XCO's two issues have seen prices rise recently - that reverses the trend they had been in and is a positive sign for the equity. Earnings coming up, should be interesting.
Root for them, or not, makes no difference if you are trading the trend. At the moment, it is in the middle of the range. Question is, back to 180, or test 200?
It WAS trending towards the bottom of the range, before we got that "new product" tweet. Last time it was trending towards the bottom of the range, we got the "range anxiety" thing. That was good for a trip back to 205, at which point it reversed and headed to 180ish. Now it is headed back up, perhaps to test 200. If it does that, watch for which way it moves. If it tests and fails, play put spreads back to 180 ....
My guess is that it trades sideways until April 30. The overall market could derail that though.
Are you at all familiar with the parties involved from Bluescape? I did not find much out there on them, and what I did find suggests that they are a small player. Am wondering if anyone has any insight as to what should be expected next. The announcement quotes Wilder as saying "We are enthusiastic about immediately beginning to help drive improved performance." Wonder what he means by that?
At least the CEO question is resolved now. Took more than a year to decide to go with the guy they already had. I bet there is an interesting story behind that.
Trying to figure out if this is a dilutive deal out of the gate. The $40M to be bought on the open market won't be dilutive. The warrants in the performance agreement will be dilutive but those are years away from being exercised (if ever). What about the $10M that needs to be purchased from XCO up front; dilutive or not?
At $1.70, that $10M buys roughly 6mln shares, small in relation to shares outstanding so not really material, but wondering what the aggregate holdings will do to the balance of control. Assuming that Bluescape can be counted in Ross' camp, does this put that core group of holders over 50%?
When the stock tests 185, we get tweets to move the market. Sure, the CEO doesn't time his tweets to influence the market. Right, uh huh.
Now to profit from these moves to manipulate the market: last time this scenario played out, the range-anxiety tweet/non-event bounced the stock from 188 to 205ish. The top of the downtrend channel happened to be at 205, and it stopped and turned on a dime, after the whole range anxiety thing turned out to be a non-event.
Now, stock is bouncing off of 183. Top of the downtrend channel is right around 200-201 at the moment. 21 day moving average is 195. The timing of April 30 is so far away, the stock will probably trade sideways below 200 until then. You could put on a 190-200-210 call fly for about $2, nice return assuming the stock gets to the downtrend and then stalls until the event. Or give it a little time today, and see if it can hold the gains on this news, and if not, then the drop to 177 may still be in the cards ...
The stock bounced off of 181, so it still needs to test 177 before it heads lower. It could do that next week ... not sure if there was options pinning today or not,
The next level of support is 185, then 177, then down around 160 (which is the bottom of the trendline if you draw it along all of those lower lows you pointed out). It's been in this downtrend since September.
And if you believe in head and shoulders patterns, the weekly chart has a long term head and shoulder pattern that would test the lows near 120 from Nov '13.
Not even close to oversold yet. My RSI indicator puts it at 43%. It isn't officially oversold until it gets below 30. Same for stochastics - it just flipped bearished, but it's around 50 on it's way down and it needs to get below 20 before it is considered oversold.
Price just tested and failed to break above the 21 day moving average, which is headed down. Plus the bottom of the trading range it has been in is at 187, and then the downtrend channel is in the 160's.
So, if you want to refer to technicals when you say "it is oversold", it is far from it ...
Put spreads have been working while in this downtrend. The trend is still in place, so it may very well be testing 177 before too long. You could trade that move with April spreads.
Wow, not only your first visit here, but your first post ever!
Where did you learn about the 20,000 pre-orders for the X that haven't been revealed?
Musk has publicly stated that he thinks the stock is overpriced, and does not care about the day to day price. You won't find anyone inside the company what will say that "they want you" to buy their shares.
Speculation is, however, at some point there will be additional debt, or a dilutive secondary, where they will want you to buy ....
Today's trade, a small increase on light volume, was essentially directionless. If oil does not rally significantly, the pattern should hold and it should fall to the level you suggest, even lower.
I think you're reaching, perhaps. There are plenty of days with volume just short of today's level. Oil was up today, and it could have been the correlation to oil that moved the stock higher vs. lower. That said, there was no conviction in today's move, and the downtrend is intact, and it should head lower over the next few sessions.