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Ruby Tuesday, Inc. Message Board

wall_street_titan 118 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 30, 2015 8:03 AM Member since: Jan 27, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Just Listened to the Call

    by wall_street_titan Apr 29, 2015 9:24 PM
    wall_street_titan wall_street_titan Apr 30, 2015 8:03 AM Flag

    The fact of the matter is that the new rules in Japan were designed for data just like these. Safety HAS been demonstrated and there are definite signs of efficacy in the

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • wall_street_titan by wall_street_titan Apr 29, 2015 9:24 PM Flag

    I think that it was a well done call that credibly explained why the optimism on stroke that Athersys is projecting is justified. The reality is, however, that this optimism can only be confirmed if Chugai (or another partner) takes this forward in Japan which is the path of least resistance and the low hanging fruit. I believe the odds are good that Chugai will see these data they same way that Athersys does and take this to the next step in Japan. Just my opinion and everyone heard the same things I did and can draw their own conclusions.

    WST

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bullish Report from MAxim This Morning:

    by wall_street_titan Apr 21, 2015 7:31 AM
    wall_street_titan wall_street_titan Apr 21, 2015 12:56 PM Flag

    Directly in the Maxim report, can't provide a link. Just remember that all the conferences in the world aren't worth a positive word from Chugai or insider buys from Athersys management.

    WST

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bullish Report from MAxim This Morning:

    by wall_street_titan Apr 21, 2015 7:31 AM
    wall_street_titan wall_street_titan Apr 21, 2015 10:32 AM Flag

    Just because they are quiet does not mean they are not busy trying to move this forward. One thing I'll say about GvB, when the UC results showed nothing, he never tried to sugar coat it. We've seen many CEOs take bad data and try and spin it to a point of silliness. I recently recall reading about one company, forgot which one, that incredulously just decided to ignore the placebo effect!

    A 36 hour result seems like a very reasonable subset of data to look at given no other stroke therapy can come close to that. However, I can think of only two signals that will get investors completely convinced: 1) Chugai goes forward 2) management steps up and buys shares

    WST

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bullish Report from MAxim This Morning:

    by wall_street_titan Apr 21, 2015 7:31 AM
    wall_street_titan wall_street_titan Apr 21, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    ..the info about the CC is in the Maxim report.

    WST

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bullish Report from MAxim This Morning:

    by wall_street_titan Apr 21, 2015 7:31 AM
    wall_street_titan wall_street_titan Apr 21, 2015 8:03 AM Flag

    They can't do it alone. The key here is obvious. We need to see the Chugai partnership go forward in Japan with their cold hard cash in order to turn the bullish talk about the results into a bullish reality. The irony here is that if they had kept enrollment capped at 36 hours the stock price would have suffered from the painfully slow completion of the trial and investors would have been complaining incessantly. Instead, we have a completed trial with failed end points but a clear indication that expanding the trial treatment window backfired. One would think that Chugai will look through all the noise and understand what the data mean but until it happens we remain situated at the lower level of Pergatory.

    WST

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • wall_street_titan by wall_street_titan Apr 21, 2015 7:31 AM Flag

    Jason Kolbert of Maxim is extremely bullish. Series of conference calls next week.....

    Conclusions:
    MultiStem appears to be able to extend the treatment window in stroke from a few hours to 36 hours. That is dramatic.
    1)As an informative PII study, we are excited because the data are clear and suggest that a modestly powered pivotal trial should be able to replicate the sub-group data set that this trial produced.
    2)The risk/reward equation is highly favorable. Safety and tolerability are not an issue, so the question is: What is the treatment window? We know the dose work is close, and the endpoints work.
    3)Addressing the bears. Bearish investors will focus on the fact that the trial did not show a p-value on the primary endpoint(s). We believe the bears' concerns are more than reflected in Athersys' low market valuation. 4)The pathway forward in stroke is now clear. We expect that Athersys will pioneer forward with a global pivotal trial (US, EU, and Japan). As such, our valuation metrics and subsequent price target are unchanged. In other words, stay the course. We believe that, as plans for the next clinical phase are announced, valuation should rebound.

    • More than half of the treated patients were in the 36-48 hour time period. On
    the whisker plot (Exhibit 3), the graph shows efficacy (upper right side) in the
    treated group and AEs all improved vs. placebo when we look at only those
    patients treated in the 24-36 hour window.
    • We are bullish on Athersys because of what the data are saying to us. What
    it says is that there is a strong signal. We expect to see Athersys announce
    plans to move forward in a PIIb/III global trial in the US, EU, and Japan (with
    Chugai [4519-¥3,519-NR] on board).
    • We hope to announce a series of conference calls with Athersys management
    and KOLs next week, where we will review, in detail, the presented data and
    hear from the doctors in the trial regarding what they saw.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why the PR is a spin

    by dr_sumitchawla Apr 20, 2015 12:45 AM
    wall_street_titan wall_street_titan Apr 20, 2015 4:21 PM Flag

    I disagree with your assesment. I believe there have been a few trials that show tPA combined MR that have shown excellent results. Here is one that was stopped early because it was working TOO well: ejmDOTorg/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1415061 So I can easily see how this could boost both the treated and control group and "confound results" and it would be even worse if the control group had a higher proportion of these patients. That is a piece of info that would be useful.

