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Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc. Message Board

wags9999 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 29, 2015 3:54 PM Member since: May 13, 2011
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  • wags9999 wags9999 Sep 29, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    $13B market cap...close to 14x foreseeable earnings...just need a piece of bad news and this thing becomes seriously unglued. It will take years of continued growth to grow into the numbers... I would not be long on a story such as this in this market.

  • Reply to

    Need a value opinion on TXMD

    by navacalera Aug 27, 2015 11:04 AM
    wags9999 wags9999 Sep 26, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    $1.2B market cap is reflective of the bubble in this sector. Book equity at 60mm. About equal to how much money they lost in the last 2 quarters alone...they have burned $100mm+ in 3 years. At this point, this company is just peddling a modest amount of vitamin sales from Boca. Keep in mind there's likely more share dilution coming.

    From what I can tell, the CEO sold his start up in '06 for $100mm...his Cardinal Health story looks misleading to me. These folks seem to just be burning through other peoples capital and are nicely compensated for it and sell side Wall Street seems willing to keep doubling down. The air is coming out of this sector quickly and add to it the volatility in the market this is a dangerous time to be long stories such as this one. When capital dries up in the sector, the end game comes quickly. Tread carefully here.

  • Reply to

    The four stages of a stock market crash

    by badnewsbear2015 Aug 22, 2015 11:52 PM
    wags9999 wags9999 Aug 23, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    I like the thought...but, amending your scenario
    Denial 17000
    Pain 15000
    Panic 13500
    Capitulation 12500
    '08 market fell 60% or so...this rout may only be good for half of that...25-30%.

    $4.50 for CHK... but, they survive. Big buying opportunity coming, but don't grab the falling knife too early!! LOL

  • Reply to

    debt structure

    by jimjones62 Aug 3, 2015 12:32 PM
    wags9999 wags9999 Aug 3, 2015 1:45 PM Flag

    Swift Energy just attempted the same move and found the debt markets were closed to takers. There's around 15 of these E&Ps in the same boat with the bonds around 60 or less and the equity below $100MM. Redeterminations 90 days out...more hurt to come which may finally spillover to the equity markets.

56.45-1.01(-1.76%)Oct 2 4:02 PMEDT