WIN gained almost 50% in August without the benefit of CSAL doing any deals. Once CSAL does some accretive deals chances are very good its stock price rises. WIN at some point will get a decent price for the CSAL shares they own...about 20% of the company. WIN will deleverage further then. So your answer is yes.
Recognia detects a "Head and Shoulders Bottom" chart pattern for Windstream.
"This bullish signal indicates that the price may rise from the close of 7.03 to the range of 9.50 - 10.10. The pattern formed over 65 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved."
Also believe OTEL is a double in this space. See that board for my reasons.
Here is what I find most amazing about Otelco.
Back before bankruptcy in 2013 when Otelco traded under the symbol "OTT" it had more than $271 million in debt. It was questionable if it could get its credit facility extended by the banks and carried a high risk of Chapter 7. Chapter 7 meant its holders would have received nothing and its senior lenders would have taken a considerable haircut on the debt in liquidation.
Despite the very real possibility of its shareholders being wiped out back then, OTT, the old Otelco ticker, never managed to trade as low as it is today. Checking old charts of OTT, the lowest I could find was a quote of $1.25/share. With the 1 for 5 reverse split factored in at emerging in May 2013 you would have an equivalent price of $6.25/share today. And remember, that was the LOWEST quote I could find for OTT. It generally traded much higher than that.
Today OTEL closed at $5.50/share. Otelco has at minimum $170 million less debt on its balance sheet now than it did in the pre-bankruptcy days. EBITDA has stabilized. Quarterly interest on the debt is a fraction of what it was then. The Market has rewarded this positive progress by awarding Otelco a value today of $1.10/share split adjusted. Remember, the old OTT never reached that low price level despite very real questions about its prospects as a going concern. I've never seen something as odd as this.
With the current volatility in the markets I have a few questions.
After having reduced net debt by $24 million in the last two years ($8.8 million in just the past two quarters) does anybody think Otelco will not get a new credit agreement done before April 30, 2016?
Otelco (with a little help from CoBank in 1Q) has generated $8.9 million free cash flow in just the past two quarters. Do you think banker types would ignore that fact when considering a credit agreement?
Has Otelco ever made one dollar of revenue in China or other emerging markets?
Does the fact Otelco's stock trades now at half the price compared to two years ago when it had $24 million more in net debt on its balance sheet make sense to you?
Is anyone involved here more focused on a successful Otelco turnaround than the officers who stand to cumulatively own up to 10% of the company if certain goals are met?
If you answered "no" to all these questions, hang in there.
Otelco is a post-reorganization stub with a negative beta. It has no correlation with any market index. It doesn't matter if you compare it to the Dow Jones, S&P or Nasdaq. Here is a sample of its recent action.... results are similar if compared to the S&P or Nasdaq:
3 months: Otelco: +21.21% Dow Jones: -9.72%
6 months: Otelco +11.33 Dow Jones: -9.15
1 year: Otelco +12.0 Dow Jones: -3.61
Otelco has reduced net debt by $24 million in the last two years, kicks out around $3 million per quarter in free cash flow, and has a trailing twelve month EPS of $1.88. Further, Otelco derives 100% of its revenue from the USA so profits aren't hurt by the strong dollar. Maybe its just playing "catch up" after being neglected and forgotten by the Market.
Otelco stock price is up around 22% since earnings two weeks ago.
That inflates the trailing twelve month P/E to 3.
Wonder how many other wireline telcos have a P/E of 3.
If CSAL purchases OTEL:
*CSAL does not pay the $2 million-per-quarter interest on the debt OTEL does now.
*CSAL saves on any costs associated with OTEL being public.
*CSAL saves on other costs such as the Board.
^CSAL can operate the company without a restrictive credit agreement that it has now....free to invest cash flow in growth areas, etc.
Seems like a lot of positives here.
Rather, I sincerely hope Otelco explores this avenue (CSAL) before signing a new credit agreement. CSAL would be crazy to not at least be interested in this company.
Eight months and counting...something has to get done here.
CSAL, the first (and only) communications REIT had its inaugural conference call today. They were asked by an analyst if they were weeks, months, or quarters away from announcing at least some initial deals. CSAL replied they're definitely not quarters out and have rejected some potential deals. CSAL said they are getting close to actionable, announceable opportunities. The implication was more like weeks and months. They said the have a large pipeline that they are doing DD on now.
You know what I think? I think you should calm down.
I'm very long OTEL kmx, and assume you are too. Let's just leave it at that.
The ability of management to have more flexibility under a credit agreement is all good. Otelco doesn't have that flexibility under this current agreement.
"new deal for refinancing will be very long term deal...that is why I insist on the fact, that later it will be inked, better for company = better for me. Because they can get much better terms in relations to future costs of such new refinancing... "
The process of a new or even amended credit facility takes time. You're welcome to play chicken with the April 30, 2016 expiration of the current facility but as a stockholder I prefer not to. And I don't think Otelco wants to either.
"I understand that current conditions are restrictive. But I have no proof that any less restrictive conditions will bring immediately higher revenues or dramaticaly less costs."
I didn't say that, nor do I expect a new facility to affect revenue. I just said, based on Otelco's fine performance since emerging from reorganization, I believe they deserve a less restrictive credit facility than the one they have now. And before there is any talk of dividends and acquisitions in the future this has to get done. Soon.
"walk, with all respect shut up about difficulty to obtain funding. they have nothing less than georgeous cash flow from operations. everybody will give the funding...so why the hell now,??"
Kmx...you misinterpreted what I said. What I said was IF Otelco was having any difficulty obtaining a credit facility, then everybody in this wireline space would be in trouble as well. I didn't say OTEL was having difficulty, nor do I expect them to. Otelco has done a far better job than most wireline telcos in reducing debt the last two years. That was the point.
Why would I like a credit facility done now?
Number 1 is it would be a very strong catalyst to Otelco's stock price heading north very quickly IMO. I know Otelco has been much more aggressive reducing its debt than the banks require. You know that too. But believe me, many investors are waiting for a done deal before they "jump in" and purchase the stock. They are waiting for the "all clear" signal. That signal is either an amended or extended credit facility. Remember, Otelco is only two years removed from bankruptcy. Although I thought Otelco's Chapter 11 strategy was brilliant (debt went from $271 million to its current $105.1 million in just two years) there may be investors who are intimidated by a company that recently emerged. Their attitude is "show me" before they invest. A new credit facility will accomplish that.
Number 2 is that the current credit facility is extremely restrictive. Quite frankly, I think its lousy. Anything, even something with a slightly higher interest rate, is better than this IMO. This facility is loaded with restrictions that tie management's hands. The sooner Otelco gets rid of it the better. Otelco's leverage has now dropped to 3.63. There are many wireline telcos with higher leverage than Otelco that have a better, less restrictive, deal with their creditors.
Otelco has reduced its debt by $165.9 million in just two years. It's time to get some respect.