I like some of Loeb's plan but not all of it. What you're looking at right now is the Liveris plan. Loeb wants a breakup.
I just compared last year's goal to this year's goal per Liveris memos to employees. Somewhere along the line he dropped the goal back from 10 million to 9.3 mil. We'll meet it I feel sure, but I think he had to comp for the price fixing fine. If he adds in the couple mil from asset sales (not sure if he can add it to EBITDA or not) we will exceed the new lower goal. However, I do not think the lower guidance has escaped the notice of fund managers. Plus, I feel very weird about meeting the sustained Buffett pps. I just don't think Buffett will let it kick him out unless he's ready. Maybe with the new love affair between Liveris and Loeb, he will want out. Investors don't seem to be impressed. Anyway, Buffett is a wild card factor for this stock that even blowout earnings can't overcome unless Buffett wants it to.
So nobody wants chlorine. I hope no one thought we would have gotten a trillion dollars for it. I just watched a rerun of the old movie Wall Street. Reminded me of Buffett. We won't get rid of him until he's ready to go.
Is there a problem with Loeb and Liveris working together rather than being adversaries? Maybe it's just a coincidence....
If Liveris would work with Loeb, taking some of his good ideas and tabling the ones that aren't clearly beneficial at the moment, everyone would be happier. I think the company would benefit. Unfortunately, I think Loeb's video skewed some truths in order to try for everything he wants.
Liveris put out an internal statement to employees which I won't copy but I don't think it's any secret that Liveris can say that Third Point is lying. And he is right, Third Point didn't accurately measure performance on today's data. It's too bad because there are good ideas in there but the inaccuracies taint the whole ball of wax. Why do activists tend to be so hostile? An objective approach with compromises would be optimal in my humble worthless opinion.
I don't see anything wrong with performance based bonuses. I'm not sure base salary should be tied to it. The bonuses are the big thing anyway. I don't mind it as much when the stock is roaring and I see big bonuses being passed out. It's when the company is performing poorly that I feel big bonuses are out of line. Low line employees get penalized bonuses for poor company performance which is beyond their individual control.
It always looks better for a company to have free cash so I can understand that part. Selling businesses, well, you have to sell something that will sell. Can't get much for your dogs, Kuwait means about $250 million a year to Dow. While it doesn't sound like that much, it can make a difference on a close quarter.
All that stuff about insiders buying and dumping...it's a problem since they know the game plan and outsiders have to guess. Loeb is going to gain steam if Dow unasses Buffett. I don't think Dow should break up the petrochem biz but Loeb does have a point about actually pricing the products being used downstream within the company. The way it's done now, the profit potentials are way too murky.
If the Fed raises interest rates soon, yes, the dividend needs to compete. I can see some of the strategy but the big picture seems garbled and risky to me. But what do I know. I don't get paid the big bucks.
Dow is getting smaller and smaller with every PR. It isn't like the company hasn't been doing well. The extra dividend & buyback comes with a high price to the business. Hope it's worth it.
Tstorm, This method works as good as any:
Swing a dead chicken over your head 3 times.
Collect the feathers that fall off the chicken. Wait that many days, then buy.
Put a bowl of water on your back patio.
Add water periodically to keep the bowl half full.
At the first sign of green algae in the bowl, sell.
Hope this helps. By the way, I knew your post was a joke and it made me smile so thanks for that. I hope you understand the same of mine. Good luck :)
I don't know what demand is slowing. OPEC is why oil prices are down. They're trying to keep us from becoming energy independent. I can see no downside for chemicals due to lower oil based energy feeds. i think Dow still has interests in a nat gas export venture (while being against nat gas export). Guess it's a hedge bet. Otherwise, I just don't see anything to depress Dow from cheaper oil. JHMO. Dow is on track to make its 9.2 mm goal for the year but the stock price does its own thing.
Aren't taxes really high on quick flips that aren't option exercised buy/sells? I though it took a hold of 12 months to avoid outrageous tax treatment, especially relevant on that kind of money.
Congrats to all who did not give in to panic. It's hard to resist weak handed trading. I know because I was very weak when I used to day trade - which is why I don't do it anymore. Great confidence call on your parts Rwc and Ten. Good luck all.
I also think QE end is a big thing but if a person is an investor they're still going to look at a company that's making money. This company is. Pps has been to almost $55 less than 12 months ago. Considering that, $47 is a bargain with $8+ upside. I wish instead of insider info being questionably guarded, it would get put out to everyone. It cannot be completely controlled so everyone should have it for free. Looks like your being out right now is a good decision. This should have popped on earnings.
Hi Rwc, I felt pretty sure that earnings would not be bad. Liveris sent out a synopsis via Intranet and that's all I've read but it looked phenomenal as you say. I have seen this stock sell off after a good earnings report in the past but it looks like it sold off ahead this time. Think the billion $ fine has something to do with sluggish upside? I don't know what is affecting the market but it's bigger than Ebola and the Canadian shooting yesterday. As always, good luck.