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VIVUS Inc. Message Board

vvusforme71 43 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 30, 2015 4:00 PM Member since: Sep 6, 2013
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  • Reply to

    $9 Billion Buyout, NOT SUCH A GOOD DEAL FOR US !

    by bills2noend Jan 30, 2015 11:13 AM
    vvusforme71 vvusforme71 Jan 30, 2015 4:00 PM Flag

    The company is thinking its worth just over $18 Billion, or mid $800's. With a potential market of over $20 billion, they expect to have huge penetration with the first drug and the highest efficacy. Sure, they first need approval and then need to market it, but mid $800's is what it should be worth now, prior to all of that happening. With future potential revenue from this drug, with the current probability of over 80% approval, discounted back 10%, this is makes sense. In a buyout, the company needs a marketer, Salesforce and an experienced team to maximize its potential revenue, this is certainly where this makes a good fit. The company will hold out for the best price given this potential and low float. However, they must do what is in the best interest of the shareholders, so if that means selling between $12 and $16 billion to secure the appropriate partner to market this drug, then this has a high probability of coming to fruition. This puts the stock somewhere around $650.

  • vvusforme71 vvusforme71 Jan 30, 2015 5:51 AM Flag

    Investing is a marathon, not a sprint.

  • Reply to

    Analysts

    by vvusforme71 Jan 15, 2015 4:39 PM
    vvusforme71 vvusforme71 Jan 30, 2015 5:50 AM Flag

    Hope you were paying attention.

  • vvusforme71 vvusforme71 Jan 30, 2015 5:49 AM Flag

    Hope you took my advice.

  • vvusforme71 vvusforme71 Jan 29, 2015 7:51 PM Flag

    Rachel's plan is starting to come together, stay tuned!

  • vvusforme71 vvusforme71 Jan 16, 2015 7:44 AM Flag

    Average down.

  • Reply to

    Analysts

    by vvusforme71 Jan 15, 2015 4:39 PM
    vvusforme71 vvusforme71 Jan 16, 2015 7:43 AM Flag

    Neither can you, but I would much rather put my money based on highly educated, intelligent analyst than you.

  • vvusforme71 by vvusforme71 Jan 15, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    Cowen analyst Ritu Baral maintained an Outperform rating on Intercept Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ICPT) with a price target of $420, as the company provided a clinical update on obeticholic acid (OCA), a novel bile acid analog and first-in-class agonist of the farnesoid X receptor (FXR), as well as planned 2015 milestones and other general business updates.

    Baral noted, “The corporate update indicates ICPT is on track with all its planned clinical programs, especially the anticipated NDA filing of OCA in PBC and the new Phase 2 trial in PBC. NASH, however, remains investors’ focus. We see ICPT’s goal of starting a Ph3 program here in 1H15 as encouraging but likely aggressive, as timing relies on timely FDA talks and final feedback.”

  • vvusforme71 by vvusforme71 Jan 15, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    These analysts currently have a perfect opportunity to lower their price targets to be in closer proximity to the current market price, but very few if any are doing it out of sheer belief and confidence that the targets will be achieved. They could simply put their targets at $200 or even $300 which is a 33% and a 100% return respectively, no one would argue with that. This would allow them to continue to raise their targets as they are hit and would be the easy, conservative method. The majority of them, have not taken this route. They risked their reputation and potentially their job to maintain a price objective that is four to 4 1/2 times the current price, why? It is because that is where this stock should be and either the market does not get it or people want to wait until the stock is 50 to 100% higher before they start buying with everyone else. The clear truth is that the number of analysts who are sticking their necks out when it is not required is a true testament to the fact that this stock will be over $600 in the near future.

    Summer Street $650
    Cowen $420
    C $475
    Baird $311
    Just to name a few.

  • vvusforme71 vvusforme71 Jan 15, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    maybe try looking past a few hours? Good things will happen in time, one has to be patient with investing.

  • Reply to

    gonna be out of cash before end of year

    by bavaris7 Jan 12, 2015 12:45 PM
    vvusforme71 vvusforme71 Jan 12, 2015 3:34 PM Flag

    You are an idiot, they just said they have $240 million and are spending $180 to $200 per year. Go check your math and leave unless you have something intelligent to say, moron.

  • Reply to

    This is Very Good News.

    by vvusforme71 Jan 12, 2015 11:13 AM
    vvusforme71 vvusforme71 Jan 12, 2015 12:09 PM Flag

    The market will have no choice soon but to like it.

