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Dean Foods Company Message Board

walk57 75 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 18, 2014 7:02 PM Member since: May 29, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Priced Near Liquidation Value

    by walk57 Jul 16, 2014 8:49 PM
    walk57 walk57 Jul 18, 2014 7:02 PM Flag

    Another day where somebody does a 180 share trade right at the close (after day orders expire) to knock the price down. So we had a $4.84 bid and a trade for 180 at $4.76.

    Somebody did a 1 share trade (that's right) at close to knock the price down the other day.

    C'mon people. Get a life.

  • Reply to

    For you Walk

    by telcotales Jul 18, 2014 10:20 AM
    walk57 walk57 Jul 18, 2014 1:00 PM Flag

    Gotta like the zero debt & their expansion plans. $1.16M TTM EBITDA? That is small.

    Somebody could make alot of dough eliminating OTEL's debt & going private. And the price to do so is attractive now.

  • Reply to

    Priced Near Liquidation Value

    by walk57 Jul 16, 2014 8:49 PM
    walk57 walk57 Jul 17, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    The games have been going on for awhile King. Yesterday right before the close it appeared intermarket sweep orders were executed below the bid price. Someone wanted a $4.75/share close. Easy to do in an illiquid stock such as this.

    I guess the answer is to go private. Maybe someone who wants to heist the company at a ridiculous price is doing this.

  • Reply to

    Priced Near Liquidation Value

    by walk57 Jul 16, 2014 8:49 PM
    walk57 walk57 Jul 16, 2014 10:31 PM Flag

    BTW, intermarket sweep orders are increasingly being used to tank the price like they were just before the close today.

  • OTEL is getting real close at its current quote. Let's see if they can take it there.

    Why someone doesn't steal this down here is a mystery to me.

  • Reply to

    SIP SEC Filings

    by walk57 Jul 11, 2014 7:03 PM
    walk57 walk57 Jul 15, 2014 10:32 PM Flag

    That's my take. Which, according to management will be beneficial to EBITDA.

    Speaking of which, OTEL now is the cheapest telecom to my knowledge right now on an EV/EBITDA basis. With LICT's recent run-up, OTEL passed it. Many companies in OTEL's space are much more expensive by that metric. Judging from OTEL's stock price, nobody noticed.

  • Reply to

    Market Caps..

    by walk57 Jul 4, 2014 12:34 AM
    walk57 walk57 Jul 13, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    You are correct King. There is absolutely no reason for Otelco to continue as a public entity. It's time to go private. It would be best for the Company, and as you said, very profitable for the acquirer.

    At your $150M price, somebody would be paying under 5X TTM EBITDA for OTEL. As mentioned earlier, CNSL just paid 7.3X for ENVE.

    As you also said, removing the debt results in an immediate savings to the Company of $9.3M in annual interest expense based on OTEL's reported 1Q/14 quarterly interest expense of over $2.3M. This bank agreement is not in the best interests of the Company or its shareholders.

    OTEL's Chairman has extensive experience in Private Equity. He knows this is not the way for OTEL to continue operating. It's time to do something.

  • The BOD have their shares per SEC filings. What about management?

    Short interest spiked in the last couple weeks. Not getting any of mine.

  • Reply to

    Market Caps..

    by walk57 Jul 4, 2014 12:34 AM
    walk57 walk57 Jul 4, 2014 8:00 PM Flag

    I'm surprised someone hasn't stepped up yet without our help. The messy stuff (9M in restructuring costs) is already out of the way.

    OTEL had operating income of $4M in the 1st quarter. That is with virtually no contribution from their new cloud business. That takes awhile to grow. You'll see in OTEL's 1Q report the hosted PBX continues to grow and that is without the implied point by management that other carriers are eager to partner with OTEL in that area. That could be a source of fast growth.

    Bottom line King is that the valuations for all companies in OTEL's space (not just LICT & ENVE) have skyrocketed in the past year. And in that time OTEL has shed another $10M in debt in that period. I have positioned myself for when the market gives OTEL a little love.

