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Starbucks Corporation Message Board

w999surf 829 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Jun 25, 2012
  • w999surf w999surf 20 hours ago Flag

    Since I have to leave, I will help you out here.

    On page 71 of the 10Q is a table. If seaborne china iron ore goes to $30, CLF will get $35 to $40 for the Asia Pacific ore and will get $75 to $80 for their US iron ore pellets. Now APIO cost excluding DD and A is $34.72 a ton, so they will be cash positive on that one. And USIO pellet cost excluding DD and A is $62.84, so they will be cash positive on that one too. All of this does not take in consideration of production and cap-ex cost cuts. Not to mention the tax gains computed at year end.

  • w999surf w999surf 20 hours ago Flag

    Since CLF sells iron ore pellets in their main market, what will be the price for those?

  • Reply to

    Happy thanksgiving

    by mlefkowitz Nov 25, 2015 10:04 AM
    w999surf w999surf 22 hours ago Flag

    Thanks, if LG is reading this, he will get it. Happy Holidays to all, shorts, longs, bashers, pumpers, traders and even all of us that are just plain warped.

  • Reply to

    Happy thanksgiving

    by mlefkowitz Nov 25, 2015 10:04 AM
    w999surf w999surf Nov 25, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    I limit myself to one posting a day… this one is worth it! Happy Thanksgiving to you as well.

  • w999surf w999surf Nov 24, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    This is what I found from Answers, I think they just dumped a bunch of tailing in a big pile:
    "New Cornelia Tailings of Pima County, Arizona is one of the largest mine tailings piles in the world: 7.4 billion cubic feet, the New Cornelia Tailings is often cited as the largest dam structure in the country, by volume (the tailings, waste material from the mining process, were heaped into a pile that created a holding structure for future tailings, some of which were deposited in a pumped slurry, thus the tailings pile is an "impoundment" or dam). The mine that produced the tailings, the 1.5 mile wide open pit New Cornelia Mine, is owned by Phelps Dodge, and is presently in limbo (shut down in 1983)"

    In any case, this proves a tailings dam can be built and be safe. However I think the rain forest of Brazil would create more challenges than the deserts of Arizona. You can bet that S. American countries will be taking a closer look at these dams.

  • w999surf w999surf Nov 24, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    Here is something to think about: The largest dam in the US is in Arizona and it was built with tailings from a mining operation. Does not mean a thing to CLF, just found it interesting when it was on Jeopardy.

  • Reply to

    Can CLF survive with IO $35 ?

    by redposition Nov 24, 2015 5:48 AM
    w999surf w999surf Nov 24, 2015 7:44 AM Flag

    US iron ore pellet prices as of 10/31 was $71.04, so my guess is yes. If DR pellets take off, then absolutely yes.

  • w999surf w999surf Nov 20, 2015 6:27 PM Flag

    No it does not. But read it very carefully, they had to declare bankruptcy because they are unable to service its debts. Now look at CLF. With their current level of liquidity and cash from continuing operations, can they service their debt? If they cannot, please outline the debt that they cannot pay. Just don't say CLF is going bankrupt and the stock is going to zero. You are one of the responsible posters here, I know it because I have all the irresponsible ones on ignore.

    No one here has mentioned the future tax benefits CLF has accumulated through those impairment charges, so look for another sizable refund with the year end filings. Add to it some asset sales, payback on money CLF loaned the CCAA and CLF's cash position is going to expand or their debt is going down. Could Northern Iron say that? Essar Algoma is going through the CCAA process and they got financing to run the CCAA from a bank where as CLF has fully financed the CCAA process for BL and Wabush.

    I know I was not going to post anymore here, but I just can't let this line of discussion to continue one sided. Also I know I will catch flack from some here that I posted again, but that is ok since I have all those on ignore so I won't be answering them. And I am not hiding behind some other ID like many of these people I have on ignore generate.

    Basically, there is a game going on here and LG is part of it. He has an asset that has loss 75% of its value so he wants to be able to buy back the debt at a 75% discount and call it even. So I don't expect anything out of CLF until he makes his bond purchases ahead of announcing asset sales. I can see his point, just don't agree with it.

  • Reply to

    shorts circling square

    by whartonmba99 Nov 20, 2015 3:09 PM
    w999surf w999surf Nov 20, 2015 3:42 PM Flag

    one third the volume of yesterday, just day and swing traders taking a good profit on the run up out of the gate.

  • Reply to

    This company has never made a profit

    by clemfromroids Nov 19, 2015 10:48 AM
    w999surf w999surf Nov 19, 2015 10:54 AM Flag

    Yeah, I thought that about TSLA too… this time bought at the open and put a stop at $13.25 to protect my gain and see where this goes.

  • w999surf by w999surf Nov 18, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    I have finally finished my personal network of people willing to do the research and provide valuable information on a timely basis. Now I don't have to monitor this message board and put up with the countless number of just plain stupid remarks. I will miss the banter with Skittle (Nicknut), maybe I will get a parrot. Good luck to all those holding shares, looking for good news out of the CCAA. Just one point I want to make is that anything posted on this board has absolutely no impact on the price of the stock, just find the news.

