First of all, CLF earned over $1.20 a share in Q4 (non-GAAP) and it earned 66 cents in 2013 Q1. Yes, the price of iron ore is down since 2013 Q1, but with their long term contracts, it is not a dollar for dollar decrease. CLF has cleared over $500 million in debt since 2013 Q1, cut overhead expenses and cut cap-ex spending. CLF did experience cold weather conditions where they limited their shipments of iron ore and have problems processing pellets as the water would freeze them together. Given that, I expect to see a 15% decrease in production over 2013 Q1. All the overhead cost cuts should offset any decrease in the price of iron ore so I maintain they will make 50 cents in 2014 Q1. That is about a 60% decrease over Q4 which is more of a cut than in the past.
CLF will release any extraordinary charges or expenses ahead of time that will affect earnings. But you really need to pull apart the past 4 quarter earnings to understand the make up of CLF's business and estimate the earnings based on that. You should be able to come up close to the tones sold and the price. Overhead stays fairly constant and you can easily figure the interest savings. I can tell you the analyst are throwing out numbers for the benefit of their clients and they don't represent a true estimate. For that, you must do the work. Skittle has done the work and he is as close as you can get. I maybe off on my estimate of 50 cents, but I am much closer than no earnings.
It might have to do with the news coming out of Ontario yesterday and today on the progress of the Ring of Fire area.
From Republic of Mining:
"VANCOUVER, April 1, 2014 /CNW/ – Discovery Harbour Resources Corp (51% owner & Operator of the Wabassi Project, Northwestern Ontario) (“DHR” or the “Company”) (TSX-V:DHR) is pleased that a framework agreement was entered on March 26, 2014, between the nine Matawa-member First Nations and the Province of Ontario to move forward with a negotiation process on a community-based regional approach to development in the Ring of Fire mineral province. This will include development of an access corridor which is planned to pass through the Wabassi Joint Venture’s claim group located between Eabametoong and Marten Falls settlements."
Looks like they are making progress to open this area up, CLF will back on line with chromite. Or at least the value of their holdings will more than double.
Could it be that Credit Suisse is using the Paris exchange? Is Littlewood's real name is LeWood? Could be very interesting headed into the last day on the exchange.
I see your point, but still the market pulls off the very bottom line earnings to compute the PE for all companies. CLF lived with a negative PE because of a non cash impairment charge which I believe is not correct, but that is just the way it is. What I really have a problem is the effects of analyst with a motive throwing out a ridiculous low number that pushes up their forward PE.
Still their PE is below the industry average and their forward PE is way off the mark! The market needs to view exactly what you are seeing.
CLF needs to look long and hard how much attention HFT is getting in the media, they need to direct the media to devote half the attention towards the problems around uncontrolled short selling with absolutely no transparency.
I think he was directing his comment towards johnson, not you.
My target for CLF is $38 and iron ore should be in the $135 to $145 range. What I am against is the people that publish iron ore going below $100 and CLF going to $10, reality does not support those numbers. It is China moving towards becoming a developed economy that will move the markets forward.
The Chinese outlined earlier that they cannot increase consumption without building out infrastructure first. For example, they can't sell new electronics without first expanding the electronic and wi-fi grid. Same applies to transportation, energy and housing. And when consumption increases, domestic steel demand will increase as well.
"By shifting the focus of its economy towards consumption, China is essentially putting a billion new consumers into the world market and the impact is likely to be dramatic, says the chairman of global exporter Li & Fung.
"Something very interesting is going on in China comparable to 1979 when Deng Xiaoping opened up China," William Fung told CNBC on Wednesday, referring to the former Chinese leader who opened up the economy and paved the way for a period of spectacular growth.
"What's happening now with China switching gears and emphasizing the consumer market is like China putting a billion new consumers into the world's consumer market and I think the impact will be just as dramatic [as 1979]," he added.
In order to put China's economy a more sustainable growth path, Beijing hopes to move the economy from one driven by investment to one where domestic consumption plays a much greater role. "
It was the S and P removal of CLF from the 500 index and the addition to the 400 index. Looks like they matched up the buys from the 400 with the sells from the 500 at the closing price of 20.04 and then there was additional buys to the 400 at market. Looking at the transactions, I am thinking about 6 million shares were bought on the open market which should have an impact on the shares available to trade.
We will see tomorrow?
new targets as old ones are proven not to be true. From bankruptcy to high debt to low earnings to high cost. Now they have settled on removal off S and P 500, China slowdown, falling iron ore prices. Well, the removal from the S and P 500 was a non event, iron ore is rising and China infrastructure stimulus will drive China higher. What next abstract projection will they hang their hat on next? Will good earning this quarter finally move the shorts to cover? Will a settlement between Casablanca and CLF's management move the company to effectively attack the short position?
It seems to me that the shorts have more to worry about the long abstract projection into the future! If only we had a company that would talk more about these topics to the markets!