Not as much as I thought it was going to be, but still demonstrating downward trend. You can make out the average line of incline and decline on the 5 day chart-- good deal of control in the up and down to either side of the inflection point at the 3/6 high. That overshoot was offset by the initial overshoot to the downside shortly after the open today, which righted itself and biding time until the midday move down begin.
People are thinking that the jobs number tomorrow will be bad= market sell off. Lock in profits of your high flyers if you are able to. Today was a pop higher and sell down slow to the incoming bagholders I would think.
If the jobs number is great the FED will stick to the taper = market down.
If the jobs number is bad, the FED will write off the number to the weather, continue taper= market is down.
NOW, here's the tricky part. Since a lot of people have broadcast the likelihood of a sell off tomorrow because of the jobs number, there are probably a lot of people who bought a TON of puts today across some names. What, then, is the most pain to the most people? The market does NOTHING tomorrow, just moves sideways. That takes the wind out of the MAR 7 calls bought today on a contrarian bet versus the expected sell-off. AND it hurts those that loaded up on puts because the "sure thing" bet looked to be a jobs number induced sell-off.
Market going sideways tomorrow would be the biggest slap in the face to the most people. And commissions go through the roof from all the trades today to position for the expected move, and then tomorrow as people try to get out of the positions and even further if people put on the opposite.
It's a dollars game people-- who makes the most? The banks and brokers and news outlets because everyone will be placing orders and providing "eyeballs" to news websites to see what went wrong, which then drives up the advertising revenue to those places.
OR... something completely different could happen. Who knows. I sure don't.
Looks like it has started. Pull up the 5 day chart. Notice the inflection point at the high of today. The first real reversal since the start of the run. We had some up and down moves on March 4 but still ended the day higher than the previous close. I don't think you will get that today, especially ahead of tomorrow's jobs numbers and the expected market sell off it will bring.
I reversed my options trade on this today. Had initially bought the Sept $40 for $17 the day after earnings came out. Sold a few days later at $22. Then jumped back on with out of the money calls, April $80's (I was the first three bought on that line) for $0.62. Sold today at $1.80. I am now short through out of the money puts, March 22 $70 strike for $0.75. If the momentum fades, people will run for the doors quickly to lock in that astounding move since earnings. Additionally, there are a number of gaps on the chart up to here that will provide some very juicy targets on the way down if you go against the stock.
I've wondered about that too, but it looks like buyers are sifting the market for companies with good earnings forecasts that have been largely ignored in the P/E expansion of the last year. If they price ARII in line with other rail industry/ manufacturing industries names, look for this to potentially grab a 19-20 P/E in the coming weeks.
Interesting that this was in the green during yesterday's sell-off as well-- the company is largely insulated from any negative global news since it is domestic and in a position to serve a secular growth story within the domestic space.
Very likely as well. I just wanted to throw it out there. A rounding bottom over 3-4 years at the tail of a 10 year long flat line. Just might be working that way.
A cup and handle formed on the chart looking back to 2011? Looks like we have a pretty solid cup forming around this level. If we start selling off we could get a handle that might take a few months to flesh out, but there there would be a significant move to the upside following. Would give them the time needed for a few more quarters of results to come through justifying their move into profitability and the stock level.
Would also give plenty of time to load more shares down probably 10-20% off the highs during the handle formation.
Not saying I believe it is likely, but it looks like it could be setting up on the charts. Just throwing it out there for discussion.
kevin, you better do your homework. GE has Jenbacher engines and Waukesha generators that cover all the way down to the 165kW range.
Somewhere around $120 maybe... nice moving average level. It broke right through the 100 today. $120 area takes it to 200 avg... If they have any more disruptions or 787 problems in the near future the 365 avg might be in play---- and especially if the whole market rolls over.
They are ramping production of the 737 which is great for getting the backlog trimmed and possibly getting some nice big orders coming through... but at low $70 million list price it sure isn't going to make up for the 767's coming off the books and the 777's slowing up.
Did they give a reason? I haven't seen a published transcript yet. Wondering if they had to give deep discounts on some 787's to keep them in the order book.
They better be in there using that $10 billion allocation to buy shares hand over fist. Could get some real stock brought into treasury down here. $10 billion at $145 buys nearly 69 million shares. At $129 its 77.5 million. Please let them be buying.