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Optimer Pharmaceuticals, AŞ Message Board

vs1234gs 80 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 23, 2015 10:34 PM Member since: Apr 12, 2001
  • This year Black Friday approach :- Night mare, I can't figure out when thing I am looking for will available. Prime priority is nightmare as well. Make me feel I am not important for them. More like Costco club membership.
    Only thing AMZN got right is Cloud service.
    As soon as Amazon stop offering discount and increase prime member price, people will go shop else where which likely offer discount. So scope of Amazon make money in near term = 0.

    I do hope Amazon keep raising as this is only stock I am comfortable with Nake short Call for some out of money. Dec 4 - 710-720 call is very good for shorting.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • If you discount Cash Difference, Google and Apple both has almost same market cap.
    1. Apple growth is better than Google
    2. Apple Pay dividend
    3. Apple spend more money with buyback
    4. Apple Service Business growing very fast.
    5. iphone market share increasing
    6. Bing is show up default Search for many Mobile vendor list including Apple which is biggest risk to Google as they don't have much to growth in Search Market share but lot of risk from Bing to Facebook.
    7. Lag on Cloud offering to AMZN & MSFT

    I think it worth Shorting Google and long Apple. You should also go long to FB. Given FB soon become leader in Mobile AD revenue, Many large platform where yet to target for AD, FB should worth same as Google if not more. I would Short AMZN as well. It not worth price specially WMT will grow faster on online place given Money they have in balancesheet and just start working to challange AMZN. Cloud business is very good but not enough to justify current market Cap. Long WMT ( there is very little risk on WMT at this price point.)

    I am not disputing Google/AMZN is great company with great inovation engine but either it worth less or other companies should worth more.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by sjohnmangel49 Nov 17, 2015 8:48 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Nov 17, 2015 9:48 AM Flag

    FDA has power to approve medicine. After socializd medicine, that law maker has power to decline medicine for all if they think medicine is too expensive.

    1. Inovation not matter. If can drug cure only 10,000 people it's not worth spending $300K for that drug just to help 10,000 people. They will pay $100 for drug does not matter if company stop innovating for those 10000 patients.
    2. Life saving drug may not get any coverage if govt agency feel its too expensive ( Example Braitain decline Benalysta because it's too expensive, even it give 30-40% people their life back from Lupus )
    3. Back door deal & corruption which will bring Millions for each lawmaker. We will have even more rich lawmaker.

  • vs1234gs by vs1234gs Nov 16, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    GoPro will recover to $40s with Drone successful launch. Wrost case Sony or Panasonic will by in Mid 30's.

    So this is best time to buy stock. Sony/Pansonic are prime candidate if price remain same level. They need to bring growth back and GPRO product complement their offering.

    Even Apple might buy specially if Drone launch successful since Apple need to diversify portfolio and GoPro product and brand both complement Apple in that area.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • People sold that everything will move to cloud. Although Cloud is growing, Public Cloud is very risky for big corp. Soon they will move to private cloud as they yet to go to Cloud as Service Model. And who is leader in Private cloud. IBM /EMC........
    Public cloud although will keep growing, IBM will become big player there as well. Brand name does matter in even in IT business.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Buffet likely going to add few more millions share this Q over last as it did last. Buffet don't invest blindly and following him is not bad idea. I brought 1000 share at 132.5. Sold 5 133 Call just to keep average low in case it get stuck. let's see where this go.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Look like back fire at Express script. They doing everything to make profit. Any company refuse to pay discount, they going after. This is short term method to make profit from some bad deal with insurance companies. Those Insurance and Express Script should and I think will get heat very soon.

  • vs1234gs by vs1234gs Nov 10, 2015 5:02 PM Flag

    I think dell has Plan B incase this required expensive Tax. This is first thing they would look into. Dell is not fool to give 4-6 Billion for free.

    For EMC even if deal break, it will get $4-6 Billion free which should add value to stock

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Instead issuing Tracking Stock. They can take loan by putting VMW share as gurrentee. They going to have very good cash flow so they can pay off to remove any possibility of fire sell. I think this is better than tracking stock as it make easier to buy VMW in future if they desire.

    They need to offer $30 cash. So only $6 more cash which is about $10-$12 billion. They can borrow atleast $9 Billion against VMW share ( 40-50% of market value )

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • So they might need to pay Tax on VMW spin off. So how much tax (long term capital gain on 12-13B =$3B. What is DELL breakup fee = 4-6 Billion dollar
    Unless something else is wrong, this is wrong reason to breakup for Dell.

    I suspect, Michel Dell and his partner doing this intentfully to grab as many EMC share as they can to make profit (Trading though someone else account)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • After VRX drama where he become powerful (With no research but taking lot of credit of someone else work by using word with fire), He just use it for his old foe QCOR (MNK brought QCOR). He fail big time to bring down QCOR earlier and probably lost lot of money.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vs1234gs by vs1234gs Nov 6, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    Hopefully this go down below $80. Planning to short put ( $65) on monday in large amount if it does. I think this is near bottom.

  • My all put short expiring and making thousands. Now My first short put at 75 so what probability it will get excise. My break even point is 69 for today's short put trade. Mean if monday it above 69, i am still making money.

  • At this price, Script data can drive price up and down. Main thing matter for price is how they selling after such negativity. If not much impact on script count, stock likely recover back to $150. If script for some key drug impacted, This going to stay here or go even down further.

  • Reply to

    CEO Margin Call Marks Bottom for VRX

    by technowreck Nov 6, 2015 8:44 AM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Nov 6, 2015 8:59 AM Flag

    Stock market not work based on multi year run up. It's based on financial. So If VRX can't sell drug going forward, yes it is worth less. If it successful, Long run it might go even higher than $260.

    Short term any price possible but long term depend on how VRX able to sell drug. This stock is good buy at this price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Goldman Such trigger 1 million + share sell of CEO. Which would bring down price by Few Dollar easily. This will trigger multiple stop loss market order which bring down few more dollar, then computer trading which detect sudden drop and start trading + short who think something happen bring down even further.

    This prove, borrowing money using stock not good idea even for big player. Pearson will need to sell more stock to pay income tax (If he does not have money)

    Now Stock price will determine based on how many hedge fund who can't stay in market still holding. If they start selling, they don't care price + margin call.

    Once all those settle, I think stock will start moving higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I am doing that and making lot of money. If it stay above 69 tomorrow I will make lot of money. if go below I will still make even more money eventually (By either swapping Put to next week or buying and then start shorting in money Calls).
    If you long, sell Calls option.
    If you want to buy I would instead sell Put ( If you end up with Share start shorting Call options that you comfortable either deep in money or deep out of money)
    Or If you like to take risk for more money, short both end out of money.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Nov 5, 2015 1:10 PM Flag

    So what is biggest value in VRX portfolio. You guess it right. Without SALIX, this would traded below 50. I would not even dare to short put without SALIX.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Hoping that they keep this stock below 80 on Monday so I can short more Put. I am considering to put more risk by shorting $65-$70 put for Nov 13. I sense this is near bottom. (Specially no significant bounce back even with no negative story indicate all lost interest in this stock which is good as most big player already sell if they cant stand long). retail short and hedge play (Short /Buy short term trade) are only remaining player. smart short will exit soon.

  • Reply to

    My huge Put short which expire tommorow Avg $69

    by vs1234gs Nov 5, 2015 1:02 PM
    vs1234gs vs1234gs Nov 5, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    Any short want to go on record.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy