From Wedbush Analyst today, here is a realistic valuation based on anticipated sales. She has PBC at $2.4 billion and Nash at $3 billion ( too low) with $5.4 billion in sales and a conservative multiple would put you over $700, that is if it does not get bought out prior to that.
"Additionally, we believe that if the FDA includes reversal of fibrosis as one the primary endpoint – we currently believe it will–we could see a downtick in the valuation of other NASH players given the higher bar set for approval.”With completion of the two Phase 1 trials for OCA in PBC, we believe the company is set to complete the NDA/MAA submission by H1:15. We currently anticipate launch in early 2016, and project WW peak sales could reach $2.4BN in 2022. We project OCA/NASH US launch in Q1 2018 and gross peak worldwide sales could reach over $3BN"
Same as when you asked on December 29th:
One, PBC NDA, this is big. Two, NASH pIII, huge. Three, PSC pII, big. Also the current price reflects PBC without any other applications. According to most analyst valuations, this stock is undervalued by approximately by over 200%+, so that would be a catalyst in itself. Don't forget any updates. Most people did not even know about this stock last January before it went up from $70 to $497, this is your second chance. Plus any potential buyout with this small a float could send it to $500.
Appointment Positions Intercept for Next Phase of Growth as it Plans for Commercialization of OCA for PBC and NASH.
FYI she used to work for GILD.
GILD idelalisib Phase III stopped early in October 2013 for interim analysis showing highly statistically significant efficacy.
The CEO is still governed by the Board of Directors. As a board, they will have to do what is in the best interest of the shareholders. They still need to market the product and have no reputable salesforce to accomplish this. A list of potential acquires prompts completion and a sense of urgency, specifically with this current low price.
ICPT also has PBC, which has a NDA and could be on market this year. There are apparently hundreds of thousands being treated for this now with off label scripts. Breakthrough on NASH will allow huge premium. There are also several other applications in the works. Very much ahead of Pharmassett in several ways.
A little over three years ago, GILD, a $30 billion market cap company at the time, purchased Pharmasset inc for $11 billion, a 89% premium over the prior days price. The deal represented a purchase that was 33% of the market cap of the acquired. This company had no significant marketed products. Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Merck had already won approval that year for the same treatment. This was for a disease that infects 180 million people worldwide. Now ICPT, is fully funded to 2017, has a FDA Breakthrough drug entering PIII for NASH, a disease that infects a estimated 600 million worldwide and no other marketable drugs available as well as they have will have the first marketable drug when approved. GILD now has a market cap of $150 billion, 5 times the size it was when it purchased Pharmasset inc, If you think that this will not happen to ICPT, you are delusional. The list of potential acquirers is substantial if you use the above as a barometer. Any Bio with a market cap north of $25 billion would qualify. This, in theory, would allow them to quintuple their market cap by minimum. ICPT needs a company that can market this blockbuster drug, the question is who will it be, when and for how much?
The company is thinking its worth just over $18 Billion, or mid $800's. With a potential market of over $20 billion, they expect to have huge penetration with the first drug and the highest efficacy. Sure, they first need approval and then need to market it, but mid $800's is what it should be worth now, prior to all of that happening. With future potential revenue from this drug, with the current probability of over 80% approval, discounted back 10%, this is makes sense. In a buyout, the company needs a marketer, Salesforce and an experienced team to maximize its potential revenue, this is certainly where this makes a good fit. The company will hold out for the best price given this potential and low float. However, they must do what is in the best interest of the shareholders, so if that means selling between $12 and $16 billion to secure the appropriate partner to market this drug, then this has a high probability of coming to fruition. This puts the stock somewhere around $650.