sorry... I forgot to add the Mar 4 info to:
Now let's look at Keryx...
Feb 25 -- $16.80
Feb 27 -- $16.62
Mar 4 -- $16.65
Mar 14 -- $15.11
btw... I bet the missing plane was landed in North Korea. That should drop the markets to my guesstimated figures posted above.
North Korea is where the flying monkeys in the Wizard of Oz came from in case you didn't know.
Choose your closing price for Friday... even the shorts can play if they want to. The winner gets a 3lb can of Lima beans and bragging rights until the April options close.
I'm picking $16.02
pretty much... individual stocks typically have a support level and a 'short' level, they also change in price with what's going on with the company right? so when KERX is getting juiced from a positive catalyst and $ is flowing into FBIOX & XBI more shares are getting bought regardless of the price, people see the positive up ticks and hop on board and then up we go. The inverse also happens when people are selling off FBIOX & XBI, people see downticks and jump off board. example... MGM had some $15 shares, he sold them at $16/17 and then he repurchased them at $15 thinking that was the bottom... trouble was FBIOX & XBI were/are still trending down, people kept selling, the shorts piled on and here we are at $15. If not for the positive CC and CKD news we'd be down around those $14.30/50 levels imo. by my estimation when FBIOX & XBI start going up again and they peak KERX will most likely be back around $17 and possibly over $17.
spend some time looking at 5D, 1M, 3M, 6M & 1YR chart comparisons of FBIOX, XBI and KERX. you'll see a pattern and if you know the positive catalyst dates for KERX you can see the bumps when we got good or bad news and the price gained or dipped independent of the funds.
there's no guarantee to the way I track and estimate any of this... but the patterns I follow and use as a form of guidance with KERX have worked pretty well for me and I've been pretty darn close nailing down the numbers.
Crimea, Weather, QE, Chinese kids not ordering copper and iPads, Obama wiped his rear end with his right hand... it's all fluff. I feel as though we're in the usual correction and consolidation, ebb and flow mode right now in the markets which by my estimation means the S&P is heading to 1820, DJIA is heading to 15900 and the NASDAQ is headed to 4150 then everything gets to go up again.
XBI as of 3/13 is holding 1,340,243 shares of Keryx
If you want to go shopping for individual Bio stocks and try to take advantage of the XBI/IBB dip head to the SPDR® S&P® Biotech ETF page, click holdings, download the list and see what they own right now. Then go to iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF, click holdings and skim down the list.
Of other interest to you and some others here is ACAD. By my estimation** IBB holds 1,154,974 shares and XBI shows holdings at 708,535 shares as of 3/13
(estimation**) IBB doesn't show the amount of shares like XBI does. Basically you take the $ amount they show and divide it by the closing price on the date. IBB shows $30,930,204 of ACAD on 3/13 and the closing price on that date is showing me $26.78 which gives you 1,154,974
"Who's selling?" or "Who's buying?"
Both are pretty common questions here on the board. Of course traders, longs, shorts and all kinds of people buy, sell, short and cover shares every day but quite often the ups and downs have more to do with the larger funds (mutual,ETF) which hold shares of Keryx going up and down. In essence Keryx shares get bought and sold all day long with no thought to the current price. It's that simple really. Just looking at the top 5 funds that own Keryx over the past month here's a few observations.
FBIOX -- 2,473,263 shares reported Jan 31
FBIOX peaked at $228.64 Feb 25 and closed at $213.52 March 14
FBIOX again peaked higher at $228.44 Feb 27
STDIX -- 1,401,702 shares reported Jan 31
STDIX peaked at $35.14 March 4 and closed at $34.12 March 14
ORIGX -- 1,311,300 shares reported Jan 31
ORIGX peaked at $39.78 Mar 4 and closed at $38.73 March 14
IWM -- 1,287,749 shares reported Jan 31
IWM peaked at $119.83 Mar 4 and closed at $117.54 March 14
XBI -- 1,285,655 shares reported Jan 31
XBI peaked at $170.50 Feb 25 and closed at $158.26 March 14
XBI again peaked higher at $170.66 Feb 27
Now let's look at Keryx...
Feb 25 -- $16.80
Feb 27 -- $16.62
Mar 14 -- $15.11
XBI (ETF) to me is the BEST indicator of where Keryx's share price is heading because it specializes in Biotech with FBIOX coming next but it's not quite as easy to gauge. I've been regularly trading XBI since mid 2013 and at one point KERX was the largest holding of XBI. Look for XBI to trend close to $150 before the next run up which should also help carry KERX up once again.
Again as a comparison and why it's important to focus on XBI... starting on Feb 25 until Mar 14
IWM is up 0.88%
STDIX is down 1.59%
ORIGX is down 2.02%
XBI is down 4.95%
FBIOX is down 5.59%
KERX is down 8.36%
In addition using the same time space and as a comparison.
SPY is down 0.14%
IBB is down 6.69%
IBB is another large Bio-ETF I watch and occasionally trade. IBB holds no shares of KERX
Once when I was a kid I tried buying an ice cream bar from an ice cream vending machine for thirty five cents. I put a quarter and two nickels in the slot. The machine held on to the quarter but dropped the nickels back to the change return. I put the nickels back in one at a time. They dropped again. I tried one more time. The machine kept one nickel but not the other. I put the last nickel in again. The machine spit it back out. I didn't have any more change with me. All I had left was one nickel and no ice cream. The machine kept my thirty cents. I got on my bike and went home. The next day I came back with a new nickel and a pry bar from my dads tool box. I put the nickel in and it again spit it back out. I opened the door the ice cream bar should have come out of, shoved the pry bar up into the little elevator that comes down with the ice cream bar and pried down until it dropped an ice cream sandwich. I heard metal parts popping and cracking. I unwrapped my ice cream sandwich and ate it. When I was done I put my nickel in the wrapper and left it inside the door of the ice cream machine, then grabbed the pry bar, put it in my backpack and rode my bike home. I bet the damage to the machine was a lot more than thirty five cents but I didn't care because that ice cream machine wasn't about to keep my hard earned thirty cents.
Don't be so vague... who has your ice cream sandwich?
MGM could certainly do a better job than Richard Daifuku did. Then again... so could my dog.
well... maybe folks like you, Ocker & Nephrocat could co-op something... sort've like a Prop-Think article and state up right front you are Keryx longs.
you don't know unless you try right? you certainly have the passion for it. what's a few hours a day not being here squabbling with Spill & Ice & ???
speaking of Prop-Think... I wish they would come out with an updated KERX article. they almost always do a great job of covering all the bases (good and bad) and they've even given me some great Bio leads over the years.
that's how the big boys get cheap shares or close out short positions
funny though... hit piece comes out... price drops... price goes up
will it be Adam FAUCKSTAIN or from that Bean-Oh dude on S/A first?
I bought 100 shares this afternoon in honor of Bill Gust and his belief in this company.
I know that might sound silly... but I'm a sentimental type.