Not as much as I thought it was going to be, but still demonstrating downward trend. You can make out the average line of incline and decline on the 5 day chart-- good deal of control in the up and down to either side of the inflection point at the 3/6 high. That overshoot was offset by the initial overshoot to the downside shortly after the open today, which righted itself and biding time until the midday move down begin.
People are thinking that the jobs number tomorrow will be bad= market sell off. Lock in profits of your high flyers if you are able to. Today was a pop higher and sell down slow to the incoming bagholders I would think.
If the jobs number is great the FED will stick to the taper = market down.
If the jobs number is bad, the FED will write off the number to the weather, continue taper= market is down.
NOW, here's the tricky part. Since a lot of people have broadcast the likelihood of a sell off tomorrow because of the jobs number, there are probably a lot of people who bought a TON of puts today across some names. What, then, is the most pain to the most people? The market does NOTHING tomorrow, just moves sideways. That takes the wind out of the MAR 7 calls bought today on a contrarian bet versus the expected sell-off. AND it hurts those that loaded up on puts because the "sure thing" bet looked to be a jobs number induced sell-off.
Market going sideways tomorrow would be the biggest slap in the face to the most people. And commissions go through the roof from all the trades today to position for the expected move, and then tomorrow as people try to get out of the positions and even further if people put on the opposite.
It's a dollars game people-- who makes the most? The banks and brokers and news outlets because everyone will be placing orders and providing "eyeballs" to news websites to see what went wrong, which then drives up the advertising revenue to those places.
OR... something completely different could happen. Who knows. I sure don't.
Looks like it has started. Pull up the 5 day chart. Notice the inflection point at the high of today. The first real reversal since the start of the run. We had some up and down moves on March 4 but still ended the day higher than the previous close. I don't think you will get that today, especially ahead of tomorrow's jobs numbers and the expected market sell off it will bring.
I reversed my options trade on this today. Had initially bought the Sept $40 for $17 the day after earnings came out. Sold a few days later at $22. Then jumped back on with out of the money calls, April $80's (I was the first three bought on that line) for $0.62. Sold today at $1.80. I am now short through out of the money puts, March 22 $70 strike for $0.75. If the momentum fades, people will run for the doors quickly to lock in that astounding move since earnings. Additionally, there are a number of gaps on the chart up to here that will provide some very juicy targets on the way down if you go against the stock.
I've wondered about that too, but it looks like buyers are sifting the market for companies with good earnings forecasts that have been largely ignored in the P/E expansion of the last year. If they price ARII in line with other rail industry/ manufacturing industries names, look for this to potentially grab a 19-20 P/E in the coming weeks.
Interesting that this was in the green during yesterday's sell-off as well-- the company is largely insulated from any negative global news since it is domestic and in a position to serve a secular growth story within the domestic space.
Very likely as well. I just wanted to throw it out there. A rounding bottom over 3-4 years at the tail of a 10 year long flat line. Just might be working that way.
A cup and handle formed on the chart looking back to 2011? Looks like we have a pretty solid cup forming around this level. If we start selling off we could get a handle that might take a few months to flesh out, but there there would be a significant move to the upside following. Would give them the time needed for a few more quarters of results to come through justifying their move into profitability and the stock level.
Would also give plenty of time to load more shares down probably 10-20% off the highs during the handle formation.
Not saying I believe it is likely, but it looks like it could be setting up on the charts. Just throwing it out there for discussion.
kevin, you better do your homework. GE has Jenbacher engines and Waukesha generators that cover all the way down to the 165kW range.
Somewhere around $120 maybe... nice moving average level. It broke right through the 100 today. $120 area takes it to 200 avg... If they have any more disruptions or 787 problems in the near future the 365 avg might be in play---- and especially if the whole market rolls over.
They are ramping production of the 737 which is great for getting the backlog trimmed and possibly getting some nice big orders coming through... but at low $70 million list price it sure isn't going to make up for the 767's coming off the books and the 777's slowing up.
Did they give a reason? I haven't seen a published transcript yet. Wondering if they had to give deep discounts on some 787's to keep them in the order book.