  • Reply to

    Market Caps..

    by walk57 Jul 4, 2014 12:34 AM
    walk57 walk57 Jul 4, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    I will add that your $150M buy out guess for OTEL is conservative considering CNSL just forked over $350M for ENVE.

  • Reply to

    Market Caps..

    by walk57 Jul 4, 2014 12:34 AM
    walk57 walk57 Jul 4, 2014 4:49 PM Flag

    Happy 4th to you as well!

    OTEL as of 1Q/14 has net debt of $116M. That will drop by a minimum of $2M in the 2Q.

    Under your $150M buyout scenario, OTEL's stock right now is worth $11/share. $150M buyout price - $116M net debt = $34M. 3.1M shares outstanding.

  • Are getting laughable:

    ENVE: $220.5M.
    LICT: $86M.
    ALSK: $88M.
    FRP: $377.5M.
    FTR: $5.9B....that's right, a B.

    OTEL: $15M.

  • Reply to

    Class Action Suits

    by telcotales Jul 2, 2014 10:04 AM
    walk57 walk57 Jul 2, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    Who would have thought ENVE would have to deal with this after a deal in which the acquirer paid 7.3x TTM EBITDA. Like I said telco, OTEL (provided it doesn't go bankrupt) is screaming cheap here.

  • Reply to

    Multiple Of ENVE Deal

    by walk57 Jul 1, 2014 8:11 AM
    walk57 walk57 Jul 1, 2014 9:54 PM Flag

    It's funny actually. About ten law firms are investigating ENVE's Board for "breach of fiduciary duty" because they believe the deal was inadequate for ENVE shareholders. Hello? ENVE has a nice broadband network but they also have a declining landline biz and a very thin margin equipment business. When you have all these lawyers circling the wagons after a company pays 7.3x TTM EBITDA for a business such as this you know valuations are going up. FTR is in the process of paying a ton for AT&T's Conn. landline biz so this is not an isolated event.

    My math was a little off in the first post. If you apply a 7.3x TTM EBITDA multiple to OTEL you get the following.

    OTEL TTM EBITDA: $30.5M.
    $30.5M X 7.3=$222.6M.
    OTEL net debt: $116M.
    $222M - $116M = $106M available to shareholders.

    Hypothetical? Yes. But is OTEL extremely undervalued in this environment? Absolutely.

  • While there are differences between ENVE & OTEL, there are also similarities as well. If you apply the hefty multiple CNSL paid ENVE (7.3x TTM EBITDA) to OTEL, you would find OTEL would not be trading at a $15M Market Cap. More like $75M, including the debt taken out.

  • Reply to

    Consolidation

    by walk57 Jun 30, 2014 9:55 AM
    walk57 walk57 Jun 30, 2014 5:56 PM Flag

    The multiple CNSL paid for ENVE was 7.3 times TTM EBITDA.

    ENVE debt at the end of 1Q was $134.8M.

  • It's happening.
    CNSL takes ENVE (formerly Hickory Tech) today for $16.50/share or around $350M.

  • Reply to

    OT - Still not too late to buy MNKD

    by kingedxxxxx Jun 16, 2014 8:28 PM
    walk57 walk57 Jun 29, 2014 8:27 PM Flag

    I don't own any and am not a part of the huge short crowd you talk about, but it better be a blockbuster at a market cap approaching $4B.

  • Reply to

    51K Today

    by walk57 Jun 20, 2014 7:46 PM
    walk57 walk57 Jun 23, 2014 6:50 PM Flag

    7K today. That's more like it.

  • Reply to

    51K Today

    by walk57 Jun 20, 2014 7:46 PM
    walk57 walk57 Jun 20, 2014 9:38 PM Flag

    Weird because who sells this many shares on a Friday in the summer? They (whoever they are) knows the average volume is a couple thousand every day. You are correct. If this was a month ago the stock would have been slaughtered IMO. Somebody on a Friday in the summer was willing to take those shares of somebodys hands.

    This is nuts.

    FWIW, purchased 200 shares today. Didn't think I was going to.

DF
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