  • Reply to

    2015 Steel Imports VS 2014

    by w999surf Nov 18, 2015 2:12 PM
    w999surf w999surf Nov 18, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    Also LG's attack on imports is more based on politics than reality. Plus it is good PR for his customer base that he is behind them and supporting them at every step. It is funny, he out there with PR to support steel companies, but totally ignores the shareholders! Isn't he aware that not telling the whole story, he is only giving shorts more material to use unchecked.

  • Reply to

    2015 Steel Imports VS 2014

    by w999surf Nov 18, 2015 2:12 PM
    w999surf w999surf Nov 18, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    Steel demand is down 7% on the direct cutbacks in energy plus the indirect cuts in construction in these oil regions. So it is realistic that you would see a 8% reduction in imports as well as a 8% cut in domestic production. For the first 10 months of 2015, China's imports to the US is DOWN 20%, so how are they dumping?

    But if you have a 8% decrease in US steel sales in the US, then you would have an 8% decrease in imports and a corresponding 8% decrease in US steel production. If US steel production would stay the same, you would have to have around a 70% decrease in imports to cover the loss of 8%.

    I hope that clears it up for you.

  • Reply to

    Nail in coffin

    by dave976432 Nov 18, 2015 1:30 PM
    w999surf w999surf Nov 18, 2015 2:18 PM Flag

    Typical response I expect from you, personal attack and insults, not a single facts. You can't even provide your source on LG's comments. Read my post about imports 2015 vs 2014. A 8% reduction of total imported steel to the US in 2015 which matches the 7% reduction in US steel demand due to the cutbacks in energy production.

  • From AISI:

    "For the first ten months of 2015 (including October SIMA and September preliminary), total and finished steel imports were 34,227,000 NT and 27,478,000 NT, respectively, down 8% and 1% from the same period in 2014."

    Nobody was complaining about imports in 2014, why making it an issue today? Just another baseless attack by short interest, ignoring the facts. But then there is CLF, only fanning the flames of this fire.

  • Reply to

    Nail in coffin

    by dave976432 Nov 18, 2015 1:30 PM
    w999surf w999surf Nov 18, 2015 2:01 PM Flag

    Go back and look at the historical imports of steel to the US, there has not been a recent dump on the US market, of course that would require you to look. Steel imports have been controlled by a licensing requirements and on an annual basis, it hasn't changed that much. The current downturn in US steel production has more to do about the fall in oil prices and the indirect impact on construction.

    I will help you out a little, AISI has the import data and the US Commerce Dept. has the licensing requirements on steel imports.

  • Reply to

    Essar Creditor's List - Unsecured Creditors

    by thedeathrace Nov 18, 2015 1:31 PM
    w999surf w999surf Nov 18, 2015 1:51 PM Flag

    DIP financing along with a revenue flow, pays for operations going forward as they go through the CCAA process. At the completion of the CCAA, this financing will be paid first ahead of all secured creditors. So as anyone supplying Essar needs to get paid in advance as they really don't want to be thrown into the list of creditors.

    I was really amazed that these coal companies could get so strung out, guess they didn't want to upset their customer by asking to be paid. But all of this shows you how strong CLF is in the US iron ore business that the customers need to follow CLF's rules to get the highest quality, lowest delivered cost and the needed quantity of iron ore pellets. My biggest concern has always been maintain their customer base, this action tells me the customer base does not have a better source of iron ore pellets. Using this strategy, they should easily lock up the DR pellet supply in the US.

  • Reply to

    There it Goes.. SP Spiraling Down in Afternoon...

    by vipinkot47 Nov 18, 2015 12:19 PM
    w999surf w999surf Nov 18, 2015 12:28 PM Flag

    Word of wisdom, when you realize there is a pattern, the pattern will change.

  • Reply to

    Thoughts re China and seaborne iron ore

    by thedeathrace Nov 18, 2015 9:55 AM
    w999surf w999surf Nov 18, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    From AISI, US import data:

    "In October, the largest finished steel import permit applications for offshore countries were for South Korea (364,000 NT, up 31% from September preliminary, Turkey (313,000 NT up 107%), Brazil (189,000 NT, up 72%), Japan (141,000, down 22%) and Taiwan (135,000 NT, up 103%). Through the first ten months of 2015, the largest offshore suppliers were South Korea (4,313,000 NT, down 6% from the same period in 2014), Turkey (2,503,000 NT, up 37%) and China (2,167,000, down 20%)."

    As you can see for the first 10 months, while Turkey may not be as large as China on the world stage, Turkey did ship more steel to the US than China.

  • w999surf w999surf Nov 18, 2015 11:53 AM Flag

    Looking at the breakdown of the projected expenditures, doesn't look like there is enough to pay for all the iron ore they need since they are buying forward and paying premium prices from IOC and X. I am sure CLF is asking for payment of past invoices as well as provisions on being paid for their lawsuit. I still believe CLF's end game here is to shut down this steel mill where they don't have the money to be able to start it up.

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