There is no better drug in this space that will be $30 to $40 BILLION annually. Big pharma will be getting a bargin for a $700 buyout. They will have to act quick before it reaches that number on its own. I would say it will happen within a few weeks now.
Just because we have seen a run up in this the last two weeks should not prompt you to sell as this should be over $325 or higher next week in anticipation of the 20th. Also, when Genfit's trial disappoints, expect to see a huge surge. I would not want to be out of this over the weekend and would certainly not want to sell now and see it up $50 to $100 over next few weeks.
Actually, with future potential revenue, the cost of R&D and the probability of success, this makes perfect sense. This company has a very low float and with $15 to $20 billion in potential revenue, $700 is actually a huge discount. By the way, GILD has already demonstrated this with its Pharmasset acquisition. A company paying a dividend has no bearing on if they can buy a company or not, they have plenty of cash as well as they can use their stock as currency, so you comment is pointless and ignorant.
NASH is currently the third most common reason for liver transplants in the U.S., Alethia Young, an analyst with Deutsche Bank, wrote in a research report Monday. She estimates that about 6.5 million adults in the U.S. and the five major European countries have advanced NASH, and puts the peak market for medicines at $35 billion to $40 billion by 2025.
or anytime before the 20th for that matter,. With all the M&A in bio's and the plethora of positive announcements on ready to be released, this should break $350 easily.
1. March 20th conference great news coming: CHECK
2. PIII of NASH coming shortly: CHECK
3. NDA on PBC coming shortly: CHECK
4. Leading NASH candidate: CHECK
5. M&A in biotech: CHECK
6. Fully funded for several years: CHECK
7. Poised to go over $350 soon: CHECK
No less than $600 now...
From Wedbush Analyst today, here is a realistic valuation based on anticipated sales. She has PBC at $2.4 billion and Nash at $3 billion ( too low) with $5.4 billion in sales and a conservative multiple would put you over $700, that is if it does not get bought out prior to that.
"Additionally, we believe that if the FDA includes reversal of fibrosis as one the primary endpoint – we currently believe it will–we could see a downtick in the valuation of other NASH players given the higher bar set for approval.”With completion of the two Phase 1 trials for OCA in PBC, we believe the company is set to complete the NDA/MAA submission by H1:15. We currently anticipate launch in early 2016, and project WW peak sales could reach $2.4BN in 2022. We project OCA/NASH US launch in Q1 2018 and gross peak worldwide sales could reach over $3BN"
Same as when you asked on December 29th:
One, PBC NDA, this is big. Two, NASH pIII, huge. Three, PSC pII, big. Also the current price reflects PBC without any other applications. According to most analyst valuations, this stock is undervalued by approximately by over 200%+, so that would be a catalyst in itself. Don't forget any updates. Most people did not even know about this stock last January before it went up from $70 to $497, this is your second chance. Plus any potential buyout with this small a float could send it to $500.
Appointment Positions Intercept for Next Phase of Growth as it Plans for Commercialization of OCA for PBC and NASH.
FYI she used to work for GILD.
GILD idelalisib Phase III stopped early in October 2013 for interim analysis showing highly statistically significant efficacy.
The CEO is still governed by the Board of Directors. As a board, they will have to do what is in the best interest of the shareholders. They still need to market the product and have no reputable salesforce to accomplish this. A list of potential acquires prompts completion and a sense of urgency, specifically with this current low price.
ICPT also has PBC, which has a NDA and could be on market this year. There are apparently hundreds of thousands being treated for this now with off label scripts. Breakthrough on NASH will allow huge premium. There are also several other applications in the works. Very much ahead of Pharmassett in several ways.