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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

vskomarovsky 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 4, 2015 7:09 PM Member since: Feb 9, 2006
  • Reply to

    My Absolute Favorite Insight

    by greyzone513 Oct 4, 2015 11:23 AM
    vskomarovsky vskomarovsky Oct 4, 2015 7:09 PM Flag

    Yes, we, old-timers, should meet.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    My Absolute Favorite Insight

    by greyzone513 Oct 4, 2015 11:23 AM
    vskomarovsky vskomarovsky Oct 4, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    Best back to you, rat. Patience is gold.

  • Jean-Paul Kress, M.D., is the recently appointed Head of North America, Sanofi Genzyme Specialty Care Business Unit (Multiple Sclerosis, Oncology & Immunology). Prior to this appointment, Jean-Paul served as the President and CEO of Sanofi Pasteur MSD, the leading European vaccine company.

    “We are very pleased to welcome Jean-Paul to our Board of Directors and gain the benefit of his commercial and organizational expertise as eteplirsen, our lead candidate for the treatment of patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy, is pending review by the FDA,” said Edward Kaye, M.D., Sarepta’s interim chief executive officer and chief medical officer. “Jean-Paul is highly respected and his global experience and insights will be invaluable as we prepare for the potential commercialization of eteplirsen.”

    During his tenure with Sanofi Pasteur MSD, a joint venture between Sanofi Pasteur and Merck & Co (known as MSD outside the US and Canada), Jean-Paul embarked on a series of changes to reshape the organization to better meet the challenges of the rapidly changing vaccine industry and to drive the launches of a number of innovative new products. His ability to mobilize the organization to focus on the most critical priorities resulted in a turnaround of the business and provided a firm foundation for sustainable growth. A strong advocate for the socio-economic value of vaccination, Jean-Paul was actively involved in the development of health policy across the EU with a focus on disease prevention.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Miscellaneous Positive Regulatory Updates

    by berrybill725 Sep 28, 2015 10:51 PM
    vskomarovsky vskomarovsky Sep 28, 2015 11:08 PM Flag

    'recruiting' is the key word. Thanks, berrybill.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • vskomarovsky by vskomarovsky Sep 27, 2015 1:23 PM Flag

    ...the bomb doesn't hit the same place twice. FDA will approve Sarepta.

  • Reply to


    by thigrlsrk Sep 25, 2015 9:04 PM
    vskomarovsky vskomarovsky Sep 26, 2015 1:19 AM Flag

    It's massive biotech selling. Nothing else.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Post WMS Mtg

    by bbqmaster87 Sep 23, 2015 4:02 PM
    vskomarovsky vskomarovsky Sep 23, 2015 9:31 PM Flag

    PDUFA exceptions: 'The law provided exemptions and waivers for applications from small businesses, drugs aimed at ORPHAN diseases, or UNMET public health needs.'

  • Reply to

    Presentation Synopsis

    by mdwhittier Sep 17, 2015 5:45 PM
    vskomarovsky vskomarovsky Sep 17, 2015 6:03 PM Flag

    Kaye presented only necessary data. Minimum words. The shortest successful presentation since I bought shares in 2004.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • European market is waiting for Sarepta's drugs.

  • 5. August 25th, 2015:
    The FDA announced that it had accepted Sarepta's new drug application filing for eteplirsen, granting it priority review status and setting its PDUFA decision date for Feb. 26, 2016.
    Now What?
    Now we wait. The FDA advisory committee is expected to meet in November and SRPT is likely going to release some post-marketing study requirements. The way this FDA committee works is a little weird, so here's a go at it. The committee will offer its advice on whether the drug should be approved. It's common that the FDA will act as the committee suggests but it is not a guarantee. BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) also has a drug under FDA review called drisapersen (from Prosensa in acquisition). Interestingly, Drisapersen's PDUFA date is Dec. 27, 2015 two months before SRPT gets its big day.

    Drisapersen's has had a previous failure in phase III and Sarepta's still has that "unusual" result in the six-minute walk test results to the FDA

    SRPT has had its ups and down, seeing its stock price trade as low as $11 and as high as $37 in the last year, alone. It's management appears to have totally botched an advisory committee request and in a rather unusual moment, the FDA itself clarified its points on the development timeline. But after a very (very) long trial for its DMD drug, things look good. When I say "good," I mean, it has reached the final endpoint and the data looks promising.

    An FDA advisory committee will judge the drug and the FDA will take that into account and make a final decision. The addressable market for this drug has been estimated to be about $700 million in sales which isn't quite blockbuster status, but it's a non-trivial win if it goes through and the $1.4 billion market cap as of today would represent less than a 2:1 price to sales. SRPT would instantaneously become a takeover candidate for any number of mega cap biotechs.

  • vskomarovsky by vskomarovsky Aug 26, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    20th International WMS Congress, Wednesday 30th September- Sunday 4th October, 2015 Brighton, UK
    A 4-Day Symposium of the World Muscle Society in association with its official journal Neuromuscular Disorders
    The symposium will be in the traditional WMS format with 3 selected topics:
    The Congress will be held in the traditional WMS format with three selected topics. One day of the symposium will be dedicated to each of the selected topics addressing emerging discoveries in the field:

    Muscle metabolism and exercise in health and disease
    Immune mediated Peripheral Nerve, Neuromuscular Junction, and Muscle Disorders
    Advances in the treatment of Neuromuscular Disorders
    Abstracts will also be welcome on advances across the neuromuscular field.

