Not getting old,
Jeff, please provide something verifiable instead of your senseless posting and I may reply. Just like Imagine, your WS and stock price does not cut it. The only reason I reply to you is that I have the ability to see more about the posters on this board that is available to the general public.
Please do me a favor and outline what causes a company to go into bankruptcy. I will help you out to start with, bankruptcy has nothing to do with the price of the stock, it has everything to do with a company ability to meet their financial obligations. So please tell us how CLF is failing to meet their financial obligations and please do not mention a single thing about the stock price. Mr. Gonclaves is running this company an meeting all of its obligations, just show me where he is failing.
I am truly tired of addressing some of the most abstract postings and I am feeling like the time I took on a Southern Baptist minister at a bible reading (yes I am willing to take on anyone).
Anyway, I know the current buyers of CLF and CASS is no longer the major player. But I can tell you all of the major players are behind Mr. Gonclaves (I use his proper name instead of LG out of respect).
On Freeport, their mistake was to go into oil as well as TCK going into oil sands. CLF on the other hand is pulling back to their core, US iron ore.
You need to read CLF's US contracts. Iron ore could go to $10 and US pellet prices would not go below $70. Furthermore you need to track US iron ore pellet spot prices, they have not fallen below $90. Please research US iron ore pellet prices, CLF's current cost of production in their Asia Pacific division and the price the get for the higher grade iron ore. I have looked at $40 seaborne prices and CLF will remain profitable. The only time it is close is in Q1 when US volumes is low due to weather, but in Q2, 3 and 4 CLF sells off inventories they build in Q1 that adds directly to profits.
I realize what the current market is doing, I also have information about the future. Base on my information I am increasing my position with CLF, you do whatever you want. Casa can sell out tomorrow and it won't have much impact on CLF because there are new players that each hold more than two times the number of shares Cass does. And if you think LG is a puppet for CASS, you would be wrong.
The do have the cash on hand, income tax refund receivable and a sizable amount of inventory. All of it is close to $1 billion and at current market prices for bonds, they could easily retire $1 billion of debt without touching their cash. When looking at the health of a company, read the entire income statement, not just two lines.
You need to answer me this, is CLF going to miss future interest payments or do you think they will miss paying off this debt by 2020? As long as they are making a profit, that profit is after paying interest. And if they are profitable, what makes you think in the worse case that they could not refinance their debt 5 years from now? When will people here realize people are trying to create fear on something that may happen 5 years from now.
CCAA protection applies to the subsidiary, not the parent company. In the end the subsidiary will be no more and the real estate assets of the mine will be owned by CLF if a bidder will not pay what CLF wants for the mine. Without going into the records I am going to say CLF has claims of $5 billion on BL, if a bid comes in at $1 billion and CLF is ok with it ,they will let it go. But if they are not ok with it, CLF just needs to put in a bid at $1 billion one dollar and pay for it out of their claim amount. In the end the subsidiary will be gone and either CLF will own BL or someone else will. But the one thing that is for certain is all of the liabilities will be gone.\
What you need to realize is that we are talking about two separate legal entities, CLF and the subsidiaries.
Please short it some more, I called my broker and told him to lend all my shares to anyone that wants to short this stock.
you only lost if you sell. Unlike others on this board, I give you the facts that are published. I provide you with the sources, no one gives you all of that to make decisions based on further research. I read the basher post every day and none of them provide you with verifiable information, that is all part of the short attack. But if you don't believe in the direction LG is taking or the facts that I lay out, by all means sell now. In the long run I am sticking with CLF as I understand in a world where money is being printed, any company that produces something that hurts when you drop it on your foot, is going to make big gains.
Vip, you problem is you think i am projecting something, unlike others that post here I am giving you the facts and let you decide for yourself. On selling assets LG was screwed over by the previous management knowing they have lost control of the company. Mr. Gonclaves is in full control of the situation and he is making the right decision on what he has to work with today. If I say management is making the right moves, it is because I have researched the situation and I can see the right moves they have made. As far as the future, I can only speculate, but based on CLF's current management, they are committed to make it work. Even the PR department is on board and moving in the right direction.
You were pushing for the change in management and I was not. But after considerable research and conversations, I can assure you that you were right and I was wrong. This management is a no nonsense profit driven group that will not stop until CLF reaches the top.
I will play if you want to talk verifiable facts, not some magic hand of WS… It is why I never debate religion. You have run a business, it is time you pull from your experience and not get sucked into the emotions and realize people are manipulating you.
If you are one of the Wabush employees, I really do feel sorry for you. I had many friends that worked for US Air that lost part of their pensions and wages in the first bankruptcy and then lost all of their pensions and jobs in the second bankruptcy. I have never understood the union's fixation on pensions and benefits in the future. It would be much better to get all the pay you can up front and take care of you own pensions and future benefits. A contract lives as long as both parties are alive, once one of them is gone, so is the contract.
CCAA has ruled on that one. Even if they win a lawsuit, the contracts and pension agreements were between them and the Wabush subsidiary, there is no money there for them and the court said they can't take anymore of the $10 million CLF lent the CCAA to administer the current court actions. All those workers put their trust in the unions and what did they get for all the dues they paid, absolutely nothing except to be unemployed. Unions, First Nations and Canadian taxes are the key reason mining will never be profitable in Canada.
The CCAA action is allowing CLF to take the cost of discontinued operations to zero, otherwise the liabilities associated with BL and Wabush would have been a continued drain on CLF's bottom line.
If anyone makes a statement that is incorrect, just trying to point them in the right direction. For you, keep an eye on your precious stock price, I will continue to keep my eye on the health of the business. In the long run, the price of the stock will trend towards 12 times earnings, once the numbers don't reflect the huge non cash write downs.
There are longs that are willing to lend shares to short this stock and will not sell those shares to shorts to cover. Myself, I am willing to lend my holdings to any short, makes for a much bigger squeeze at the end of the month.
See I am up on my breakfast purchase this morning. Normally I would sell and it would pay for a very nice dinner and top shelf bourbon. But today I am going to hold and let it ride, I have my reasons.
They are managing their current debt. Shorts are worried about 2020, CLF has current liquidity to pay that now if needed. And they have current cash flow to service this debt today to pay all the interest for 5 years.
They continue to generate profits and I project they will make 50 cents a share in Q2.
They have inventories and tax refunds due that can eliminate $1 billion in long term bonds at current bond prices.
All those bonds they buy back at a discount generates income.
Canadian assets are no longer costing them money to hold, CCAA eliminated all liabilities.
Cost cutting has made US Coal and Asia Pacific profitable providing cash to pay down debt by buying bonds at a discount.
If they eliminate $1 billion in debt over the next 12 months, that will increase annual income by $50 million a year.