I don't understand it, all of this is going to get shook out with earnings release, one way or the other. But as you put it, ore shipments are up and iron ore contract prices are holding revenues per ton steady.
I am going to take a careful look at CLF's cost per ton, if it is close to $60, that tells me they pulled Q2 cost into Q1. If depreciation, depletion and amortization cost decrease, that tells me they pulled Q2 cost into Q1.
It was clear that the earnings release was going to a factor in the annual meeting from the very beginning. I just don't know how much was written down in Q1 to insure that Q2 was going to look good. CLF's management maybe smarter than I am giving them credit for and they are allowing all these analyst to trap as many shorts as they can.
I had a CPA review their Q1 filings and he came to the conclusion the bottom line numbers do not support the loss per share they posted.
One way or the other, I plan on hitting the bourbon on the announcement. I know it will be early, but what the heck, need to take advantage of the excuse.
Dear CLF, It is management's responsibility to defend the company against a short attack and that defense should be executed immediately. Learn from HLF, you have to take your response to the public media!
Autos, construction, energy and appliances account for 80% of all US steel sales. We are seeing all these sectors gaining strength.
If CLF post a profit on coal, that leaves the Canadian ore division as the only loser. And with the cutback in ore shipments out of Canada, the loss will be minimal since it is the smallest division in CLF. Looking forward to the the details...
What people don't realize is that we are just beginning the recovery in our economy. News like this is a start.
If CLF post great earnings and maintains control of the company, the stock will go up but it will come back down unless CLF's management address the short attack and deal with that one on one. Posting great earnings alone will not send the stock up, they need to clean up their balance sheet and get down to $1.75 billion in debt. They need to announce some type of stock buyback over the rest of 2014, it doesn't need to be large or they don't need to retire the shares. And finally they need to get out into the mainstream media and Halverson needs to be a recognizable addition to CNBC like Musk or Dimon.
I hope you are right, there are many shareholders waiting for all of this to happen before they place their vote for CLF's management. I won't give CAS much time to build some type of campaign against them. BUT if CLF hits it out of the park, they still need to be in the game and take the show on the road to reinforce their performance. In the past, they posted great earnings and sat back to watch it all disappear to the short attack.
Casablanca may win on all of this mud slinging in the media. But CLF's management will lose it by not taking these attacks head on in the media. Why are they just sitting on their hands? Do they believe cutting cost, improving the balance sheet and posting good earnings is going to get them elected? It is clear they really don't know how to run a campaign. Even the CEO of HLF came on ahead of Ackman's presentation.
"China’s stocks rose, sending the benchmark index to its biggest gain in a week, as materials producers rallied on surging metal prices and speculation grew more cities will loosen property curbs"
Copper is up, see how iron ore reacts when their future's markets close tonight.
And CLF's PR management just does not release news, just the same old proxy statement. Someone should tell them their jobs are on the line so it won't be unexpected when they get their pink slips. Truth is they should fire the whole department, no matter who wins the proxy fight. There are many on this message board that could do a much better job!
"In the week ending July 19, 2014, domestic raw steel production was 1,893,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 78.7 percent. Production was 1,852,000 net tons in the week ending July 19, 2013, while the capability utilization then was 77.3 percent. The current week production represents a 2.2 percent increase from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending July 19, 2014 is down 0.5 percent from the previous week ending July 12, 2014 when production was 1,903,000 net tons and the rate of capability utilization was 79.1 percent.
Adjusted year-to-date production through July 19, 2014 was 52,627 net tons, at a capability utilization rate of 76.7 percent. That is up 0.2 percent from the 52,534 net tons during the same period last year, when the capability utilization rate was 76.8 percent.
Broken down by districts, here's production for the week ending July 19, 2014 in thousands of net tons: North East: 235; Great Lakes: 683; Midwest: 237; Southern: 649 and Western: 89 for a total of 1,893."
We have finally broke above last year's production levels which we should see GDP numbers improving above last year's rate.
How about we wait until earnings come out. I will vote white if earnings are above 14 cents and Gold if they are under. Most of these analyst have been wrong 4 out of the last 5 earnings with being right on 2014 Q1 where they needed Mother Nature's deep freeze to help them out. I don't think the losses on the Canadian operation will be that high because I just don't think they shipped that much out of Bloom Lake. The coal operation had some inventory builds that the cost were realized in Q1 and I would be surprised if they post a loss. And finally, US iron ore had an average contract revenue of $106 and with their cost around $70 with depreciation, depletion and amortization.
The wild card is any impairments on shutting down the Wabush operation, the Pinnacle mine has not shut down yet as it has not reached the 60 day mark yet. Plus CLF should have filed with the SEC by now if there are impairment charges.