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Dean Foods Company Message Board

walk57 112 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: May 29, 2000
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  • Reply to

    4Q Earnings Guesses

    by walk57 Feb 24, 2015 10:21 PM

    Actually, that's not so bad for someone who doesn't set the bar very high.

    I'll be back Monday night to discuss what happened.

  • Reply to

    Maybe Earnings Leaked That They Are Good

    by stocklearner3456 Feb 27, 2015 7:32 AM
    walk57 walk57 Feb 27, 2015 8:32 AM Flag

    Doubt it. They have been good since emerging from BK in May 2013. OTEL stock, however, has declined by 50% since that time. I have no explanation for that Market behavior, so I have just added when it gets into the $4's. OTEL is much more valuable today, IMO, than it was a year & a half ago when it traded over $10/share.

    Also, it doesn't take much to move OTEL's price either way as only 2,870,948 Class A shares are available to trade.

  • Reply to

    somebody has discovered OTEL, seems like

    by kmx_swing Feb 26, 2015 12:01 PM
    walk57 walk57 Feb 26, 2015 7:02 PM Flag

    According to NADAQ, institutional ownership of OTEL went from 3% in 3Q to over 8% in the 4Q.

    Of course, Aristides Capital is not included in their tabulation, as it owns 8.5% of OTEL by itself.

    My guess is some institutions are playing catch-up now.

    Mike said on the 3Q that there were over 3,000 holders of OTEL stock. My guess is that number isn't that high now.

  • Reply to

    somebody has discovered OTEL, seems like

    by kmx_swing Feb 26, 2015 12:01 PM
    walk57 walk57 Feb 26, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    OTEL belongs at triple its current price, IMO. Traded over $10/share a year & a half ago with $20M more debt on its balance sheet than it has now. Hope current holders aren't eager to sell down here.

  • Reply to

    4Q Earnings Guesses

    by walk57 Feb 24, 2015 10:21 PM
    walk57 walk57 Feb 26, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    CNSL reported year end results today. It said its TTM net debt to EBITDA ratio was 4.15x. The banks love them.

    OTEL's TTM net debt to EBITDA ratio is ($114.4 debt - $5.8M cash = $108.6M divided by TTM EBITDA of $29.4M) 3.69x. How low does OTEL have to go before the banks show some love here?

  • Reply to

    4Q Earnings Guesses

    by walk57 Feb 24, 2015 10:21 PM
    walk57 walk57 Feb 25, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    If we are correct about a $3M debt reduction in the 4Q, OTEL will finish 2014 with a total debt reduction of $17.2M, much higher than its current Market Cap.

    Not many companies do that.

  • 4Q and year-end OTEL results will come out Monday after the bell. Always fun to take a shot at the numbers since no analysts cover OTEL. Feel free to add your guess or pick apart anything here:

    4Q EBITDA: $7.4M. OTEL's 2/2 press release announcing the earnings date said access line equivalents were essentially the same as the 3Q at 99,000. Some of the inherent "lumpiness" of this business was slightly negative for OTEL in the 3Q. If that reverts and Reliable Networks begins to show some growth this number is attainable, IMO. Especially if hosted PBX & business line equivalents continue their recent positive trend.

    4Q Revenue: $18.6M. OTEL has a chance for the first time in a long time IMO to show an actual slight increase in revenue versus its previous quarter. 3Q revenue was $18.4M.

    4Q EPS: $0.40/share. This is slightly lower than the three previous quarters due to what I expect to be some dilution because of the recently enacted Stock Incentive Plan. The awards are based on EBITDA, revenue, and net debt, but we don't know what the threshold for those are. Still, OTEL enters the 4Q with an EPS of $1.31/share through the first nine months of 2014. A $0.40/share number would put it over $1.70/share for the year.

    Another $3M in debt reduction. At some point the Market cannot ignore the job OTEL has done in this area since emerging from BK in May 2013.

    Would really like to hear if there has been some progress on an amended and/or extended credit agreement.

  • Reply to

    Why Does FRP Trade At Almost $18/Share?

    by walk57 Feb 22, 2015 9:26 PM
    walk57 walk57 Feb 24, 2015 4:26 PM Flag

    Then don't read my posts. I just wanted to know why everybody has a much higher EV/EBITDA number for FRP than you two posters. I continue to suspect it is because of different interpretations of "adjusted EBITDA." Different methodology, that's all. There are still accrued pension & healthcare liabilities, even though the pension plan is closed to new employees.

    I wouldn't hold your breath for that dividend anytime soon. WIN did $0.03/share today and it wasn't pretty. As for FRP, its just a question of how much they'll lose in the 4Q.

  • Reply to

    Why Does FRP Trade At Almost $18/Share?

    by walk57 Feb 22, 2015 9:26 PM
    walk57 walk57 Feb 23, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    Even the way FRP calculates its "adjusted EBITDA" it would need about a $71M 4Q to achieve a TTM EBITDA of $260M. That is very optimistic considering the trend the last few quarters. The methodology must be different for the way others calculate FRP's EBITDA because they come up with about half that. Also appears FRP has some large accrued pension obligations and accrued post-retirement health care obligations....possibly the new contract gives them some relief on that.

    Good luck if you're long here, but I'm staying away.

  • Reply to

    Why Does FRP Trade At Almost $18/Share?

    by walk57 Feb 22, 2015 9:26 PM
    walk57 walk57 Feb 23, 2015 3:13 PM Flag

    What I find odd here is FRP's "adjusted EBITDA" numbers are different from everyone else's EBITDA number. If you could enlighten me as to why that is I'd appreciate it. Also, your input numbers to come up with a 5.4x EV/EBITDA for FRP.