They better be in there using that $10 billion allocation to buy shares hand over fist. Could get some real stock brought into treasury down here. $10 billion at $145 buys nearly 69 million shares. At $129 its 77.5 million. Please let them be buying.
Technicals point to this thing rolling over--- very very overbought with the rest of the market. If momentum gets behind profit taking, this could really start moving south in a hurry. I would peg somewhere around $60 by end of January based on the volume picking up in out of the money puts.
Should we consider this an extension of the pharmacy operations, an extension of Minute Clinic type services, or a mixture of them both serving as a launching ground for further expansion in healthcare/pharmaceutical delivery services?
How is this news when according to the dates you provided these taxes came into effect nearly 11 months ago?
I'm really surprised that IAM didn't push their members to vote yes... after all, when they lose their jobs where are they going to get all of that union dues money from?
IAM might be too short a name... should be I AM soon to lose my job.... ooops!
This has been talked about by the company for nearly 2 years now. It is has been a known factor and is now resolved. The market looks at the future. This court case is no longer part of that future. Since SBUX trades based on out-year earnings and not necessarily on fundamentals, this should have no bearing on the valuation of the company.
A one off to earnings if they have to chalk it to earnings instead of just taking a cash charge from their coffers and credit line to make the payment. Then back to business. Since people are already valuing the company on earnings out to 2017 and further with its growth rate, why should you let something that will happen in the next 3 months cause you any disturbance? If anything, you should raising cash to take advantage of any pullbacks that this may cause. The payout should not upset their future expansion plans as it will not destroy their cash flow. They will still be rolling out Teavana locations, rolling out Columbia stores, rolling out in China and Asia, revamping product offerings in the US, rolling out more offerings for food and juice, rolling more products for Whole Foods and other organic outlets.
There is much more to consider here than a legal suit that has been well-broadcasted for 2 years.
Buying opportunity. The estimated size of the legal suit was well-known. They will owe roughly $2.8 billion and have $3.2 billion cash on the books. Plenty of free cash flow to cover short-term credit to fund any part of this deal. At least now this is known and can be factored into their value moving forward. Over and done with, wait for the details and buy the dip accordingly.
Roughly 100.90- 100.98 range I do believe. Hmmm... Lot of shaking of the tree for weak hands this morning on a revenue miss. They post solid year over year numbers but get hit because they miss the analyst expectations. The company is on track to grow earnings over 11% from last year and with next years estimates, will be roughly 16% growth over $5.55 for this year. Very good price at the moment. $101 for $5.55 full year 18.2 times earnings for a company expected to growth 16% in the coming FY. Pretty low on a PEG ratio.
That would be my target. Nice round numbers for market cap and stock price have worked exceedingly well for both BA and UTX.
Take Ba up to nice round $100.. then up to Market Cap of $100 B. UTX went to nice round $100, then to Market Cap $100.
I supposed MMM played the same round as well.
I would imagine BA joining the $150 team as a final surge, putting them solidly over the $100 B market cap. $150 is another nice looking psychological level that Wall Street seems to enjoy. At that point though one would believe BA would split the stock. BUT-- I think there is a new paradigm at work where DOW stocks don't split because of the heavy weight that IBM used to pull and that now IBM, GS, and V pull, countered only by CVX, MMM, UTX, and BA. If they want to remain influential on the index, they cannot split the stock.
Still fairly priced on a price to sales basis. If they are planning to build the production rate going forward, revenues will only continue to build, making this cheap on a forward price to revenues basis as well.
Funds want growth and diversification. Food play with high growth? Panera-- not growing. Buffalo Wild Wings-- not growing enough. YUM Brands-- too much liability with China scare. MCD-- trend is against them for food, beverages okay but Dunkin Brands and SBUX and Krispy Kreme better. What is left-- Chipotle.
All the funds now need to switch out of the others and into CMG to shore up their portfolios and prove having owned the stock that in the restaurant space that moved $70 on a single day.
Same for tech today. IBM was horrible but Google was great. Which do you think they want to own and have proof of owning? Why else do you think GOOG soared over the $1000 mark while IBM dropped 6.5% this week and is down 19.5% from it's 52 week high while the markets are making new all time highs?
More mechanisms at work here than "It's just over priced burritos!" and all that jibber jabber.