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Aeterna Zentaris Inc. Message Board

walstretguru 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 24, 2015 12:35 PM Member since: Sep 21, 2012
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  • walstretguru by walstretguru Feb 11, 2015 10:12 AM Flag

    I know many of you already know this but here it goes anyway.

    Short interest does not mean that that many investors are hoping for a drop in share price. I think this is especially true for OPK and here is why.

    First, I know for sure that many hedge funds are now "shorting against the box" and have been for a long long time. They started this in the $5.50 range and have been doing it all the way up. What is that mean? They are simply shorting to hedge an already long position to protect profits.

    Second, because the float is pretty low compared to shares outstanding, firms must borrow shares from other firms to sell to clients. Those borrowed shares now are now added to the short interest because they are borrowed. But the person that borrowed them are long the shares, not short.. There is really a secondary market in most securities, especially those with a low float.

    And finally, there are many short positions that are net long options.

    So don't count on a squeeze. IMHO it wont happen here. But what will happen is OPK will remain a real problem for any retail shorts. They are left holding the bag for what they thought was a good short because the hedgers did a great job of selling it to help move the price lower while taking long positions.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • walstretguru by walstretguru Mar 12, 2015 7:10 PM Flag

    The rumors that hit the street so strong some 45 days ago had a very strong sentiment to it. I only repeat what I hear and when it more than a couple key players doing the talking, I tend to believe there is more than just a little to it. I believe the stock was trading around 9 at the time and the rumor price was $15-$17.

    And it picked up again today. No real number from the people I spoke with, but if you extend that same premium, you get $23-$25. I am sure they would get it done at that. But the problem is, there are just too many buyers on the sideline and they are keeping pressure on the stock. You can't believe what one hedge fund tried to throw at this last week to get some stops triggered in the high $12's. Tried dumping blocks and they did not even make it to the ECN.

    And they keep making some very stupid retail shorts believe that short is the place to be by taking huge long options and hedging with a fraction of short position, thus increasing short float. Believe me guys, there are no retail shorts taking new positions here. Its all hedge. Shorting their own shares but are very net long options.

    Nose to the ground and thinking this is going up in the next few days should this new rumor have legs like the last one, No doubt there was a buyer, price just got away from them soooo fast.

    PS Cramer was told to tell his people "no more buying." They don't want this going to $20 before a deal is done.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Interest

    by walstretguru Feb 11, 2015 10:12 AM
    walstretguru walstretguru Feb 11, 2015 11:08 AM Flag

    I have no proof as in paper work I can present to you. But then I have no proof that the sun will rise tomorrow, I only go off the fact that it has risen for the last 100 billion years and so it will happen again and again. Same with hedge funds shorting the box. They do it and don't give a hoot about the tax implications. Thats what they do. Hedge. And as long as a stock is moving, either up or down, they hedge. Some people believe hedge funds make all their money on big moves in their positions, Not really true., They make money by controlling huge blocks of stocks and taking small gains from large moves. And are always hedged.

    The second part? Firms borrow shares from other firms all the time. If they do, those shares are now lent out and are in the short ration as a rule.

    Been up and down this street and melted a lot of ice with these guys. I have a pretty firm grasp what is going on.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • walstretguru by walstretguru Feb 13, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    Even though I am over 75% sure this will close near green today.I promised myself no mater what happened today I would sell these 5000 shares, I took on 10K in the last 10 days that were meant for a trade but as you know it just kept going higher so I'm up 15% on those, taking me over 50K shares. I can't just keep adding to one position Regardless of how great it is. So Tribeca $2000 for the party OK? You all have a great weekend!

