I wish more people would do their DD on what this means and how the short shares get counted. Thinking that there will be buying pressure because of this relatively high short percentage. Just not so. I'm sure there are many articles out there on how hedge funds "lone" shares to each other or "short". But trust me, they are not short. My guess is there are very very few true short positions out there.
Every little bit of selling meet with a heavy buyer. Could be HFT playing with option spreads, but could be another patient buyer. Have seen it a couple times in the last 2 weeks.
Hedge funds are almost ALWAYS hedged against their own shares. That's how they make money. You can see that in this case, you have ownership numbers exceeding float. Clear sign that a large fund or hedge fund is holding their own shares short. And there will not be a squeeze.
I agree. I don't see any reason to take much off. But there traders who just made 15% and that's huge for a trader. If you're a trader and not taking profits at 15%, you won't be a trader for long.
I don;t think 4k every gets to SOC level. I think it will always be up to the physician and his patient. On the other hand, clinical practice guidelines (CPG), will certainly lean towards heavy use of the test. And reimbursement guidelines will be key to CPG. You don't need SOC to make this test heavily favored over biopsy.
Leaked FDA finishing up paper work. Next week. But it's so anticipated? Reason for spike? I kinda doubt it. If so we will be some "sell the news." JMO
Nice little battle today with profit taking vs buyers.
Sure it has. Om more that a couple occasions. Most recently in January on the run from $10 - $14. But I watched it happen on L3. Now the bids are showing up here and there, but not blocks like there was on last run. I know who got that run. This one I'm still chasing...but I will find out.
That there is about a 90% change that this s. platmum is a long right? I don't see the posts. just the deleted chain so I can only assume he is still posting about being short...but that's just not logical. No one chases a position that long and for what would have to be massive losses. So have fun with it if you must, but don't be his huckleberry.
Why does he do it? Attention of course.
I can normally track this kind of buying. One day, ok they can hide. Two? Almost never. Whoever it is is buying the shares BEFORE they hit the ECN. And they aren't afraid to pay. Huge order, in the millions. Oh and don't be surprised if the short numbers go up as well. If short interest drops by 5 million or so, then something else is going to take place in next few days or so.
I know from another source that an advertising campaign has been "in the can" for a month or so. And that would not be rolled out until at least one major insurer is ready to announce coverage on 4K.
I really like this action. It's certainly not a head fake.These shares are going into strong hands.
You've seen that commercial "fraud protection...frog, fraud?? LOL Yes we are definitely on the same page!
With all do respect, you kinda said the same thing I did but disagreed with me? the 4K test will not be first line screening. A standard PSA or DRE will be. IF the doc thinks he needs to order a biopsy. then you get a 4K before the biopsy.
OK at least yo have a formula. My guess is most that are throwing around the $100 don't.
That being said, you take the high side, I take the low. 20% market share IMPO is to high. Certainly for the foreseeable future. You have to walk before you run. So take 5% and move up from there. And can you demand the same multiple as a BIIB or AMGN? Arguable.
But thanks for sharing your numbers again. I like to see what those that are will to do a little DD come up with..
You can play all you want. I try and deal in whats probable for my investments. If I get a home run instead of a double or triple, so be it. What happened to my reply to your fist scenario?
Why are you guys looking at the TOTAL PSA market when you talk about 4K? It is NOT a PSA test. It is only used if a biopsy is ordered. OPKO labs has a PSA test. To get a number for 4K you need to take the percentage of cases that require biopsies and then what percentage of those will use 4K. Now IF the test becomes SOC, the second part becomes easy to figure. Until then, not so much. It will take more than a couple years to build the market.
40-60% net profit margin??? Wow. I will give you the $5B in sales but no way can I agree with a net margin of even close to 50% Frost will continue to spend money on R&D and of course acquisitions. I might go 20% but will be happy with 15% NET profit margins.
No I am long WAY LOOOONG !
I explained my position and why I don't believe you will see a squeeze. A squeeze is so rare and this stock, with the way it is held and hedged, does not set itself up for it. Does it put some pressure on the upside on days like today? Sure, but not much IMPO.
Now let me make this clear. I take low estimates of what I believe pipeline is worth. I then take sales and project out to future profitability. I don't give 10x sales to get to $100/share. Thats not a good valuation for me. For a company to get 10x sales, they better be really really profitable. EARNINGS is key. And it's coming. Soon. But until then this should be range bound. $13 -$20 Ya that's a big range but it's the way I see it. I buy on all dips, Have never sold a share. Drives my investment guru NUTS!! But its not a large part of my portfolio but my gains are huge and he thinks I'm crazy not taking some off. But I won't until I feel it really over bought (right now that would be $20)
They had an order to sell. Pretty large for them. So they put there brokers on it. Not sure how they did. But I doubt they caused any ruffles.