Can't believe they mismanaging very important part of launch.

  • Reply to

    scripts

    by antoniojr93 May 6, 2016 8:31 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs May 16, 2016 4:47 PM Flag

    Yes nothing add up.
    I wonder if they looking to sell cheap? Earlier news event including Benzinga news was weird one (Never seen rumor that Company no longer have investment bank only after 1 week from news leak), Loan news release 1 day before earning was weird, now all Detail on Earning totally conflict with this number.

    I am not selling at this level since ZS9 uncertainty but I will stop investing more in this company. Prepared for wrost.

    Until now, I was thinking ZS9 will not have negative impact, now if ZS9 label good, we going to go down.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This is huge number of prescription where there is no Start Kit even send. Why such big disconnect? Is VKonnect taking way longer to process Prescription and Patient lose interest to get it, cancel prescription?

    Such huge gap is disaster. I can't understand what Management hiding???????