  • Reply to

    Short Interest

    by walstretguru Feb 11, 2015 10:12 AM
    walstretguru walstretguru Feb 11, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    ?? Their short is not hedging against a gain, it;s hedging a loss in stock value. Protecting gains. So the stock can double all it wants and the hedge is still in place. They just short more to protect the higher gains. hence why the short interest just keep raising with the price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • There is that myth that putting a in sell order at $100 will keep your shares from being lent out. Sorry guys, in a margin account its just not true. In the margin account agreement a broker can lend out your shares, as well as allowing you to borrow (short) from others. Only a cash account shares can't be lent out if requested. You can't change the rules of your account mid stream and request that your shares be held in your account only. You can transfer the position to another a seperate cash account if you wish.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    RSI at 81.7,

    by cl124cl Feb 6, 2015 9:45 AM
    walstretguru walstretguru Feb 6, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    I think someone else said that at $12. The thing about RSI, it gets destroyed by momentum runs. It only works about 50% of the time and typically with stocks that have developed a nice trend line for months on end. Just not the case with OPK.

    I thought there would be a pullback almost every trading day. We got ONE. This has momentum and any pullback has been met with buying and covering.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This is well orchestrated and was all done for the sole reason of buying shares. And of course I was buying a trade, Has not been many opportunities for this. Nice thing is the rookies were buying at $13.90 and above on the up days. Now they are out. Perfect set up. Will I make $5000 on it today? Doubt it. But $1000 -$1500 will take care of diner for two at Mr. Chow.

  • Reply to

    15 coming ...

    by bronxrealtyco Feb 11, 2015 10:05 AM
    walstretguru walstretguru Feb 11, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    Because there is a buyer, not a short covering. Even better.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Interest

    by walstretguru Feb 11, 2015 10:12 AM
    walstretguru walstretguru Feb 11, 2015 11:51 AM Flag

    lee

    If I want to maintain my position long, and protect gains, the cheapest and cleanest way to do it is short it. Hedge funds do it all the time.

    And as you stated, when a firm is net short, they may very well buy the stock to manipulate some gaps. But that's a different animal than hedging..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • walstretguru by walstretguru Feb 6, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    And it's still green. Real problem for those looking to get in. All it has done is created a gap UP not down. Oh and any retail shorts that don't take advantage and cover. well I guess they are pretty screed anyway, Except for the pretend short. And I put him on ignore after I found I he has 5 id;s, one saying he is long.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • walstretguru by walstretguru Feb 13, 2015 10:27 AM Flag

    In 5000 to trade @ $13.21

  • Reply to

    Short Interest

    by walstretguru Feb 11, 2015 10:12 AM
    walstretguru walstretguru Feb 11, 2015 12:36 PM Flag

    Absolutely correct. You are subject to wash rule with the short shares. Its a new position.

  • walstretguru walstretguru Mar 24, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    4 million shares did not trade hands on a single trade, Its nothing more than a fund booking shares into customer accounts. Most likely a closed end fund.

  • walstretguru walstretguru Feb 6, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    A 30-40% premium would be about all you could expect. So the board would take that at ANY time. And so would I. Long term it will be worth more all things being equal, If the market corrects 20% so does OPK.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • walstretguru by walstretguru Feb 13, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    How can this be legal making money like this?

  • Reply to

    Fake Drop

    by leehab22 Feb 13, 2015 11:15 AM
    walstretguru walstretguru Feb 13, 2015 11:21 AM Flag

    They are smarter than you think. When they have a large order to buy, they will sell in blocks to create selling. It's all HFT and they know exactly how much to sell. Problem is there is still a lot of hidden buyers that are not tipping their hands until they pull the trigger. But an astute retail trader can jump on and off the dog and be very profitable.

  • Reply to

    when to trim

    by weggie61 Feb 13, 2015 6:51 AM
    walstretguru walstretguru Feb 13, 2015 9:07 AM Flag

    If you are using the gains to pay bills, then you should have never been in the stock. What happens if it would have lost 50% of it's value? Sounds like bills may have not gotten paid?
    I'm sure you have heard the one about pigs and hogs?

    Well I'm holding almost a quadruple on many of my shares and I'm not selling yet. But then I could lose every dime of the investment and sleep just fine.

    You should be selling all but a handful of shares and never ever feel like you missed a run if. You can't afford not to book a big gain here.. JMHO

  • The shares did not some in like they had hoped.

  • Reply to

    Keep your stock out of the short pool

    by cl124cl Feb 7, 2015 9:18 AM
    walstretguru walstretguru Feb 7, 2015 10:16 AM Flag

    Do you have a cash or margin account?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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