NASH is the third most common indication for liver transplantation in the United States and is on a trajectory to become the most common. Outcomes for patients undergoing a liver transplant for NASH are similar to those for other indications. Average cost of liver transplant in the US is $750,000. Estimated cost of NASH treatment $20,000 to $90,000.
Why would an analyst wait until now to follow this company only to say it is worth 40% less than current levels? Who benefits from that? Why even start coverage? Most analysts would be inclined to start new coverage on a stock that they believed to be undervalued that their client will benefit from owning. The only motivation with this initiation of coverage is to drive the price down. This would be motivation if they started a short position higher or are trying to manipulate the stock down in order to take a large position. Any talk about cost of treatment is nonsense. First, if the FDA approves it, it works, second, the cost of a liver transplant is five times the cost of this treatment this drug is certainly more readily available than livers for transplants.
The cost of treatment vs. a liver transplant, I am sure insurance companies will prefer the treatment at a quarter of the cost and the ability to treat most of the population that are affected and actually save lives.
There is no rational, justifiable argument this analyst can make to warrant this after Mondays report. His firm is either short and trying to get out of a huge loss from having their pants down or they are midst of trying to take a huge position or they have clients attempting to do one or the other. Not one other person on the street has anything close based on current valuation and any logical, reasonable person understands the potential upside attributed to this news, even Adam Feuernstein agreed, that should be proof enough.
When a company that has revenue potential of close to $20 billion, and now a strong probability of approval, it normally does not trade at such a discounted multiple. Currently, this company, trading at less than a 1/3 of potential revenue is absurd. NASH alone should generate $4 billion in sales. When there is such a blatant disconnect between a stocks potential value and its current share price, one of two things will happen. One, the share price will rise to within a reasonable percentage of fair value or the company will be purchased at or slightly below fair value. With potential revenue from several applications near $20 billion, the fair value, discounted down for probability, should be close to $600 to $700. Given that this float is so LOW and insiders and funds own a majority, this should be right where it gets done. Large pharma will circumvent the long, costly and risky process of doing their own research and development and can easily justify making the investment at this price given the astronomical return on investment potential and the ability to solidify themselves as the leader in one of the most important emerging pharmaceutical markets. This will happen if the market does not bid the price up, it is just a matter of time. $600 to $700 takeout, mark it.
Large Pharma views NASH as a very important disease to target and has the potential to be one of the most important emerging pharmaceutical markets over the next 5 to 10 years. There currently is no other drug on the market to treat this disease. There is currently at least $600 million in off label sales. Now this drug has a strong safety profile and has a broad promise across a range of liver diseases.
OCA for PBC projected share value $185. NASH projected share value $665. PSC projected value of $65. Portal Hypertension projected value of $75. Discount down 10%, 8x revenue multiple, this equates to share value of $891.
closer to $15 billion or $750 would be fair at this juncture and a drop in the bucket for GILD. Future potential NASH revenue is $15 billion +, they would be getting a very good price at that level.
PBYI float is 20 million shares, ICPT is 12 million. PBYI now up 267% in premarket. You will see ICPT with this upside very soon.
From January high in the $140's down to the high 50's today, then after hours in the $170's! On trial news. By the way, they have a float of 20 million shares, sound familiar? A 200% increased would put ICPT close to $700. This is a reality folks, this can and does happen. The greedy shorts in PBYI now know what it feels like.
ICPT is the only one you want to be in to follow this blockbuster drug. All so often, you will see a smaller company trying to ride the coat tails of the bigger, real story. The morons will come out of the woodwork and desperately try to pump their pos on unsuspecting suckers trying to make a quick buck, that is why they have infested this board. This is no different than bucket shop pumpers who try to inflate imaginary stocks so they can sell their shares to you at a high price and you are left holding the bag. This company may have a drug in trials, but it will not stand up to ICPT. There were plenty of erectile dysfunction drugs that went to trial, there are really only two that you know, and this is the case with the majority of blockbuster drugs and it will be the case with ICPT.
I am almost worried that a buyer will come in at this vulnerable level, this will go to $900, but may get taken out between $500 and $750, we will not be able to see the full value, but I will take it.
It will be just a matter of time now before we see that this is the real deal. The next thing we hear from the company could be the catalyst that moves this past $450.
Actually, you are very wrong in your assessment. Her salary is probably minimal, so her pay is dependent on options and the stock going up. Second, she left a job making seven figures regardless of what happens. Third, analysts that leave their positions and go to companies do not get easily hired back, specifically if "does not work out". One who leaves for a hedge fund may be able to reenter the circuit, but not a senior executive of a company, this is a one shot deal. Fourth, her employment with the company is a MAJOR factor in the companies potential and consider it a testament to its probability of success. Reputationally, professionally and financially, she has made this decision based on intense due diligence and full analysis of the risk/reward and confidence of probability of the positive outcome.
NASH patients have elevated lipid levels as part of their overall condition anyway. It was always expected that increased cholesterol should be manageable with statins or other standard anti-lipid therapy. I am not sure why people are trying to make this into something it is not.
First, if you are simply "on" Genfit, then why waste your time here? Second, based on how grammatically and punctually wrong your writing is, you may want to rethink trying to sway anyone here, most people will not listen to someone who resembles the intelligence of a fourth grader.
$650-$750 this is going to be monumental, the drug is a blockbuster and the results will prove it. The nonsense that is spewed by shorts about complications is ridiculous. The results will show the true power of this drug and those who risk being short will be very sorry they took this risk. PS you can cover your short with my shares at $749.