  • vvusforme71 by vvusforme71 Jan 12, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    RBC Program: Rolling NDA submission initiated in December 2014; Phase 3 confirmatory outcomes trial initiated in Dec. 2014; Completion of NDA and MAA filings planned in 1H15.

    •NASH Program: IND and comprehensive FLINT trial datasets transferred from NIDDK to Intercept in December 2014; Phase 3 program initiation planned in 1H15; Japan Phase 2 trial data expected YE 2015.

    •PSC Program: Phase 2 trial initiated in Dec 2014.

    •Biliary Atresia: Phase 2 initiation planned in 2H 2015.

    •INT-767: Phase 1 initiation planned for YE 2015

    NDA and MMA Flings can be anytime in next 5 months
    PIII of NASH, anytime in next 5 months
    PII PSC already started
    Cash funded until mid 2016

  • vvusforme71 vvusforme71 Jan 12, 2015 11:06 AM Flag

    Either #$%$ is saying that now GILD could own both ICPT and the "German Group" today, getting the "German Group" basically for free, as the market cap of ICPT has fallen by the total amount of the purchase of the company. So, in essence, the market cap of both now, today, is at least $436m less than it was on the date prior to the purchase. Any other explanation and the statement makes no sense.

  • vvusforme71 vvusforme71 Jan 7, 2015 7:34 PM Flag

    Summer Street notes, "We see the recent acquisition of Phenex Pharmaceuticals' FXR agonist program for NASH by Gilead as an important “shot across the bow” for companies in the NASH space in general and for ICPT in particular...ICPT remains the clear leader in the NASH space, in our opinion, with OCA expected to enter phase III trials in 1H15 with a potential interim analysis by early 2016

  • vvusforme71 vvusforme71 Jan 7, 2015 7:32 PM Flag

    According to Mr. Skorney, it is possible that Gilead will now no longer deem Intercept as a potential acquisition target; however, the reverse may also be true. He stated: “Of course the initial read from this deal is that Gilead passed on Intercept. This may be true but we note that the Phenex price isn't even in the same ballpark as what they would need to pay for Intercept (current market cap is 7x the total deal value). We believe Gilead has a history of spending money in an area to build up expertise ahead of a more transformative acquisition. Gilead spent a significant amount of time trying to develop its own nucleotide analog for Hepatitis C prior to acquiring Pharmasset. YM BioSciences and Calistoga Pharmaceuticals are other examples of Gilead purchasing assets that trailed a later-stage program that has continued to be successful

  • vvusforme71 by vvusforme71 Jan 7, 2015 3:56 PM Flag

    Baird analyst Brian Skorney, on the other hand, views the news as positive for Intercept. “While there may be an initially negative reaction to Gilead acquiring its own FXR program (as opposed to Intercept), we believe that the net effect is a positive for Intercept and OCA,” said Mr. Skorney. “Particularly, we believe the deal validates FXR agonism as a mechanism of action to treat NASH, [which is good news] given the skepticism we have previously heard from Gilead regarding the target,”

  • vvusforme71 by vvusforme71 Jan 7, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    Analysts at Summer Street maintain their "buy" rating for Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ICPT). The target price is set to $650.

    Summer Street notes, "We see the recent acquisition of Phenex Pharmaceuticals' FXR agonist program for NASH by Gilead as an important “shot across the bow” for companies in the NASH space in general and for ICPT in particular...ICPT remains the clear leader in the NASH space, in our opinion, with OCA expected to enter phase III trials in 1H15 with a potential interim analysis by early 2016."

  • vvusforme71 by vvusforme71 Jan 7, 2015 3:42 PM Flag

    According to Mr. Skorney, it is possible that Gilead will now no longer deem Intercept as a potential acquisition target; however, the reverse may also be true. He stated: “Of course the initial read from this deal is that Gilead passed on Intercept. This may be true but we note that the Phenex price isn't even in the same ballpark as what they would need to pay for Intercept (current market cap is 7x the total deal value). We believe Gilead has a history of spending money in an area to build up expertise ahead of a more transformative acquisition. Gilead spent a significant amount of time trying to develop its own nucleotide analog for Hepatitis C prior to acquiring Pharmasset. YM BioSciences and Calistoga Pharmaceuticals are other examples of Gilead purchasing assets that trailed a later-stage program that has continued to be successful

  • Has any impact on ICPT. First, the ideal buyer would be MRK, JNJ, BMY or BIIB, they have no current presence in this market. Second, the purchase by GILD is a confirmation of the science that ICPT already has the lead product on.

VVUS
2.62-0.15(-5.42%)Jan 30 4:00 PMEST

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