    WST

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • wall_street_titan by wall_street_titan Apr 17, 2015 7:37 AM Flag

    This is disappointing news no doubt, but the hope here would be that Chugai would go forward in Japan with a small bridging study in Japan that narrows the treatment window from 24-48 hours to 24-36 hours. This window is still significantly better than tPA. I expected better but unlike UC, it looks like there is something there and it will be up to Chugai to make the decision move forward.

    WST

  • Reply to

    Athersys' very courteous secretary.

    by scistats Apr 16, 2015 3:23 PM
    wall_street_titan wall_street_titan Apr 16, 2015 3:56 PM Flag

    I have no access to their research.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Athersys' very courteous secretary.

    by scistats Apr 16, 2015 3:23 PM
    wall_street_titan wall_street_titan Apr 16, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    Well they already said the results would be presented on April 19th. It seems like they are sticking to that script to make a splash on the stroke key opinion leaders. I still say that it is more important to release BAD results promptly because that is where the legal risk lies. No one sues Athersys for releasing blockbuster results on Sunday when that is the date they had already announced.

    WST

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Athersys' very courteous secretary.

    by scistats Apr 16, 2015 3:23 PM
    wall_street_titan wall_street_titan Apr 16, 2015 3:37 PM Flag

    Ask yourself this question. Would all of senior management fly to Glasgow for their own funeral? Or for a celebration? Every piece of circumstantial evidence, not to mention the research in both pre-clinical studies AND humans , lead me to believe this sell off has nothing to do with the outcome of the trial. I'm in for the release of the results. I've done my DD as must everyone else.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • wall_street_titan wall_street_titan Apr 16, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    1. There is no problem as you ignore the 8-30 day treatments that make up the bulk of the trial.

    2. The number of cells DOES matter.

    We will have the answers soon enough. While acknowledging the risks, I feel comfortable that this will work.

    WST

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • wall_street_titan wall_street_titan Apr 15, 2015 10:22 PM Flag

    I saw this trial mentioned on Twitter and there are some significant differences that work in the favor of Athersys:

    1) treatment window was 7 to 30 days vs 1-2 days for ATHX.
    2) average cell count 258 million vs. 1.2 billion for ATHX.
    3) autologous BM derived cells from older patients vs. screened Multistem from young donors. Older patients' BM derived are known to lose viability as a patient ages.

    There are others but these are the main factors that make the outcome of little value in predicting Sunday's results, IMHO.

    WST

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • wall_street_titan wall_street_titan Apr 15, 2015 5:53 PM Flag

    I see virtually no possibility of a capital raise just two days before such a significant corporate event.

    Think about it for a second:

    1) If the results are bad, weather they have been unblinded or not, they would be sued up the yinyang for selling shares and not disclosing the results first.
    2)If the results are good and they KNOW about them, why would they raise capital when they have another $7,000,000 from Chugai by next week and a much higher stock price.
    3) Who would purchase shares from any company trying to sell them BEFORE such a significant event with such huge implications?

    WST

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • wall_street_titan wall_street_titan Apr 15, 2015 2:16 PM Flag

    By your statement you are assuming the results will be leaked by Friday? Share price movement prior to the results is meaningless unless there has been a leak and people are illegally acting on it.

    WST

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • wall_street_titan wall_street_titan Apr 15, 2015 1:53 PM Flag

    Not trying to boost anyone's confidence, just sharing my thoughts. Stop orders won't work if the results are bad because it will gap lower. I'll say it again, you've got to be able to sustain a significant loss for the chance at participating in the huge upside.

    WST

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • My take on today's action: There are many traders who are only interested in playing the expected run up in ADVANCE of the stroke results and never intended to hold THROUGH the results.They are the ones selling today and are piling on each others' sell orders this morning, panicking each other. I'm committed to be in Athersys through the results based upon everything I have learned through my own DD over the last 5 years. The immediate upside is so large and I want to participate. However, what I do should have absolutely no bearing on what any other investor should do. Anyone who cannot withstand a failure here should not be in the game. The short sellers are also in full force today trying to scare the #$%$ out of everyone but they KNOW less than most and have no idea what the results will look like. Good luck to those who stay in.

    The stroke presentation is still on the calendar for this Sunday. Nothing has changed.

    WST

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thank You WST!

    by cytxadrc Apr 14, 2015 2:34 PM
    wall_street_titan wall_street_titan Apr 15, 2015 7:39 AM Flag

    You're welcome, bc767

    WST

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Thank You WST!

    by cytxadrc Apr 14, 2015 2:34 PM
    wall_street_titan wall_street_titan Apr 15, 2015 7:39 AM Flag

    You're welcome Lediana

    WST

    Sentiment: Buy

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