    Brigton Dome

    Victor Dubowitz (London), Peter van Den Bergh (Brussels), Thomas Voit (Paris), Haluk Topaloglu (Ankara), Francesco Muntoni (London)

    Francesco Muntoni (Chair) (UCL Institute of Child Health, London)
    Ros Quinlivan (Vice Chair) (UCL Institute of Neurology, London)
    Mike Hanna (UCL Institute of Neurology, London)
    Mary Reilly (UCL Institute of Neurology, London)
    Susan Brown (Royal Veterinary College London)
    Heinz Jungbluth (Kings College London)
    Gita Ramdharry (UCL Institute of Neurology, Kingston University and St George's, University of London)
    Caroline Sewry (UCL Institute of Child Health)

    Opening of Registration and Abstract Submission: 1 December 2014
    Abstract Deadline Submission: 2 April 2015
    Early Bird Registration Deadline: 30 April 2015
    Regular registration opens: 1 May 2015
    Pre-Congress Course: 29-30 September 2015

  • Reply to


    by greyzone513 Aug 26, 2015 12:12 PM
    vskomarovsky vskomarovsky Aug 26, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    Perfect observation, copp. Cellular level of accuracy.

  • Reply to

    Another favorite article ... please read

    by kkdwoo Aug 19, 2015 6:35 PM
    vskomarovsky vskomarovsky Aug 19, 2015 6:42 PM Flag

    Marathoners approach the finish line.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Sarepta's stock could soar with a regulatory approval for its experimental DMD drug
    Sarepta's shares have already climbed by a staggering 139% this year, after the company announced that the FDA agreed to review its exon-skipping Duchenne muscular dystrophy, or DMD, drug, eteplirsen. Shorts, though, still hold a massive position in the stock, with over 35% of the float being sold short. As a reminder, eteplirsen's regulatory pathway has been hindered by the fact that Sarepta has only completed a midstage study that included a grand total of 12 patients.

    While there's a good chance that the FDA could still decide to reject the application outright or issue a Complete Response Letter following a formal review, the obvious risk for short-sellers is that eteplirsen's limited data turn out to be enough to convince the agency that its benefits outweigh the risks for a disease that is always fatal. Perhaps the biggest issue that should be keeping short-sellers up at night is that an eteplirsen approval may validate Sarepta's remaining DMD pipeline that seeks to treat upwards of 80% of this patient population -- meaning that its DMD platform has the potential to rake in billions in sales.

  • Reply to

    SPT CEO Gives New Meaning to "brief"

    by berrybill725 Aug 6, 2015 1:44 PM
    vskomarovsky vskomarovsky Aug 6, 2015 1:56 PM Flag

    That is from 'Sarepta CEO: All boys in Duchenne trial still walking after nearly 4 years'

  • Reply to

    SPT CEO Gives New Meaning to "brief"

    by berrybill725 Aug 6, 2015 1:44 PM
    vskomarovsky vskomarovsky Aug 6, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    More than revenues, losses or cash reserves, that was the piece of news that caught investors’ attention this morning when Sarepta Therapeutics (Nasdaq: SRPT) gave its quarterly update. The trial on which the company will rely heavily for approval of its drug to slow the progression of Duchenne muscular dystrophy has been ongoing for almost four years now. The 10 boys taking part in that part of the trial (two were excluded years ago from the averages because they lost their ability to walk early on) have been tested every six months to see how far they can walk over the course of six minutes to measure how fast their muscles are deteriorating due to the disease.
    While the company did not disclose the exact results of that trial of 10 boys, the fact that all are still able to walk at all is good news. The average age of the 10 boys is now more than 12 years, the average age at which boys with Duchenne become wheelchair-bound due to the disease. That fact is likely the cause of the 2 percent share increase today as of noon at $33.38, within a few cents of the company’s highest share price in the past year.
    Interim CEO Ed Kaye disclosed the fact on a conference call with analysts this morning, and said that the company intends to make specifics of the trial results after 192 weeks (about three years and eight months) known before an FDA advisory committee meets to recommend whether the drug, called eteplirsen, should be approved, likely in late November. The agency has not given a specific date for the meeting, nor has it officially blessed Sarepta’s application for approval of the drug, but assuming it does, the full agency could approve the drug as soon as late February.

  • Reply to

    interesting trial analysis from twitter

    by immediatereliefxxx Jul 16, 2015 4:05 PM
    vskomarovsky vskomarovsky Jul 17, 2015 1:39 PM Flag

    Different set of investors and SRPT is a bigger threat for all hedge funds that got accustomed to play it up and down.

  • Reply to

    Margaret Hamburg

    by richs375 Jul 16, 2015 5:47 PM
    vskomarovsky vskomarovsky Jul 16, 2015 7:17 PM Flag

    Peter Fitzhugh Brown - Margie's husband. He is CEO of Renaissance Technologies hedge fund, which trades in markets around the world, and has employed complex mathematical models to analyze and execute trades, many of them automated. Renaissance uses computer-based models to predict price changes in easily traded financial instruments. These models are based on analyzing as much data as can be gathered, then looking for non-random movements to make predictions.[ Some also attribute Renaissance performance to employing financial signal processing techniques such as pattern recognition.
    Presumably, SRPT was shorted by Brown with the tips from Margie. Crime yet to be punished.

  • Reply to

    Sarepta Trials

    by usagary1 Jul 16, 2015 3:20 PM
    vskomarovsky vskomarovsky Jul 16, 2015 3:34 PM Flag

    Can you see your hair grow?

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