    Also, FRP has a negative book value and per its 3Q report has seen its total access lines go from 878,704 at the end of 4Q/13 to 825,270 at the end of 3Q/14. I would think that line loss trend will continue in 4Q/14, or even more likely accelerate because of strike effects.

    Not long or short here value invstr. Just trying to understand why FRP trades at what I believe are nosebleed levels.

  • Reply to

    Why Does FRP Trade At Almost $18/Share?

    by walk57 Feb 22, 2015 9:26 PM
    walk57 walk57 Feb 23, 2015 8:28 AM Flag

    I got my figures from Capital IQ. This is not a hit piece. Anything else here you would like to discredit as non-factual? Lumping companies like LVLT & CCOI with wireline telcos is is odd. OTEL EV/EBITDA is lower than HCOM & ALSK.

  • First off, congrats to the unions. Now I ask why FRP trades at nearly $18/share. After all, this is a stock board.

    1. FRP has lost over $92 million in the first 9 months of 2014. All of that time was pre-strike. I believe it will be worse in 4Q when JCC & company were handling operations.

    2. FRP has permanently damaged its name in northern New England. Don't believe me? Read the company's report to the Maine PUC. Just because this issue got resolved, doesn't mean that customers who have been neglected for 4 months will come back. The options are much better when total disregard is shown as it was here.

    3. FRP has the highest EV/EBITDA in the wireline biz.

    4. FRP does not pay a dividend. Which makes #3 even worse.

    5. For some reason, the hedge funds that own 95% of FRP shares took FRP's stock price up more than 5% on Friday because news of the settlement. FRP's goal was to break the unions. They did not do that, instead agreeing to many concessions. This was not good news for them.

    6. FRP is going to incur substantial costs associated with its 4-month unproductive activity with the unions. Union-busting outfits from Georgia aren't cheap.

    7. There is no wireline telco that is currently more overvalued by the Market on numerous metrics than FRP.

    8. The systems that FRP uses are still in place, unions or not. Ask the unions how productive they are.

    9. FRP will not be able to sell at a profitable price these northern New England properties now that they have signed on to a new deal. Nobody will want these terms.

    10. Upper management is in serious question here. CEO Sunu assured northern new England that FRP had adequate "contingency plans" in place. He was wrong as strong evidence has pointed out. . FRP's goal was to bust the unions. It failed, or it wouldn't have backed off its "take it or leave it" demand for $700 million in concessions from the unions.

    Good Luck longs!

  • Reply to

    Now slowly to 5.50

    by kmx_swing Feb 21, 2015 1:28 AM
    walk57 walk57 Feb 21, 2015 8:35 AM Flag

    I believe what OTEL has done operationally in the last year and since emerging from BK in 2013 has mattered, but according to the Market it hasn't. OTEL stock price performance in the last three months: -2.6%. The last year: -10.8%. OTEL's stock price is down more than 50% since emerging from BK in May 2013 despite the fact that today OTEL's debt is just under $20 million lower than it was then and alot of uncertainty has been removed. Steady EBITDA. Positive EPS.

    This disconnect between company performance and company stock price is unsustainable. We'll see in a week.

  • FairPoint hits a new 52-week high today after news it settled its 4-month-old strike with the unions. Details of the contract aren't known yet...but it doesn't seem to matter. The hedge funds that own 95% of this stock are exuberant. No doubt they'll be downright giddy if FRP beats "by a penny" it's 4Q average analyst projection of a loss of $1.42/share.

    FRP trailing twelve month P/E: N/A because it has no earnings. TTM EPS: $-3.29/share.

    OTEL TTM P/E: 3.98. TTM EPS $1.25/share, with another favorable comparison coming in 4Q.

    I guess "the professionals" see something here that I don't.

  • Reply to

    Aristides Capital

    by walk57 Feb 17, 2015 1:16 PM
    walk57 walk57 Feb 19, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    GRT Capital adds 30k OTEL. UBS Group new position of 2K. No decreases of any material number by those institutional holders that report.

    I think we're running out of knuckleheads willing to sell their 100 shares under $5.

  • New Aristides Capital 13G/A SEC filing toay. 243,775 shares. 8.5% of OTEL Class A outstanding!

  • It happened again Telco. My guess is because you used copy & paste.

    I'll say it without that feature. Sessa Capital IM, L.P. disclosed a 124,055 share stake in OTEL as of 12/31/14.

  • Reply to

    No new posts

    by maine_ard Feb 9, 2015 3:13 PM
    walk57 walk57 Feb 14, 2015 12:07 PM Flag

    At the rate fairpoint is losing customers I'm not sure that the company will throw in the towel first. And by throwing in the towel I don't mean trying to come up with a compromise with the unions. Wonder if the board will give sunu a raise or a few more stock options for that wonderful strike contingency workforce he put in place. We should get a firsthand look at how much money he saved the company in the 4Q real soon if the company is capable of issuing a quarterly report. Judging from the Maine PUC report, she aint gonna be pretty.

    BTW, how does the weather up there look this weekend?

  • Reply to

    FTR/OTEL Comparison

    by walk57 Feb 9, 2015 8:08 PM
    walk57 walk57 Feb 11, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    At OTEL's current valuation I'm surprised somebody hasn't tried already.

  • Reply to

    All time high...

    by chidragon38 Feb 10, 2015 3:16 PM
    walk57 walk57 Feb 10, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    Also at least double will bethe amount of shares currently outstanding when they actually get around to doing this deal next year. That's how FTR is paying for this. Massive dilution obviously isn't a worry here or with some of the analysts.

    Also, Verizon noted in their presentation that these assets being sold to FTR were for a multiple of 6.2x trailing twelve month adjusted EBITDA. Somehow, FTR thinks it will be for "3.7x 2014 Pro Forma Day 1 EBITDA." Good luck with all that.

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